First Pitch: 6:35 p.m. ET / 3:35 p.m. PT
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards — Baltimore, Maryland
Surface: Kentucky bluegrass
Capacity: 45,971
Weather Forecast (Baltimore, MD)
Camden Yards is one of MLB’s most weather‑sensitive parks; conditions will influence run environment.
- Temperature: 67–70°F at first pitch
- Wind: 9–12 mph blowing out to left field
- Humidity: ~63%
- Rain: 0% — clear, warm spring evening
- Weather Impact:
- Boost for right-handed pull hitters
- Ball carries extremely well in warm, humid conditions
- Camden Yards becomes hitter-friendly tonight
Injury Report
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge — Healthy
- Juan Soto — Healthy
- Anthony Rizzo — Day-to-day (back tightness)
- Gerrit Cole — OUT (elbow recovery)
- Jonathan Loáisiga — OUT (UCL injury)
- Clarke Schmidt — Healthy (expected to start)
Baltimore Orioles
- Adley Rutschman — Healthy
- Gunnar Henderson — Probable (quad tightness)
- Cedric Mullins — OUT (wrist fracture)
- John Means — OUT (elbow surgery)
- Grayson Rodriguez — Healthy (expected to start)
Team Records & Recent Form
New York Yankees (26–16)
- Last 10: 5–5
- Road Record: 12–9
- Run Differential: +41
- Recent Form:
- Offense averaging 4.9 runs over last 10
- Bullpen remains top‑tier despite injuries
- Rotation stabilizing behind Stroman and Schmidt
Baltimore Orioles (19–23)
- Last 10: 4–6
- Home Record: 10–11
- Run Differential: -12
- Recent Form:
- Offense inconsistent without Mullins
- Pitching staff allowing 4.8 runs per game over last 10
- Bullpen has been shaky in middle innings
Probable Starting Pitchers
New York — RHP Clarke Schmidt (3–2, 3.66 ERA)
- WHIP: 1.22
- K/BB: 44/11
- Strengths:
- Cutter/slider combo effective vs LHB
- Keeps ball in park when command is sharp
- Weaknesses:
- Occasional trouble finishing innings
- Vulnerable to RH power when behind in counts
- Matchup Outlook:
- Orioles’ RH bats (Mountcastle, Westburg) are key threats
- Weather boosts HR risk
Baltimore — RHP Grayson Rodriguez (4–3, 3.91 ERA)
- WHIP: 1.24
- K/BB: 52/15
- Strengths:
- Power fastball, elite strikeout ability
- Excellent at home historically
- Weaknesses:
- Can be homer-prone vs elite RH hitters
- Matchup Outlook:
- Yankees’ RH power (Judge, Stanton) is a tough matchup
- Camden Yards’ left-field wall helps him slightly
Key Player Matchups
Aaron Judge (NYY) vs. Grayson Rodriguez
- Judge hitting .312 vs RHP
- Rodriguez allows 1.1 HR/9 to RH hitters
- Advantage: Judge
Adley Rutschman (BAL) vs. Clarke Schmidt
- Rutschman excels vs cutters
- Schmidt’s cutter must stay down
- Advantage: Rutschman
Juan Soto (NYY) vs. Orioles Bullpen
- Soto hitting .333 in late innings
- Orioles middle relief bottom‑third in WHIP
- Advantage: Soto
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) vs. Schmidt
- Mountcastle’s RH power plays well in tonight’s weather
- Schmidt’s slider can neutralize him if sharp
- Advantage: Even
Series History
- 2025 Season: Yankees won 8 of 13
- Last 10 Meetings: Yankees lead 6–4
- At Camden Yards: Yankees 11–7 since 2021
- Trend: High-scoring games common in Baltimore
Betting Trends
New York
- 6–2 in last 8 road games
- Over is 7–3 in last 10 Yankees games
- Yankees 8–3 in last 11 vs AL East
Baltimore
- 2–5 in last 7 home games
- Over is 6–2 in last 8 Orioles home games
- Orioles 1–6 in last 7 vs teams above .500
Head-to-Head
- Over is 5–1 in last 6 meetings
- Yankees have won 7 of last 10 overall
GAME ODDS
New York Yankees – 168
Baltimore Orioles 8.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, May 11, 2026
