Venue: Xcel Energy Center — Saint Paul, Minnesota
Puck Drop: 8:00 p.m. CT / 9:00 p.m. ET
Series: Colorado leads 2–1 (Best‑of‑7)
Venue & Setting
Xcel Energy Center has been one of the NHL’s most reliable postseason atmospheres for over a decade. Minnesota is 28–15 in home playoff games since 2015, and the building’s energy typically elevates their forecheck-heavy style.
Colorado, however, has been one of the league’s best road playoff teams the past three seasons, winning six of their last nine away postseason games. Game 4 is a pressure point:
- A Colorado win puts Minnesota on the brink.
- A Minnesota win resets the series to a best‑of‑3.
Injury Report
Minnesota Wild
- Kirill Kaprizov — Probable (lower‑body) Looked fully mobile in Game 3; expected to play heavy minutes.
- Jonas Brodin — Questionable (upper‑body) Missed Game 3; his absence significantly impacts Minnesota’s defensive structure.
- Marcus Foligno — Probable (illness) Expected to return to his checking-line role.
- Filip Gustavsson — Active No injury concerns; expected to start.
Colorado Avalanche
- Cale Makar — Probable (ankle soreness) Managed minutes in Game 3 but still logged 25+.
- Valeri Nichushkin — Out (personal leave) Colorado continues to adjust its top‑six rotations.
- Samuel Girard — Out (upper‑body) Defensive depth remains thin.
- Alexandar Georgiev — Active Expected to start again.
Team Records & Recent Form
Minnesota Wild
- Series: 1–2
- Last 5 games: L–L–W–L–L
- Trend: Minnesota’s offense has been inconsistent, scoring 2 or fewer goals in four of their last five. Their defensive structure improved in Game 3, but lapses in transition continue to hurt them.
Colorado Avalanche
- Series: 2–1
- Last 5 games: W–W–L–W–W
- Trend: Colorado’s top line has been dominant, and their special teams have been the difference. Their only loss came when Minnesota successfully slowed the pace and clogged the neutral zone.
Key Player Matchups
1. Kirill Kaprizov vs. Cale Makar
- Kaprizov has generated 14 shots over the last two games and is heating up.
- Makar’s mobility remains elite, but he’s clearly managing discomfort. Edge: Kaprizov if Brodin returns; otherwise even.
2. Joel Eriksson Ek vs. Nathan MacKinnon
- Eriksson Ek’s shutdown role is critical; he won 58% of faceoffs in Game 3.
- MacKinnon is averaging 1.33 points per game this postseason and remains the most dangerous skater in the series. Edge: MacKinnon.
3. Filip Gustavsson vs. Alexandar Georgiev
- Gustavsson has a .912 save percentage at home this postseason.
- Georgiev has been streaky but excellent when Colorado controls possession. Edge: Gustavsson at home; Georgiev if the game becomes high‑event.
4. Minnesota Forecheck vs. Colorado Transition Game
This is the tactical hinge of the series:
- Minnesota wins when they slow Colorado’s exits.
- Colorado wins when their speed creates odd‑man rushes. Edge: Colorado unless Brodin returns.
Series History (2025–26 Season + Playoffs)
- Regular Season: Colorado won 3–1
- Playoffs: Avalanche lead 2–1
- At Xcel Energy Center: Minnesota is 1–1 vs. Colorado this season Colorado has won 7 of the last 10 meetings overall, including three straight playoff games in Saint Paul dating back to 2024.
Betting Trends
Against the Spread (Puck Line)
- Minnesota: 4–1 ATS in last 5 home playoff games
- Colorado: 2–6 ATS in last 8 road playoff games
Totals
- Under is 5–2 in the last seven meetings
- Minnesota home playoff games have hit Under in 6 of their last 8
- Colorado’s offense has cooled slightly on the road
Moneyline Trends
- Minnesota is 6–2 in their last eight home playoff games
- Colorado is 4–1 in their last five overall
- Home teams in Game 4 when trailing 2–1 win 61% historically
Game Odds
Minnesota Wild 6.5
Colorado Avalanche – 205
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Tuesday, May 12, 2026
