Progressive Field — Cleveland, Ohio
First Pitch: 6:10 PM ET / 3:10 PM PT
Weather Outlook
Temperature: ~54–57°F at first pitch
Wind: 10–14 mph blowing out to right-center, mild boost for LHB pull hitters
Conditions: Partly cloudy, low chance of precipitation
Park Factor: Progressive Field historically plays neutral-to-slightly hitter-friendly in cool weather, but wind direction today adds modest HR upside.
Team Records & Form
Tampa Bay Rays (18–11)
Last 10: 7–3
Trend: Rays’ rotation stabilizing; bullpen continues to be elite (top‑5 ERA, WHIP).
Offense: Middle-of-the-pack power but top‑10 OBP; thriving in high‑leverage spots.
Road Record: 8–6
Cleveland Guardians (15–16)
Last 10: 4–6
Trend: Inconsistent offense; pitching staff showing fatigue after heavy early-season workloads.
Offense: Contact-heavy but lacking slug; reliant on timely hitting.
Home Record: 7–8
Projected Starting Pitchers
Tampa Bay — RHP Shane Baz
2026 Stats: Approx. early-season line: 3.40–3.70 ERA range, strong K/BB profile
Strengths: High-velocity four-seam, wipeout slider, elite strikeout upside
Weakness: Occasional command lapses; vulnerable to LHB if behind in counts
Matchup Fit: Guardians’ low-power, contact-first lineup plays into Baz’s strengths
Cleveland — RHP Tanner Bibee
2026 Stats: Mid‑3s ERA, excellent home splits
Strengths: Fastball command, deceptive changeup, keeps ball in park
Weakness: Struggles when forced into deep counts; Rays’ patient lineup can exploit
Matchup Fit: Rays’ lefties (Lowe, Siri, Aranda) match well vs. his pitch mix
Injury Report
Rays
Wander Franco: Out (administrative leave)
Josh Lowe: Day-to-day (hamstring tightness) — expected to be available
Jeffrey Springs: Still ramping up from prior injury recovery
Bullpen: Fully available after light usage on 4/28
Guardians
Triston McKenzie: IL (shoulder)
Steven Kwan: Day-to-day (wrist) — likely to play but may be limited
James Karinchak: IL (back)
Bullpen: Heavy usage last two games; key arms may be restricted
Key Player Matchups
Rays Hitters vs. Bibee
Randy Arozarena: Historically strong vs. high‑spin fastballs; HR potential
Isaac Paredes: Excellent vs. RHP breaking balls; strong RBI profile
Brandon Lowe: Power threat with wind blowing out; high‑leverage bat
Guardians Hitters vs. Baz
José Ramírez: Switch-hitter with elite contact; biggest threat to Baz
Josh Naylor: Power vs. RHP; wind direction helps
Andrés Giménez: Contact/speed profile but limited slug vs. Baz’s velocity
Series History
2025 Season: Rays won season series 4–2
At Progressive Field: Rays have won 6 of last 10
Trend: Tampa Bay has consistently outperformed Cleveland in pitching duels
Betting Trends
Tampa Bay
7–3 ATS last 10
Overs: 4 of last 6
Strong as road favorites (approx. 60% win rate in last two seasons)
Cleveland
3–7 ATS last 10
Unders: 6 of last 8 at home
Struggles vs. teams above .500 (sub‑.450 win rate)
Head-to-Head Trends
Rays 6–4 last 10 meetings
Unders hit in 7 of last 10
Rays’ pitching has held Guardians to 3 runs or fewer in 6 of last 8
Game Odds
Tampa Bay Rays 6.5
Cleveland Guardians – 118
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Tuesday, April 28, 2026
