Venue: Santa Anita Park — Arcadia, California
Scheduled Post Time: 7:46 PM ET / 4:46 PM PT
Purse: $500,000 (Grade I)
Distance: 1 1/8 miles (Dirt)
Derby Points: 100–50–25–15–10 to the top five finishers
Expected Weather Conditions
Forecast for Arcadia on April 4, 2026:
Mostly sunny
High: 81°F (27°C)
Very low humidity (19%)
Track expected to be FAST
These conditions strongly favor tactical speed and horses with high cruising ability.
Field Overview (7 Horses)
Horse‑by‑Horse Analysis
PP #1 — Cherokee Nation (5‑2)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Last Race: Won 1‑mile MSW at Santa Anita by 10 lengths, earning a 103 Brisnet Speed Rating — the highest in the field.
Analysis:
Exploded in his maiden win and owns elite speed figures. However, CBS Sports and SportsLine analysts warn he has been inconsistent and faces tougher company here.
Contender, but not without risk.
PP #2 — Potente (2‑1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez
Last Race: Won San Felipe (G2) with a 97 rating, defeating Robusta.
Analysis:
A $2.4 million purchase, undefeated in two starts, and improving rapidly. Hernandez chooses him over Cherokee Nation, signaling stable confidence.
The horse to beat.
PP #3 — Vitruvian Man (15‑1)
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Antonio Fresu
Last Race: 3rd in Turfway AOC (87 rating).
Analysis:
Solid but lacks the top‑end speed of the favorites. Needs a major leap forward.
Longshot.
PP #4 — Robusta (8‑1)
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo
Last Race: 2nd in San Felipe (G2) with a 111 rating, nearly upsetting Potente.
Analysis:
Ran huge at 67‑1 in the San Felipe and nearly stole it. Jaramillo is riding extremely well.
Live upset threat.
PP #5 — So Happy (7‑2)
Trainer: Mark Glatt
Jockey: Mike E. Smith
Last Race: 3rd in San Felipe (G2) with a 108 rating.
Analysis:
A sentimental favorite with a strong closing kick. Needs pace up front to set up his run.
Major contender.
PP #6 — Start the Ride (30‑1)
Trainer: Dan Blacker
Jockey: Armando Ayuso
Last Race: 6th in San Felipe (G2) (96 rating).
Analysis:
Outclassed on paper.
Very unlikely.
PP #7 — Intrepido (7‑2)
Trainer: Jeff Mullins
Jockey: Hector Berrios
Last Race: 2nd in Robert B. Lewis (G3) with a 111 rating.
Analysis:
Consistent, gritty, and improving. A legitimate threat to the Baffert pair.
Top‑three candidate.
Track Conditions
With sunny, dry, 81°F weather expected, Santa Anita’s dirt will almost certainly be FAST, favoring tactical speed and forward‑placed runners.
Exacta Ideas
2 over 4, 7, 5
4 over 2, 7
Trifecta Structures
2 / 4, 7 / 1, 4, 5, 7
4 / 2 / 1, 5, 7
