First Pitch: 7:05 PM ET
Venue: Yankee Stadium — Bronx, New York
Broadcast: Sportsnet / YES Network / MLB.TV
Venue Profile — Yankee Stadium
- Location: South Bronx, NYC
- Capacity: ~47,300
- Park Factor: One of MLB’s most hitter‑friendly parks
- Home Run Profile: Extremely favorable to left‑handed pull hitters
- Run Environment: High scoring, especially in warm weather
The short right‑field porch dramatically boosts HR probability for left‑handed bats and right‑handed hitters who can go opposite field.
Weather Update (Forecast for First Pitch)
- Temperature: 72–75°F
- Wind: 10–13 mph blowing out to right field
- Humidity: ~60%
- Chance of Rain: <10%
- Impact: Major boost to left‑handed power — ideal Yankee Stadium hitting conditions
Injury Report
Toronto Blue Jays
- Bo Bichette — Probable (wrist)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — Probable (back tightness)
- George Springer — Out (hamstring)
- Kevin Gausman — Out (forearm)
- Jordan Romano — Out (elbow)
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge — Probable (ankle)
- Juan Soto — Probable (quad)
- Anthony Rizzo — Out (shoulder)
- Gerrit Cole — Out (elbow)
- Jonathan Loáisiga — Out (lat strain)
Impact:
- Toronto’s bullpen is thin without Romano, making late innings dangerous.
- Yankees missing Rizzo hurts left‑handed balance, but Judge + Soto remain elite.
- Both teams’ stars (Bichette, Guerrero, Judge, Soto) are expected to play, keeping lineups strong.
Team Records & Recent Form
Toronto Blue Jays (22–27)
Last 10: 4–6 Road Record: 10–15 Run Differential: –21 Team Identity:
- Streaky offense
- Rotation instability
- Bullpen vulnerability
Recent Trends:
- Averaging 4.2 runs per game over last 10
- Team ERA last 10 games: 5.01
- Blue Jays have lost three straight series
New York Yankees (30–20)
Last 10: 6–4 Home Record: 17–9 Run Differential: +38 Team Identity:
- Power‑driven offense
- Strong rotation depth
- Elite home‑field advantage
Recent Trends:
- Averaging 5.0 runs per game over last 10
- Team ERA last 10 games: 3.88
- Yankees have won four of last five
Key Player Matchups
1. Juan Soto (NYY) vs. Adam Fisher (TOR)
- Soto is hitting .345 over his last 12 games.
- Fisher’s fastball command is inconsistent, and Soto punishes mistakes.
- Wind blowing out to right is a massive advantage for Soto.
Edge: Soto, decisively.
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) vs. Carlos Rodón (NYY)
- Guerrero has a career .302 average vs. LHP.
- Rodón’s slider is elite when sharp, but he’s prone to early HRs.
- Guerrero must anchor Toronto’s offense.
Edge: Even, depends on Rodón’s early command.
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) vs. Blue Jays Bullpen
- Judge is heating up: 4 HR in last 8 games.
- Toronto’s bullpen ERA vs. RHB: 4.89.
- If Fisher exits early, Judge becomes a major threat.
Edge: Yankees, innings 6–9.
4. Bo Bichette (TOR) vs. Yankees Pitching
- Bichette thrives vs. fastball‑heavy pitchers.
- Rodón’s velocity plays into Bichette’s strengths if he’s healthy.
- Bichette must set the table for Guerrero.
Edge: Slight lean to Bichette, if wrist is stable.
Series History
- 2025 Season: Yankees won series 11–8
- Last 20 meetings: Yankees lead 13–7
- At Yankee Stadium: Yankees have won 9 of last 12
Trend: New York has dominated Toronto at home, especially in high‑scoring games.
Starting Pitching Breakdown
Adam Fisher — RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
2026 Season:
- Record: 2–3
- ERA: 4.72
- WHIP: 1.36
- K/BB: 39/15
- HR Allowed: 8
Pitch Mix:
- 4‑Seam Fastball: 94 mph
- Slider: 86 mph
- Changeup: 83 mph
- Curveball: 78 mph
Scouting Notes:
- Fly‑ball tendencies are dangerous at Yankee Stadium
- Struggles vs. left‑handed power
- Must avoid falling behind in counts
Carlos Rodón — LHP, New York Yankees
2026 Season:
- Record: 5–2
- ERA: 3.58
- WHIP: 1.22
- K/BB: 61/18
- HR Allowed: 6
Pitch Mix:
- 4‑Seam Fastball: 96 mph
- Slider: 87 mph
- Curveball: 80 mph
- Changeup: 84 mph
Scouting Notes:
- Dominant when slider is sharp
- Can be homer‑prone early
- Strong strikeout upside vs. Toronto’s swing‑heavy lineup
Betting Trends
Against the Spread (Run Line)
- Blue Jays: 21–28 RL
- Yankees: 29–21 RL
- Yankees are 16–10 RL at home
Totals (O/U)
- Blue Jays: 26–23 to the Over
- Yankees: 27–23 to the Over
- Yankee Stadium: Strong Over park
Situational Trends
- Yankees are 8–2 in last 10 home games
- Blue Jays are 3–7 in last 10 road games
- Rodón Overs have hit in 4 of last 6 starts
Game Odds
Toronto Blue Jays 8
New York Yankees – 140
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Wednesday, May 20, 2026
