First Pitch: 7:07 PM ET
Venue: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario
Surface: Artificial Turf
Probable Pitchers:
- MIA — Janson Junk (RHP)
- TOR — Chase Yesavage (RHP)
Weather Outlook (Toronto, ON)
Note: Rogers Centre’s retractable roof eliminates most weather impact.
- Temperature (outside): 66–69°F
- Wind: 8–12 mph blowing in from left field
- Humidity: ~60%
- Roof Expectation: Likely closed
- Ballpark Impact:
- Closed roof → neutral to slightly hitter‑friendly
- Turf increases ground‑ball hit probability
Injury Report
Miami Marlins
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. — Day‑to‑day (hamstring tightness)
- Jake Burger — OUT (oblique strain)
- Jesús Sánchez — Probable (wrist soreness)
- Edward Cabrera — OUT (shoulder)
- A.J. Puk — OUT (elbow)
Toronto Blue Jays
- Bo Bichette — OUT (knee sprain)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — Probable (hand contusion)
- Kevin Gausman — OUT (forearm)
- Jordan Romano — OUT (elbow)
- Alejandro Kirk — Day‑to‑day (illness)
Team Records & Recent Form
Miami Marlins (25–29)
- Last 10: 5–5
- Road Record: 11–15
- Run Differential: -27
- Trend: Pitching improving; offense inconsistent
- Key Note: Marlins have scored 4+ runs in 6 of last 8 wins, but 2 or fewer in 5 of last 7 losses
Toronto Blue Jays (25–28)
- Last 10: 4–6
- Home Record: 13–13
- Run Differential: -19
- Trend: Offense weakened without Bichette; bullpen thin without Romano
- Key Note: Jays have allowed 5+ runs in 7 of last 10 losses
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
MIA — Janson Junk (RHP)
- 2026 Stats:
- ERA: ~4.39
- WHIP: 1.31
- K/9: 7.6
- HR/9: 1.1
- Profile: Sinker/slider righty; relies on weak contact
- Strengths: Effective vs. RH hitters; induces ground balls
- Weaknesses: Struggles vs. LHB with lift; limited swing‑and‑miss
- Matchup Fit: Toronto’s left‑handed bats (Schneider, Varsho) have power upside
TOR — Chase Yesavage (RHP)
- 2026 Stats:
- ERA: ~3.54
- WHIP: 1.18
- K/9: 10.0
- HR/9: 0.9
- Profile: Power fastball/slider with plus changeup
- Strengths: Misses bats; excellent vs. RH hitters
- Weaknesses: Can be hittable early; occasional fastball command lapses
- Matchup Fit: Miami’s RH‑heavy lineup (Arraez, Bell, De La Cruz) is a favorable matchup for Yesavage
Key Player Matchups
Marlins Hitters vs. Yesavage
- Luis Arraez: Contact machine; could exploit early fastball command
- Josh Bell: Power threat but inconsistent vs. high‑velocity RHP
- Bryan De La Cruz: Hot May; strong matchup vs. sliders left up
Blue Jays Hitters vs. Junk
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Elite vs. sinkers; HR threat even with roof closed
- Daulton Varsho: Pull‑side power fits turf bounce and Junk’s LHB vulnerability
- Davis Schneider: Excellent vs. RHP; strong OBP profile
Series History
- 2024–2026 Combined: Marlins lead 7–5
- At Rogers Centre: Teams split 3–3
- Scoring Trend: 6 of last 10 meetings have gone UNDER
Betting Trends
Miami Marlins
- 4–1 last 5 as a road underdog
- UNDER 6–3 last 9
- Junk: Marlins are 4–6 in his starts
Toronto Blue Jays
- 3–6 last 9 overall
- UNDER 7–3 last 10 home games
- Yesavage: Jays are 6–4 in his starts
Head‑to‑Head
- UNDER 6–2 last 8
- Road team is 4–1 in last 5 matchups
Game Odds
Miami Marlins 7.5
Toronto Blue Jays – 165
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, May 24, 2026
