PARIS – France’s gambling regulator says a new analytical model shows that roughly 60% of the country’s gross gaming revenue is generated by players considered at risk of problem gambling, prompting the agency to make the tool available to operators as a benchmark for their own harm‑prevention systems.
The Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) said the algorithm was developed after concerns that operators were under‑identifying problem gamblers. Licensed operators flagged 89,000 at‑risk players in 2025, up from 31,000 the year before, but the regulator said the increase still fell short of what it believes is the true scale of the issue.
Algorithm Built From Operator and Monopoly Data
To address the gap, the ANJ created its own model using data from online operators as well as state‑backed monopolies FDJ and PMU. The tool uses 23 behavioral indicators to classify players into four categories: recreational, moderate‑risk, excessive, and clearly excessive.
The regulator stressed that the algorithm is not intended to measure the exact number of problem gamblers, but rather to provide a clearer picture of risk levels across the market. Its performance was validated using the Canadian Problem Gambling Index, under the supervision of an expert committee.
The initial findings were stark. In the second half of 2025, the model identified 600,000 players who are highly likely to be problem gamblers, half of whom were categorized as “clearly excessive.” The ANJ said the growth of gambling participation explains part of the increase, but added that “this does not explain everything,” noting that the number of risky players appears to be rising faster than the overall player base.
The model also estimated that €1.2 billion, or 60% of total GGR, came from players in the problem‑gambling categories.
Tool Offered to Operators
The ANJ said the algorithm is now available for operators to integrate voluntarily as a way to test the effectiveness of their own detection systems. It can be used alongside existing tools, the regulator said.
The agency will use the model to identify clearly excessive players and to refine its oversight of potentially risky ones.
ANJ chair Isabelle Falque‑Pierrotin called the release of the tool a “decisive step” for gambling regulation in France.
“In addition to survey data, the algorithm helps to objectively assess the efforts required to identify problem gamblers, whom operators must take immediate action to support,” she said. She added that similar identification processes should be implemented at retail points of sale, a requirement the regulator has urged the two monopolies to adopt since 2024.
France recently joined other European jurisdictions in raising concerns about the rapid growth of prediction markets.
