Venue: loanDepot Park — Miami, Florida
First Pitch: 1:40 PM ET / 10:40 AM PT
Surface: Artificial turf
Broadcast: Bally Sports Florida, NBC Sports Philadelphia, MLB.TV
WEATHER REPORT — MIAMI
loanDepot Park features a retractable roof.
Roof Status: Expected closed due to humidity
Temperature (inside): 72–74°F
Humidity: Controlled
Wind: Not applicable
Ballpark Impact:
Closed‑roof games favor pitching and contact hitters
HR rates drop slightly
Turf surface increases ground‑ball speed, boosting infield hits
INJURY REPORT
Philadelphia Phillies
Bryce Harper (1B/RF) — Probable, minor elbow soreness
Trea Turner (SS) — Out, hamstring strain
Ranger Suárez (SP) — Out, shoulder fatigue
Seranthony Domínguez (RP) — Questionable, forearm tightness
Miami Marlins
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (CF) — Probable, ankle soreness
Jake Burger (3B) — Out, oblique strain
Jesús Luzardo (SP) — Out, elbow inflammation
A.J. Puk (RP) — Out, back strain
TEAM RECORDS & PERFORMANCE
Philadelphia Phillies (13–20)
Run Differential: -26
Road Record: 5–11
Last 10 Games: 3–7
Offense: 4.01 runs/game
Pitching: 4.78 ERA
Bullpen: 4.62 ERA (bottom‑third MLB)
Miami Marlins (16–17)
Run Differential: -4
Home Record: 9–7
Last 10 Games: 6–4
Offense: 4.28 runs/game
Pitching: 4.12 ERA
Bullpen: 3.89 ERA (middle‑tier MLB)
RECENT TEAM FORM
Philadelphia Phillies
Offense inconsistent: 3.6 runs/game over last 8
Missing Turner’s speed and top‑of‑order presence
Rotation struggling to reach 6 innings
Harper and Bohm carrying most of the load
Miami Marlins
Offense improving: 4.7 runs/game over last 7
Pitching stabilizing despite Luzardo’s absence
Bullpen performing well in leverage spots
Chisholm and Bell driving middle‑order production
PROBABLE STARTING PITCHERS
Philadelphia — Aaron Nola (RHP)
2026 Season: 2–4, 4.33 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Strengths: Curveball command, deep pitch mix
Weaknesses: HR susceptibility in hitter’s counts
Vs. Marlins: 3.41 career ERA
Miami — Edward Cabrera (RHP)
2026 Season: 2–2, 3.89 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Strengths: Electric fastball/changeup combo, high strikeout upside
Weaknesses: Walk rate, pitch efficiency
Vs. Phillies: 4.02 career ERA
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
1. Bryce Harper (PHI) vs. Edward Cabrera (MIA)
Harper handles high‑velocity fastballs well
Cabrera’s command volatility could lead to damage Edge: Phillies
2. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA) vs. Aaron Nola (PHI)
Chisholm excels vs. curveballs when he stays disciplined
Nola must keep the ball down to avoid extra‑base hits Edge: Even
3. Alec Bohm (PHI) vs. loanDepot Park Dimensions
Bohm’s line‑drive approach plays well in Miami
Doubles potential increases with turf surface Edge: Phillies
4. Josh Bell (MIA) vs. Phillies Bullpen
Bell’s switch‑hitting power is a problem for a struggling bullpen Edge: Marlins
SERIES HISTORY
2025–26 Season Series: Marlins lead 2–1 entering this game
Last 10 Meetings: Marlins lead 6–4
At loanDepot Park: Marlins have won 7 of last 10
Miami’s pitching has historically matched up well vs. Philadelphia’s power bats.
BETTING TRENDS
Philadelphia Phillies
2–7 in last 9 road games
Under is 6–3 in last 9
1–6 in last 7 vs. NL East
Miami Marlins
7–3 in last 10 home games
Under is 5–2 in last 7 at loanDepot Park
6–2 in last 8 vs. teams below .500
Game Odds
Philadelphia Phillies – 143
Miami Marlins 8
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, May 2, 2026
