First Pitch: 7:40 PM CT / 8:40 PM ET Venue: Target Field — Minneapolis, Minnesota Surface: Kentucky Bluegrass Dimensions: LF 339 ft, CF 403 ft, RF 328 ft Park Factor: Slightly pitcher‑friendly, especially in cooler weather
Venue & Weather Conditions
Target Field — Minneapolis, MN
Forecast:
- Temperature: 63–66°F
- Wind: 6–9 mph blowing in from right field
- Humidity: ~48%
- Precipitation: <10%
- Impact:
- Cooler air suppresses ball carry
- Wind in reduces left‑handed HR potential
- Run environment leans pitcher‑friendly
Expect a lower‑scoring environment, especially early.
Team Form & Context
Houston Astros (19–29)
- Have lost 6 of last 8, continuing a disappointing start.
- Offense averaging 4.1 runs/game in May.
- Rotation ERA in last 10 games: 4.92
- Bullpen has been inconsistent (4.47 ERA in May).
- Kona Imai has shown flashes but remains inconsistent in his first MLB season.
Minnesota Twins (21–26)
- Have won 4 of last 6, showing signs of stabilizing.
- Offense averaging 4.5 runs/game in May.
- Pitching staff improving (4.02 ERA in last 10).
- Keider Rojas has been a bright spot, showing strong command and swing‑and‑miss stuff.
Injury Report
Houston Astros
- Kyle Tucker — Day‑to‑Day (wrist)
- Yordan Álvarez — PROBABLE (hamstring tightness)
- Framber Valdez — OUT (forearm)
- Ryan Pressly — Day‑to‑Day (back)
Impact: Tucker’s status is the biggest swing factor. Without him, Houston loses its best all‑around hitter.
Minnesota Twins
- Carlos Correa — PROBABLE (heel)
- Royce Lewis — OUT (quad)
- Byron Buxton — Day‑to‑Day (knee)
- Jhoan Durán — Day‑to‑Day (shoulder fatigue)
Impact: Minnesota’s lineup is volatile depending on Buxton’s availability.
Starting Pitching Breakdown
Kona Imai — RHP, Houston Astros
2026 Season Stats:
- Record: 2–4
- ERA: 4.71
- WHIP: 1.36
- K/BB: 39/15
- HR Allowed: 7
- Opp BA: .258
Profile:
- 94–96 mph fastball
- Splitter + slider mix
- Fly‑ball tendencies (41%)
- Road ERA: 5.02
- Struggles vs. left‑handed hitters (.276 allowed)
Matchup vs. Twins:
- Minnesota’s lefties (Kepler, Larnach, Julien) match up well.
- Cooler weather helps suppress Imai’s HR vulnerability.
Keider Rojas — RHP, Minnesota Twins
2026 Season Stats:
- Record: 3–3
- ERA: 3.62
- WHIP: 1.21
- K/BB: 44/12
- HR Allowed: 4
- Opp BA: .232
Profile:
- 93–95 mph sinker
- Sharp slider + changeup
- Strong command
- Home ERA: 3.41
- Excellent vs. right‑handed hitters (.219 allowed)
Matchup vs. Astros:
- Houston’s lineup is right‑hand heavy (Altuve, Bregman, Peña).
- Rojas’ sinker/slider combo is a difficult matchup for Houston’s aggressive hitters.
Key Player Matchups
Astros Hitters vs. Rojas
- Yordan Álvarez: Best Houston matchup; elite vs. RHP
- Jose Altuve: Needs to spark the offense
- Alex Bregman: Good OBP but power down
- Jeremy Peña: Hot streak but struggles vs. sliders
Edge: Rojas
Twins Hitters vs. Imai
- Carlos Correa: Excellent vs. splitters; revenge narrative
- Max Kepler: Power threat vs. fly‑ball pitchers
- Edouard Julien: OBP machine; handles velocity well
- Trevor Larnach: Extra‑base hit potential in big outfield
Edge: Twins lineup
Recent Team Trends
Houston Astros
- 2–6 in last 8
- Under is 6–3 in last 9
- 3–7 in last 10 road games
- Imai starts: HOU is 2–5
Minnesota Twins
- 4–2 in last 6
- Under is 5–2 in last 7
- 6–4 in last 10 home games
- Rojas starts: MIN is 5–3
Head‑to‑Head Trends
- Twins have won 5 of last 8
- Under is 7–3 in last 10 meetings
- Games at Target Field average 7.2 runs over last 10 matchups
GAME ODDS
Houston Astros 9
Minnesota Twins – 114
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, May 17, 2026
