Venue: loanDepot Park — Miami, Florida
First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET / 4:10 PM PT
Surface: Artificial Turf
Park Factor: One of MLB’s most pitcher‑friendly parks, suppresses HRs, boosts triples and gap power.
WEATHER OUTLOOK — MIAMI, FL
Note: loanDepot Park features a retractable roof. Forecast suggests roof likely closed due to humidity and scattered showers.
Outdoor Temperature: 82–85°F
Humidity: 70–75%
Rain: 40% chance
Wind: 10–14 mph (irrelevant if roof closed)
Impact:
With roof closed: neutral‑to‑slightly pitcher‑friendly environment.
Offense relies on line drives and speed, not HRs.
INJURY REPORT
Washington Nationals
SP Josiah Gray — OUT (forearm strain)
RP Hunter Harvey — Day‑to‑Day (shoulder tightness)
OF Lane Thomas — Probable (hamstring tightness)
1B Joey Meneses — Healthy
Miami Marlins
SP Eury Pérez — OUT (Tommy John recovery)
RP A.J. Puk — OUT (back strain)
2B Luis Arraez — Probable (hand contusion)
OF Jazz Chisholm Jr. — Healthy
Impact:
Nationals bullpen depth questionable if Harvey unavailable.
Marlins missing Pérez and Puk hurts rotation and late‑inning reliability.
TEAM RECORDS & RECENT FORM
Washington Nationals (18–20)
Last 10: 5–5
Road Record: 8–11
Run Differential: -12
Trend: Pitching stabilizing, offense inconsistent but improving
Miami Marlins (17–21)
Last 10: 4–6
Home Record: 9–10
Run Differential: -19
Trend: Offense streaky, bullpen unreliable, rotation competitive
RECENT TEAM FORM SNAPSHOT
Nationals
CJ Abrams emerging as a star
Meneses and Thomas providing steady production
Rotation giving competitive outings
Bullpen inconsistent but improving
Marlins
Jazz Chisholm heating up
Arraez remains elite contact hitter
Bullpen ERA bottom‑third
Offense feast‑or‑famine
SERIES HISTORY
2025 Season Series: Nationals won 7–6
Last 20 Meetings: Nationals lead 11–9
At loanDepot Park: Nationals have won 4 of last 6
Trend: Washington has quietly played Miami well over the last two seasons.
PROJECTED STARTING PITCHING MATCHUP
WASHINGTON — MacKenzie Gore (LHP)
2026 ERA: 3.72
WHIP: 1.28
Last 3 Starts: 2–1, 3.15 ERA
Strengths: High‑velo fastball, strong K‑rate, improved command
Weaknesses: Occasional HR issues, struggles vs. right‑handed power
Matchup Note: Miami’s lineup is right‑handed heavy, but loanDepot Park suppresses HRs.
MIAMI — Trevor Rogers (LHP)
2026 ERA: 4.44
WHIP: 1.35
Last 3 Starts: 1–2, 5.02 ERA
Strengths: Strong changeup, good vs. lefties
Weaknesses: Hard contact allowed, inconsistent command
Matchup Note: Nationals’ righties (Meneses, Ruiz, Thomas) are key threats.
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
CJ Abrams (WSH) vs. Trevor Rogers
Abrams hitting .310 vs. LHP
Rogers struggles vs. speed/contact hitters
Advantage: Abrams
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA) vs. MacKenzie Gore
Jazz hits lefties well
Gore’s fastball can neutralize him if elevated
Advantage: Even
Joey Meneses (WSH) vs. Marlins Bullpen
Meneses excels vs. middle relievers
Miami bullpen vulnerable
Advantage: Meneses
BETTING TRENDS
Moneyline Trends
Nationals are 4–2 in last 6 vs. Miami
Marlins are 3–7 in last 10 overall
Total Runs Trends
loanDepot Park is a Top‑5 Under park
Both teams have inconsistent offenses
Both starting pitchers capable of quality outings
Under 8.0 receiving early sharp interest.
Game Odds
Washington Nationals 8.5
Miami Marlins – 126
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Thursday, May 7, 2026
