- Competition: 2026 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup — Quarterfinal
- Fixture: Orlando City SC vs Atlanta United FC
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Inter&Co Stadium, Orlando, Florida (formerly Exploria Stadium)
Single‑elimination, rivalry, and a quick rematch: these sides just drew 1–1 in MLS at the same venue on May 16, and now everything rides on 90+ minutes and, if needed, extra time and penalties.
Venue and weather conditions
Inter&Co Stadium — Orlando, FL
- Surface: Natural grass
- Capacity: ~25,500
- Typical May evening conditions:
- Temperature around 78–82°F at kickoff
- Humidity often 70–80%
- Light winds, low chance of significant weather disruption
Warm, humid conditions favor high‑energy pressing sides with depth; both teams have been rotating for the Open Cup, but Orlando’s familiarity with the climate and pitch is a real edge.
Injury / availability report
From the latest match‑guide and squad notes:
Orlando City SC (home)
- Out:
- Joran Gerbet — cruciate ligament injury
- Otherwise: Core XI available; Martín Ojeda, Facundo Torres, and key defenders all expected to feature.
Atlanta United FC (away)
- Out:
- Miguel Almirón — knee injury (targeted early June return)
- Otherwise: Strong squad; key attackers like Jamal Thiare/Latte Lath and creative midfielders available.
Neither side is decimated, but Atlanta missing Almirón’s creativity and goal threat is a meaningful downgrade in a knockout tie.
Recent form
Orlando City SC
Recent results (all competitions):
- Orlando 1–1 Atlanta (H)
- Orlando 4–3 Philadelphia (H)
- CF Montréal 2–0 Orlando (A)
- Inter Miami 3–4 Orlando (A)
- New England 3–4 Orlando (A)
Profile:
- Scoring freely (3+ goals in three of last four wins)
- Conceding heavily; games are chaotic and open
- Ojeda in red‑hot form: 5 goals in his last 4 matches, 10 goal contributions across competitions.
Atlanta United FC
Recent results (all competitions):
- Atlanta 1–1 Orlando (A)
- Atlanta 1–2 LA Galaxy (H)
- Atlanta 3–1 CF Montréal (H)
- Charlotte 0–2 Atlanta (A)
- Toronto 1–2 Atlanta (A)
Profile:
- Strong recent road form (wins at Toronto and Charlotte, draw at Orlando)
- Attack improving: 8 goals in last 4 before the 1–1 draw
- Cup run: wins over Chattanooga FC (3–1) and Charlotte FC (2–0) show depth and tactical discipline.
Series history
All competitions head‑to‑head:
- Orlando City: 6 wins
- Atlanta United: 12 wins
- Draws: 8
At home (Orlando):
- Orlando 4 wins, 7 losses, 4 draws
The rivalry has tilted historically toward Atlanta, but Orlando has become more competitive in recent seasons, and the most recent meeting (May 16) finished 1–1 at this same stadium.
Tactical and key player matchups
Orlando City SC
Likely shape: 3‑4‑3 / 3‑4‑2‑1
Key players:
- Martín Ojeda (AM/W):
- Team‑high 10 goal contributions across competitions
- 5 goals in his last 4 matches
- Primary creative hub; dangerous between lines and on late box entries.
- Facundo Torres / attacking line:
- Secondary scoring and chance creation
- Thrive in transition and broken play
- Back three (Brekalo, Jansson, Marin):
- Must handle Atlanta’s wide overloads and diagonal runs
- Vulnerable when Orlando pushes wingbacks high
Tactical focus:
- Aggressive wingback play (Dorsey, Angulo) to pin Atlanta’s fullbacks
- Quick vertical attacks through Ojeda and Torres
- High‑risk, high‑reward approach that can leave space behind.
Atlanta United FC
Likely shape: 4‑3‑3
Key players:
- Latte Lath (CF):
- Central to buildup and pressing under Martino
- Drops in to link play, initiates press, and attacks space behind.
- Jay Fortune (MF):
- Scored the equalizer in the 1–1 draw on May 16
- Late‑arriving threat from midfield.
- Muyumba / central midfield:
- Must control Orlando’s transitions
- Key to breaking Orlando’s press and finding wide runners
Tactical focus:
- Structured 4‑3‑3 with emphasis on controlled possession and pressing triggers
- Use wide overloads to drag Orlando’s back three apart
- Target spaces behind advanced wingbacks, especially in transition.
Data‑driven edge and probabilities
Sports Mole’s model for this exact Open Cup tie:
- Atlanta United win: 41.98%
- Orlando City win: 35.08%
- Draw (after 90 minutes): 22.94%
Most likely scorelines:
- Atlanta 2–1 (8.6%)
- Atlanta 1–0 (6.97%)
- Atlanta 2–0 (5.81%)
- Orlando 2–1 (7.67%)
- Draw 1–1 (10.1%)
Model leans slightly toward Atlanta, but with a very live home win and a significant draw probability in regulation.
Wagering trends and angles
Orlando City
- Recent matches: 4–3, 4–3, 1–1, 4–3, 2–0, etc. — strong Over profile in league play.
- At home, they’ve been scoring but conceding regularly.
- Cup motivation is high; they’re defending a deep run and playing a rival.
Atlanta United
- Road form: wins at Toronto and Charlotte, draw at Orlando — reliable away side lately.
- Cup run: 3–1 vs Chattanooga, 2–0 vs Charlotte — solid defensively in knockout games.
- Tend to be more controlled and pragmatic away from home.
Matchup trends
- The May 16 MLS meeting ended 1–1, suggesting Atlanta can slow Orlando’s attack when fully focused.
- Historically, Atlanta has had the better of the rivalry, but Orlando’s recent attacking form and home advantage narrow the gap.
