First Pitch: 6:40 PM ET
Venue: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Surface: Natural Grass
Probable Pitchers:
- CHC — Ben Brown (RHP)
- PIT — Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP)
Weather Outlook (Pittsburgh, PA)
- Temperature: 68–71°F at first pitch
- Wind: 7–10 mph blowing out to left‑center, mild boost for RH pull hitters
- Humidity: ~55%
- Precipitation: <10% chance — no meaningful delay risk
- Ballpark Impact: Slightly hitter‑friendly due to warm air + outbound breeze
Injury Report
Chicago Cubs
- Seiya Suzuki — Probable (hamstring tightness; expected to play)
- Christopher Morel — Day‑to‑day (wrist soreness)
- Julian Merryweather — OUT (forearm strain)
- Jordan Wicks — OUT (oblique)
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Oneil Cruz — Probable (minor ankle tweak; expected in lineup)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes — Day‑to‑day (back tightness)
- David Bednar — OUT (lat strain; bullpen weakened)
- Marco Gonzales — OUT (forearm)
Team Records & Form
Chicago Cubs (29–22)
- Last 10: 6–4
- Road Record: 14–12
- Run Differential: +27
- Trend: Offense heating up; pitching stabilizing after early‑May slump
- Key Note: Cubs have won 4 of their last 5 vs. teams at .500 or below
Pittsburgh Pirates (26–26)
- Last 10: 5–5
- Home Record: 13–13
- Run Differential: -6
- Trend: Inconsistent offense; bullpen shaky without Bednar
- Key Note: Pirates have scored 3 runs or fewer in 6 of last 9
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
CHC — Ben Brown (RHP)
- 2026 Stats:
- ERA: ~3.58
- WHIP: 1.18
- K/9: 10.4
- HR/9: 0.9
- Profile: Power fastball (96–98), sharp slider, emerging curveball
- Strengths: Generates whiffs vs. lefties; excellent road ERA
- Weaknesses: Occasional command lapses early in counts
- Matchup Fit: Pirates’ lineup struggles vs. high‑velocity righties (bottom‑10 MLB OPS vs. 96+ mph)
PIT — Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP)
- 2026 Stats:
- ERA: ~4.41
- WHIP: 1.34
- K/9: 8.2
- HR/9: 1.2
- Profile: Sinker/slider mix, induces ground balls
- Strengths: Effective vs. RH hitters
- Weaknesses: Vulnerable to LH bats with lift; struggles 2nd/3rd time through order
- Matchup Fit: Cubs’ left‑handed core (Bellinger, Busch, Happ) profiles well
Key Player Matchups
Cubs Hitters vs. Mlodzinski
- Cody Bellinger: .286 career vs. sinker/slider RHP; HR threat with wind to LF
- Ian Happ: Pittsburgh native; .370 OBP in May
- Michael Busch: Hot streak (.310 last 15 games), strong matchup vs. sinkers
Pirates Hitters vs. Brown
- Oneil Cruz: Power threat but high K% vs. high‑velocity arms
- Bryan Reynolds: Best contact bat; .295 career vs. CHC
- Rowdy Tellez: Could exploit Brown’s occasional fastball command misses
Series History
- 2025–2026 Combined: Cubs lead 14–10
- At PNC Park: Cubs have won 7 of last 10
- Scoring Trend: 7 of last 9 meetings have gone UNDER the total
Betting Trends
Chicago Cubs
- 5–1 last 6 as a road favorite
- UNDER 7–2 in last 9 games
- Brown: Cubs are 6–3 in his starts
Pittsburgh Pirates
- 2–5 last 7 vs. NL Central
- UNDER 8–3 last 11 home games
- Mlodzinski: Pirates are 3–5 in his starts
Head‑to‑Head
- Cubs 4–1 last 5 meetings
- UNDER 6–1 last 7 in Pittsburgh
GAME ODDS
Chicago Cubs – 122
Pittsburgh Pirates 8
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, May 24, 2026
