First Pitch: 7:05 PM ET Venue: Yankee Stadium — Bronx, New York Surface: Kentucky Bluegrass Dimensions: LF 318 ft, CF 408 ft, RF 314 ft Park Factor: Extremely hitter‑friendly for left‑handed pull hitters
Venue & Weather Conditions
Yankee Stadium — Bronx, NY
Forecast:
- Temperature: 68–71°F
- Wind: 10–14 mph blowing out to right field
- Humidity: ~62%
- Precipitation: <10%
- Impact:
- Major boost to left‑handed power
- Short porch in RF becomes even more dangerous
- Run environment strongly hitter‑friendly
This is a potentially high‑scoring weather setup, especially for left‑handed bats.
Team Form & Context
Toronto Blue Jays (21–25)
- Have lost 5 of last 7, struggling to generate consistent offense.
- Averaging 4.2 runs/game in May.
- Rotation ERA in last 10 games: 4.89
- Bullpen has been inconsistent (4.41 ERA in May).
- Corbin has been serviceable but remains vulnerable to HRs.
New York Yankees (28–19)
- Have won 6 of last 8, trending upward.
- Offense averaging 5.0 runs/game in May.
- Pitching staff strong at home (3.52 ERA at Yankee Stadium).
- Weathers has been one of the Yankees’ most improved arms.
Injury Report
Toronto Blue Jays
- Bo Bichette — OUT (knee)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — Day‑to‑Day (back tightness)
- Kevin Gausman — OUT (forearm)
- Jordan Romano — Day‑to‑Day (elbow)
Impact: Without Bichette and possibly Guerrero, Toronto’s lineup loses its two most dangerous right‑handed bats.
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge — PROBABLE (hand contusion)
- Giancarlo Stanton — Day‑to‑Day (hamstring)
- Carlos Rodón — OUT (shoulder)
- Jonathan Loáisiga — OUT (elbow)
Impact: Judge’s availability is the biggest swing factor. Even at 80%, he changes the entire lineup dynamic.
Starting Pitching Breakdown
Patrick Corbin — LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
2026 Season Stats:
- Record: 2–5
- ERA: 4.92
- WHIP: 1.43
- K/BB: 31/14
- HR Allowed: 9
- Opp BA: .278
Profile:
- 90–92 mph fastball
- Slider remains his best pitch
- Extreme contact profile
- Road ERA: 5.21
- Struggles vs. right‑handed hitters (.301 allowed)
Matchup vs. Yankees:
- New York’s right‑handed core (Judge, Torres, Volpe) is a nightmare matchup.
- Short porch in RF punishes Corbin’s fly‑ball tendencies.
- Weather conditions amplify his HR vulnerability.
Ryan Weathers — LHP, New York Yankees
2026 Season Stats:
- Record: 4–2
- ERA: 3.66
- WHIP: 1.18
- K/BB: 45/13
- HR Allowed: 5
- Opp BA: .232
Profile:
- 94–96 mph fastball
- Improved slider + changeup
- Strong command
- Home ERA: 3.41
- Excellent vs. left‑handed hitters (.204 allowed)
Matchup vs. Blue Jays:
- Toronto’s lineup is right‑hand heavy, but weakened without Bichette.
- Weathers’ fastball/slider combo plays well vs. Toronto’s aggressive hitters.
Key Player Matchups
Blue Jays Hitters vs. Weathers
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: If active, best Toronto matchup
- Daulton Varsho: Power threat but struggles vs. LHP
- George Springer: Needs to spark the offense; good vs. fastballs
- Justin Turner: Veteran presence; handles lefties well
Edge: Weathers
Yankees Hitters vs. Corbin
- Aaron Judge: Elite vs. LHP; short porch tailor‑made for him
- Gleyber Torres: Excellent vs. sliders
- Anthony Volpe: Hot streak; thrives vs. soft contact pitchers
- Alex Verdugo: Lefty bat benefits from wind out to RF
Edge: Yankees (significant)
Recent Team Trends
Toronto Blue Jays
- 2–5 in last 7
- Under is 6–3 in last 9
- 3–7 in last 10 road games
- Corbin starts: TOR is 2–6
New York Yankees
- 6–2 in last 8
- Over is 5–2 in last 7
- 8–3 in last 11 home games
- Weathers starts: NYY is 6–3
Head‑to‑Head Trends
- Yankees have won 7 of last 10
- Over is 6–4 in last 10
- Games at Yankee Stadium average 9.4 runs over last 10 meetings
GAME ODDS
Toronto Blue Jays 9
New York Yankees -205
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, May 17, 2026
