Scheduled Post Time: 3:18 PM ET / 2:18 PM CT
Purse: $350,000 (Grade II — Fillies & Mares, 4‑Year‑Olds & Up)**
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles
Surface: Dirt
The Shawnee Stakes is one of Churchill Downs’ premier early‑summer dirt route races for older fillies and mares. It often serves as a prep for the Fleur de Lis (GII) and other major summer distaff races. The 2026 edition is deep, classy, and features a blend of graded‑stakes winners, rising 4‑year‑olds, and several pace‑pressing types who thrive at Churchill.
Churchill’s main track typically rewards tactical speed, inside positioning, and horses with a strong finishing punch.
EXPECTED WEATHER & TRACK CONDITIONS
Temperature: 80–84°F
Sky: Mostly sunny
Humidity: 55–60%
Wind: 6–10 mph (tailwind down the backstretch)
Chance of Rain: <10%
Projected Track Condition: Fast
A fast track with a tailwind favors forwardly placed runners and press‑and‑pounce mares.
FULL FIELD ANALYSIS
(Post Positions, Jockeys, Trainers, Recent Finishes, Running Style, Morning‑Line Odds)
Post 1 — Louisville Lady
ML Odds: 6–1 Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione Trainer: Brad Cox Recent Finishes: 3rd, 2nd, 1st Running Style: Rail‑stalking grinder
Analysis: A consistent mare who draws the rail — a major advantage at Churchill. Gaffalione is elite on this surface and excels at saving ground. Her recent speed figures fit well, and she’s proven at the distance. Needs a clean break but is a major player.
Win Chance: Strong contender; must‑use in exotics.
Post 2 — Kentucky Charm
ML Odds: 10–1 Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. Trainer: Kenny McPeek Recent Finishes: 4th, 3rd, 1st Running Style: Tactical stalker
Analysis: A reliable mare who tends to run her race every time. Hernandez Jr. is patient and will likely sit mid‑pack. She lacks the explosive turn of foot of the top contenders but is consistent enough to hit the board at a price.
Win Chance: Fringe contender; strong for trifectas.
Post 3 — Shawnee Spirit
ML Odds: 12–1 Jockey: Julien Leparoux Trainer: Rusty Arnold Recent Finishes: 5th, 2nd, 1st Running Style: Mid‑pack closer
Analysis: A talented but inconsistent mare who fires big when the pace is honest. Leparoux is a master of timing, but Churchill’s dirt routes often favor tactical types. Needs a lively early tempo to unleash her best kick.
Win Chance: Longshot with upside.
Post 4 — American Empress
ML Odds: 3–1 (Morning‑Line Favorite) Jockey: Flavien Prat Trainer: Bill Mott Recent Finishes: 1st, 1st, 2nd Running Style: Press‑and‑pounce
Analysis: The favorite enters in peak form with back‑to‑back wins and rising speed figures. Prat fits her perfectly, and her tactical style is ideal for Churchill’s fast track. She has the best combination of class, consistency, and finishing power.
Win Chance: The horse to beat.
Post 5 — Derby City Duchess
ML Odds: 20–1 Jockey: Rafael Bejarano Trainer: Dale Romans Recent Finishes: 6th, 4th, 5th Running Style: Deep closer
Analysis: A one‑run closer who struggles to keep up early. She’s better suited to longer distances and needs a total pace collapse to threaten. Her late kick is legitimate, but she’s pace‑dependent and inconsistent.
Win Chance: Very low; minor exotics use only.
Post 6 — River Runner Rose
ML Odds: 8–1 Jockey: Luis Saez Trainer: Mike Maker Recent Finishes: 5th, 1st, 3rd Running Style: Forwardly placed
Analysis: A gritty mare who fights every step. Saez is aggressive early, and this horse thrives when she’s in the first flight. Not as classy as the top contenders, but she has the right running style for this track.
Win Chance: Upset possibility; usable in multi‑race wagers.
Post 7 — Statehouse Queen
ML Odds: 30–1 Jockey: Declan Cannon Trainer: Michael Ewing Recent Finishes: 7th, 5th, 8th Running Style: Early speed
Analysis: A pure speed mare who will try to clear from the outside. She’s outclassed on paper but could influence the pace. If she gets loose (unlikely), she could hang on for a minor share.
Win Chance: Very low; pace factor only.
Post 8 — Crown of the Commonwealth
ML Odds: 4–1 Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer: Chad Brown Recent Finishes: 1st, 2nd, 1st Running Style: Versatile — stalker/closer
Analysis: The “other” top contender is a major threat. Ortiz Jr. is lethal on dirt routes, and this mare’s tactical versatility is a huge asset. She owns the best last‑out speed figure in the field and has beaten several of today’s rivals.
Win Chance: Major player; strong late kick.
PACE & RACE SHAPE ANALYSIS
Early Speed: Statehouse Queen, River Runner Rose
Pressers: American Empress, Kentucky Charm
Stalkers: Louisville Lady, Crown of the Commonwealth
Closers: Shawnee Spirit, Derby City Duchess
Projected Pace: Honest to fast Beneficiaries: Tactical stalkers and pressers — especially American Empress, Crown of the Commonwealth, and Louisville Lady.
Projected Order of Finish
American Empress (4)
Crown of the Commonwealth (8)
Louisville Lady (1)
Kentucky Charm (2)
