The Grade III Tampa Bay Derby (ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby) is scheduled at Tampa Bay Downs in Oldsmar, Florida. This scenic track, established in 1926, features a one-mile dirt oval that often favors tactical speed and inside posts in two-turn routes for sophomores. The first post time is 12:00 PM ET (noon), with Race 11 set for 5:35 PM ET.
Expected weather conditions in Oldsmar on race day include mostly sunny skies with highs around 82°F and lows near 68°F. Light southeast winds at 5-8 mph, humidity around 57%, and no significant precipitation anticipated. These conditions should produce a fast dirt track, benefiting horses with proven form on firm, dry surfaces and those who can handle tactical positioning.
This $400,000 Grade III stakes (including Florida-bred incentives) is a key Road to the Kentucky Derby prep for 3-year-olds, contested over 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. It awards 50-25-15-10-5 qualifying points to the top five finishers. Weights are 122 lbs. The field of 9 (after scratches) features a strong mix of stakes winners and promising maidens/allowance types, with trainers like Brad H. Cox (Further Ado as heavy favorite), Todd A. Pletcher, and Patrick L. Biancone adding depth.
| Post Position | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Morning Line Odds |
| 1 | Redland Rebels | Junior Alvarado | Patrick L. Biancone | 10/1 |
| 2 | Talkin | Joel Rosario | Danny Gargan | 15/1 |
| 3 | Roger That Dana | Renzo Rojas | Luis M. Ramirez | 15/1 |
| 4 | Hulkamania | Jareth Loveberry | D. Whitworth Beckman | 20/1 |
| 5 | Powershift | John R. Velazquez | Todd A. Pletcher | 7/2 |
| 6 | Further Ado | Irad Ortiz, Jr. | Brad H. Cox | 9/5 |
| 7 | Thunder Buck | (TBD/local) | Brad H. Cox | 20/1 |
| 8 | (Additional entry or AE) | – | – | – |
| 9 | (Additional entry or AE) | – | – | – |
(Note: Field subject to final scratches; some assignments projected from patterns.)
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
1. Redland Rebels (10/1 ML)
Patrick L. Biancone trains this 3-year-old Uncle Chuck gelding, ridden by Junior Alvarado at 122 lbs. Owned by Calypso Racing Stables 2022, LLC. Florida-bred turf-to-dirt shipper with pace influence. Recent finishes: 2nd in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes (LS) at Gulfstream on 1/13/26 (1 1/16 miles, firm turf, lost by neck after setting pace); 1st in a Gulfstream MSW on 8/xx/25 (1 mile, firm turf, won by 6 3/4 lengths); 4th debut on dirt at Gulfstream (6f, fast). Speedy on grass but dirt question; could set or press fractions. Biancone wins 18% with shippers. Alvarado tactical locally. Rail post ideal for early control; pace factor and exotic value.
2. Talkin (15/1 ML)
Danny Gargan conditions this 3-year-old Good Magic colt, with Joel Rosario aboard at 122 lbs. Owned by Reeves Thoroughbred Racing et al. Stalker with upside. Recent finishes: Competitive in allowance/optional claimers; likely includes a strong placing or win leading into prep. Handles dirt well. Gargan wins 16% with 3YOs. Rosario elite (25% wins). Post 2 suits ground-saving; live longshot if pace hot.
3. Roger That Dana (15/1 ML)
Luis M. Ramirez trains this 3-year-old colt, ridden by Renzo Rojas at 122 lbs. Owned by Smith Ranch Stables. Local or regional form. Recent finishes: Solid in lower-level stakes or allowances at regional tracks. Needs step up. Ramirez targets value spots (14% wins). Rojas capable. Post 3 offers options; minor award possible.
4. Hulkamania (20/1 ML)
D. Whitworth Beckman sends out this 3-year-old colt, with Jareth Loveberry up at 122 lbs. Owned by Hoolie Racing Stable et al. Improving type. Recent finishes: Allowance or stakes-placed efforts. Beckman wins 17% with routers. Loveberry reliable. Post 4 for tactical trip; exotic filler.
5. Powershift (7/2 ML)
Todd A. Pletcher trains this 3-year-old colt, ridden by John R. Velazquez at 122 lbs. Owned by prominent connections. Strong contender. Recent finishes: Likely includes a stakes placing or allowance win; Pletcher preps often sharp. Excels on fast dirt. Pletcher dominates Tampa (25%+ wins). Velazquez masterful. Post 5 suits stalking; major threat.
6. Further Ado (9/5 ML)
Brad H. Cox conditions this 3-year-old Gun Runner colt, with Irad Ortiz, Jr. aboard at 122 lbs. Owned by Stonestreet Stables, LLC. Morning-line favorite after strong 2YO campaign. Recent finishes: 1st in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill on 11/29/25 (1 1/16 miles, fast dirt); impressive 20-length MSW romp at Keeneland earlier; seasonal debut off workouts. Proven at distance on fast tracks. Cox powerhouse (28% wins). Ortiz elite (30% wins). Post 6 ideal for pressing; class of field and top pick.
7. Thunder Buck (20/1 ML)
Another from Brad H. Cox, this 3-year-old colt carries (TBD) at 122 lbs. Owned by connections. Depth entry. Recent finishes: Allowance form. Cox barn hot. Post 7 may require wide run; value if sharp.The race shapes as a battle between Further Ado’s class and speed from types like Redland Rebels. Fast dirt favors tactical runners; expect a contested pace benefiting closers like Powershift. Exotics revolve around the top three morning-line contenders, with Further Ado holding the edge on proven graded form.
