Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET
Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
Broadcast: KFAA-TV (Mavericks local), FanDuel Sports Network Oklahoma (Thunder local), NBA League Pass (national/out-of-market)
Radio: 107.7 The Franchise (Thunder) / 97.1 The Ticket or KEGL 97.1 (Mavericks)
Team Context
The visiting Thunder are the NBA’s best team at 46-15 (.754), 1st in the Western Conference and Northwest Division with a stranglehold on the No. 1 seed. Oklahoma City leads the league in net rating and has been the most consistent club all season.
The host Mavericks sit at 21-38 (.356), 12th in the West and 4th in the Southwest — firmly in lottery territory and in full rebuild mode after a disastrous campaign marked by injuries, trades, and poor chemistry.
Recent Team Forms
Thunder (8-2 in last 10): OKC is rolling with elite defense (top-3 in points allowed) and balanced offense (118+ PPG). They just wrapped a tough stretch with wins over strong Western foes and own a 21-8 road record. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to dominate as an MVP frontrunner.
Mavericks (2-8 in last 10; L6 at home): Dallas is on a brutal skid, losing 11 of its last 13 overall and six straight at American Airlines Center. Offense has been anemic (~110 PPG lately, near league-worst), and defense has leaked (118+ allowed). They are 10-20 at home and have dropped their last two by double digits (including 105-124 to Memphis on Feb. 27).
Injury Report
Oklahoma City Thunder:
- Jalen Williams (SF) — Out (right hamstring strain; re-evaluation ~March 7)
- Branden Carlson (C) — Out (low back strain)
- Ajay Mitchell (G) — Out (ankle/abdominal strain)
- Alex Caruso (SG) — Day-to-Day (left ankle sprain)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG) — Probable (minor abdominal; expected to play)
Chet Holmgren and core rotation otherwise available.
Dallas Mavericks:
- Cooper Flagg (F) — Out (listed in multiple reports)
- Klay Thompson (SG) — Day-to-Day (rest)
- Marvin Bagley III (PF) — Day-to-Day (neck sprain)
- PJ Washington (SF) — Day-to-Day (left ankle sprain)
- Other depth pieces dealing with minor issues in a thin roster.
Series History
Thunder lead the 2025-26 season series 2-0 (and are 3-0 including last season’s final meeting).
- Dec. 5, 2025 (OKC): Thunder 132-111 Mavericks
Oklahoma City has won the last five meetings overall by an average of 18 points. Dallas has not beaten OKC since early 2024-25.
Projected Lineups & Player Matchups
Oklahoma City Thunder (Coach: Mark Daigneault)
Starters
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SG Alex Caruso (if active) / Cason Wallace
SF Isaiah Joe / Lu Dort
PF Chet Holmgren
C Isaiah Hartenstein Key Bench: Aaron Wiggins, Kenrich Williams, etc. Key Matchups:
- SGA vs. Dallas perimeter (Nembhard / Sheppard / Flagg if active) — Shai’s mid-range mastery and playmaking should feast on a depleted Mavericks backcourt.
- Holmgren vs. Dallas frontcourt — Chet’s spacing, rim protection, and switchability dominate a thin interior.
- Transition & 3-point volume — Thunder’s elite pace and shooting vs. Dallas’ leaky transition defense.
Dallas Mavericks (Coach: Jason Kidd)
Starters (projected, pending final injury decisions)
PG Andrew Nembhard / young guards
SG (Thompson if active) / depth
SF PJ Washington (if active) / Naji Marshall
PF (Bagley if active) / rotation
C (depth / Wiseman-type) Key Bench: Young prospects, Precious Achiuwa-type pieces, etc.
Key Matchups:
- Young core vs. Thunder length — Dallas’ developing players face elite defenders in SGA, Dort, and Holmgren.
- Rebounding battle — Mavericks need second-chance points but face one of the best rebounding teams in OKC.
- Pace control — Dallas wants to slow it down; Thunder will push tempo.
Betting Trends
- Thunder are 25-7 as road favorites and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. sub-.400 teams.
- Mavericks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 and 1-6 ATS at home during the current skid.
- UNDER has hit in 7 of Dallas’ last 10 home games.
- OKC has covered the spread in both 2025-26 meetings vs. DAL (by 21 and 14+ points).
- Thunder rank top-5 in defensive efficiency; Mavericks bottom-10 offensively.
Game Odds
Oklahoma City Thunder – 15.5
Dallas Mavericks 231.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, February 28, 2026
