NHL Game Preview: Toronto Maple Leafs (32-35-14) vs. Ottawa Senators (43-27-11)

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Faceoff is scheduled for 7:00 PM EDT
Venue:
Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON
TV/Streaming: Sportsnet (national), TSN5 (Ottawa regional), MSG-B (select markets), Hulu/ESPN+ (national streaming)

This Battle of Ontario clash is a late-regular-season tilt with major playoff implications for Ottawa and little left for Toronto. The Senators sit 4th in the Atlantic Division and are fighting for the final Eastern Conference wild-card spot, while the Maple Leafs are 7th in the division and mathematically eliminated from postseason contention. Both teams have already played 81 games; this is one of the final regular-season contests before the 2025-26 campaign concludes.

Injury Report

Toronto Maple Leafs (significant forward and blue-line attrition):

Auston Matthews (C): Day-to-Day (upper body) — questionable; missed portions of recent games.

Mitch Marner (RW): OUT (lower body) — week-to-week, unlikely tonight.

John Tavares (C): OUT for season (hip).

Morgan Rielly (D): OUT (personal).

Jake McCabe (D): Day-to-Day (illness).

Additional depth: Pontus Holmberg (C) and Max Domi (C) are also questionable with minor ailments.

Toronto is skating with heavy call-up reliance and a patchwork defense, limiting their offensive ceiling.

Ottawa Senators (goaltending and depth concerns):

Linus Ullmark (G): Day-to-Day (lower body) — game-time decision; backup Anton Forsberg expected if Ullmark sits.

Brady Tkachuk (LW): OUT (upper body) — missed last two games but could return.

Thomas Chabot (D): OUT (lower body).

Shane Pinto (C): Day-to-Day (undisclosed).

Additional: Jake Sanderson (D) is questionable after taking a hit in the last contest.

Ottawa will lean on its remaining top-line talent and depth forwards if key pieces are unavailable.

Recent Team Forms

Toronto Maple Leafs: 3-6-1 in their last 10 games. They enter on a three-game losing streak, including a 2-4 home loss to Montreal (Apr 13), a 1-3 road defeat at Boston (Apr 11), and a 4-5 OT loss vs. Buffalo (Apr 9). Offense has dried up (averaging 2.4 goals per game in the stretch), and road struggles (14-19-7 away) continue to define their late-season slide.

Ottawa Senators: 7-2-1 in their last 10 games. Fresh off wins over Montreal (5-2 on Apr 13), Detroit (4-3 on Apr 11), and a shootout victory vs. Pittsburgh (Apr 9), Ottawa is averaging 3.8 goals scored and 2.6 allowed. They are 23-12-5 at home and have been excellent in tight, one-goal games.

Series History

The 2025-26 season series is tied 2-2 entering tonight. Ottawa won the most recent meeting 4-2 (Mar 28 at Canadian Tire Centre). All-time Battle of Ontario, Ottawa holds a slight edge in recent seasons (approximately 38-35-8-12). The Senators are 5-2 SU in their last 7 home games against Toronto and have dominated the last two home head-to-heads. Toronto is 3-7 SU in its last 10 visits to Ottawa.

Key Player Matchups to Watch

Maple Leafs’ Top Line (William Nylander – Max Pacioretty or call-up – others) vs. Senators’ Top Defense (Jake Sanderson / Thomas Chabot pairing if healthy): Nylander has been Toronto’s most consistent producer (~38 goals, 45 assists); Ottawa’s speed on the back end must contain him without full health.

Senators’ Top Line (Tim Stützle – Brady Tkachuk if available – Claude Giroux) vs. Maple Leafs’ Depleted Defense: Stützle leads Ottawa with ~40 goals and 55 assists; Toronto’s makeshift blueline (missing Rielly) will be heavily tested by Ottawa’s transition game and forecheck.

Goaltending: Toronto’s Joseph Woll (or backup) faces a Senators attack that has been clicking lately. Ottawa counters with Ullmark/Forsberg; the Senators’ home goaltending has posted a sub-2.50 GAA in recent outings.

Betting Trends

Ottawa is a solid home favorite (~ -145 to -165 across books); Toronto sits as +130 to +145 underdogs.

Total is set around 6 goals (OVER -110 / UNDER -110 in early lines).

Senators are 8-2 SU in their last 10 overall and 6-1 ATS as home favorites of -140 or better.

OVER has hit in 6 of Toronto’s last 8 Wednesday games and 5 of Ottawa’s last 7 home contests.

Ottawa is 7-3 in the last 10 Battle of Ontario meetings and 4-1 SU in its last 5 vs. Toronto when the total is 6 or higher.

Maple Leafs are 2-8 SU as road underdogs of +120 or greater this season.

Game Odds

Toronto Maple Leafs                      6.5

Ottawa Senators                              – 180

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Tuesday, April 14, 2026