Venue Location: Oaklawn Park, located at 2705 Central Avenue in Hot Springs, Arkansas. This legendary dirt track is one of the premier stops on the Kentucky Derby trail, known for its speed-favoring surface and passionate crowds on Arkansas Derby Day.
Scheduled Post Time: Saturday, March 28, 2026 – Race 13, the Grade I Arkansas Derby (for 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles on the main dirt track, $1,500,000 purse). Post time is 6:48 PM Central Time. Wagering includes Daily Double, Exacta, 50-cent Trifecta, 10-cent Superfecta, $1 Pick 3 (Races 13-14-15), and other exotics. This is the final major Kentucky Derby points prep (100-50-25-15-10 scale to the top five finishers).
Expected Weather Conditions: Daytime highs in the mid-60s°F (around 64-68°F), lows in the low-40s°F, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, and minimal chance of precipitation. Light winds expected. These dry conditions should result in a fast dirt track with no significant weather biases; Oaklawn’s main track typically plays fair and speed-friendly under similar setups.
Track Conditions: Expected fast dirt. Recent cards at Oaklawn have produced consistent, quick times on the main track with no rain in the immediate forecast.
Field Overview: This Grade I stakes features a compact but high-quality field of 3-year-olds, many with prior stakes experience on the Derby trail. The 1 1/8-mile dirt trip favors horses with tactical speed, stamina, and proven Oaklawn form. Morning line odds (ML) reflect a strong favorite in Renegade, but several live contenders at single-digit prices make it competitive.
Here is the full post-position analysis, including horse details, recent finishes (key recent races with available speed figures or notes), trainer/jockey notes, and race-specific commentary:
PP 1 – Redland Rebels (3g, Uncle Chuck – Kombat Cat)
Trainer: Patrick L. Biancone (veteran with success on the Derby trail; sharp shipper).
Jockey: Keith J. Asmussen (rising star with excellent local knowledge).
ML: 15/1
Recent Finishes: Recent loss to The Puma in the Tampa Bay Derby (flashed early speed but faded); also cross-entered in the Florida Derby.
Analysis: Flashy gelding who can press or control the pace from the rail. Biancone has him tuned for a forward trip, but the class rise and potential pace pressure make him more of a live longshot for exotics than a win threat. Solid underneath value at 15/1.
PP 2 – Silent Tactic (3c, Tacitus – Magical Sign)
Trainer: Mark E. Casse (Hall of Famer; master with consistent routers and Oaklawn specialists).
Jockey: Cristian A. Torres (young talent with growing success at Oaklawn).
ML: 5/2
Recent Finishes: 2nd (91 Beyer) Rebel S. (G2) 3/1/26 (nose loss to Class President); 1st Southwest S. (G3); also ran in Smarty Jones S. (the only horse to compete in all four Oaklawn preps).
Analysis: Ultra-consistent colt with stamina and a powerful late kick. Casse has him peaking perfectly for this local track; post 2 is ideal for stalking. Major contender who could wire the Derby points if the pace melts. Logical favorite underneath.
PP 3 – Blackout Time (3c, Not This Time – Beauty Parlor)
Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek (proven Derby trainer; excellent with improving 3YOs).
Jockey: Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. (Oaklawn veteran with big-race timing).
ML: 6/1
Recent Finishes: 4th/5th Rebel S. (G2) 3/1/26; strong 2YO campaign including 93 Beyer in Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity.
Analysis: Talented but had a minor injury setback; McPeek has him coming into peak form. Versatile running style suits the mile-and-an-eighth. Post 3 helps early positioning. Live at 6/1 if he rebounds off the Rebel.
PP 4 – Bricklin (3c, Nyquist – Majestic Vixen)
Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset (high-percentage with improving colts).
Jockey: Jaime A. Torres (solid rider with good hands).
ML: 20/1
Recent Finishes: 3rd (112) Sunland Derby (LS) 2026; prior optional claiming win (86 Beyer).
Analysis: Improved 3YO who needed the Sunland run. Brisset has him moving forward, but this is a big class/distance jump. Post 4 is neutral; needs a career-best effort to contend at 20/1. Exotics filler.
PP 5 – Taptastic (3c, Tapit – Valadorna)
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (Hall of Famer; perennial Oaklawn powerhouse).
Jockey: Erik Asmussen (trainer’s son; rising star).
ML: 20/1
Recent Finishes: Maiden win (81 Beyer) over a mile earlier in 2026.
Analysis: Lightly raced with upside for Asmussen, but this is a massive step up in class and distance. Post 5 allows a mid-pack trip. More of a long-term prospect; needs the race at 20/1 but could surprise in a paceless scenario.
PP 6 – Renegade (3c, Into Mischief – Spice Is Nice)
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher (elite big-race trainer; multiple Derby preps winner).
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (perennial leading rider; the best closer in the game).
ML: 3/2
Recent Finishes: 1st Sam F. Davis S. (G3) 2026 (over The Puma); 2nd Remsen S. (G2) at 2 (handled 1 1/8 miles).
Analysis: The clear class horse and morning-line favorite. Pletcher has him in peak form with elite speed figures. Post 6 is perfect for stalking; Irad Ortiz adds firepower. The one to beat on talent and current form.
PP 7 – Napoleon Solo (3c, Liam’s Map – Atomic Blonde)
Trainer: Chad Summers (capable with high-class 2YOs turning 3).
Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche (veteran with stakes experience).
ML: 6/1
Recent Finishes: 1st Champagne S. (G1) at 2; limited 3YO starts but pedigree suits the distance.
Analysis: Late-developing G1 winner with tactical speed. Summers has him ready for a peak effort; post 7 is slightly wide but allows clean run. Dangerous at 6/1 with any pace setup.
PP 8 – Exosome (3c, Candy Ride (ARG) – Incredible Grace)
Trainer: Kelsey Danner (solid with routers).
Jockey: Adam Beschizza (reliable mid-pack rider).
ML: 20/1
Recent Finishes: Declining form since Lecomte S.; recent efforts lack the needed progression.
Analysis: Has shown flashes but recent regression is concerning. Danner gets him to the gate, but class and form questions loom large. Post 8 is wide; longshot at best for exotics.
PP 9 – Litmus Test (3c, Nyquist – Study Hard)
Trainer: Bob Baffert (Hall of Famer chasing a record 5th Arkansas Derby win).
Jockey: Francisco Arrieta (local specialist with big-race experience).
ML: 5/1
Recent Finishes: 3rd Rebel S. (G2) 3/1/26 (tired after rapid early fractions); prior strong 2YO form.
Analysis: Baffert barn is always dangerous here. Expect improvement off the Rebel with a more patient trip from post 9. Tactical speed and pedigree make him a major threat at fair odds. Top selection for value.
Overall Preview and Wagering Thoughts: Renegade (PP 6) is the horse to beat with elite connections and sharp recent form, but Silent Tactic (PP 2), Litmus Test (PP 9), and Napoleon Solo (PP 7) are live at better prices. Blackout Time and Redland Rebels add pace and exotics depth. The race should set up for stalkers on a fast track—favor horses with tactical versatility. Key plays: Win/Place on Renegade or Litmus Test; exactas boxing the top four; trifectas wheeling the favorites over the mid-pack closers.
