Scheduled Post Time (Race 9): 5:15 PM CT (6:15 PM ET)
Venue: Oaklawn Park, 2709 Central Avenue, Hot Springs, Arkansas (main dirt track)
Distance: 1 1/16 miles (8.5 furlongs)
Surface: Dirt
Purse: $750,000 (Grade III; for 3-year-old fillies; Kentucky Oaks points: 50-25-15-10-5 to top five finishers)
Track Conditions (projected): Fast dirt. Oaklawn’s main track has been consistently fast and bias-neutral this meet, favoring balanced pace setups in two-turn races.
Expected Weather Conditions: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy with a high near 62–65°F by post time and light winds (5–10 mph from the south). 35–45% chance of isolated afternoon showers, but any precipitation should be brief and light with no impact on the well-draining surface. Overnight lows in the upper 30s°F. Typical mild early-March Arkansas conditions — perfect for racing.
Full Field Analysis
PP 1 – Take Charge Macy (KY-bred by Take Charge Indy out of Macy’s World by Macho Uno)
Jockey: Ramon A. Vazquez (solid Oaklawn rider with good timing on mid-pack fillies)
Trainer: Peter Miller (sharp shipper from California; excellent with stakes fillies)
Weight: 119 lbs
ML Odds: 20/1
Recent Finishes: Competitive in recent allowance/optional claimers; speed figures in the mid-80s to low-90s.
Analysis: Rail post helps early but she’ll likely rate mid-pack. Miller ships her in fresh and dangerous at a price. Live longshot for exotics if pace collapses; needs a perfect trip to threaten the top ones.
PP 2 – Sneaky Good (KY-bred by Into Mischief out of Good and Lucky by Smart Strike)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. (elite rider; perfect for tactical types)
Trainer: Brad H. Cox (dominant at Oaklawn; multiple stakes wins this meet)
Weight: 119 lbs
ML Odds: 8/1
Recent Finishes: Strong recent placings in allowance company; consistent mid-90s Beyer figures.
Analysis: Cox/Ortiz combo is always dangerous. Tactical speed to sit just off the pace and pounce. Pedigree screams two turns. Strong exotic play and live at square odds.
PP 3 – Grace Is Free (KY-bred by Free Drop Billy out of Graceful by Dixie Union)
Jockey: Kelsi Harr (local apprentice/value rider)
Trainer: Robert N. Cline (patient with improving 3YOs)
Weight: 119 lbs
ML Odds: 30/1
Recent Finishes: Mid-pack in recent tries; improving but unproven at this level.
Analysis: Longshot with upside. Can rate and close; good superfecta bomb if the pace melts. Cline gets them ready, but faces a tough task here.
PP 4 – Newtown Pike (KY-bred by Street Sense out of Pike Place by Street Cry)
Jockey: Abel Cedillo (aggressive; good with stalkers)
Trainer: Lindsay Schultz (solid with stakes-level fillies)
Weight: 119 lbs
ML Odds: 10/1
Recent Finishes: 2nd in the Martha Washington S. (Feb. 6 at Oaklawn).
Analysis: Sharp local form from the Martha Washington. Schultz has her peaking; Cedillo fits perfectly. Dangerous underneath and could improve stretching out.
PP 5 – Knickleandime (KY-bred by Audible out of Knickpoint by Include)
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano (veteran Oaklawn specialist)
Trainer: Randy L. Morse (consistent with mid-tier stakes horses)
Weight: 119 lbs
ML Odds: 12/1
Recent Finishes: 3rd in the Martha Washington S. (Feb. 6).
Analysis: Another strong Martha Washington placer. Morse excels at Oaklawn; Bejarano knows the track. Solid exotic filler with a big chance if the top choices overrate each other.
PP 6 – Search Party (KY-bred by Into Mischief out of Search and Destroy by Into Mischief)
Jockey: Cristian A. Torres (rising star; aggressive on closers)
Trainer: Mark E. Casse (hot barn; won the Martha Washington with this filly)
Weight: 121 lbs
ML Odds: 9/2
Recent Finishes: 1st (neck victory) in the Martha Washington S. (Feb. 6 at Oaklawn).
Analysis: Fresh off a sharp local stakes win. Casse is 50-50 on running her here vs. waiting for the Fantasy, but she’s proven at this trip. Torres gives her every chance. Major contender and live at a square price.
PP 7 – Counting Stars (KY-bred by Uncle Mo out of Twinkling by War Front)
Jockey: Francisco Arrieta (consistent local rider)
Trainer: Mark E. Casse (back-to-back Martha Washington entrants)
Weight: 119 lbs
ML Odds: 15/1
Recent Finishes: Eased and last (as favorite) in the Martha Washington (Feb. 6); no injuries reported.
Analysis: Talented but needs to bounce back from a puzzling effort. Casse says she’s a good horse when she shows up. Live longshot underneath if she rebounds.
PP 8 – Classic Glide (KY-bred by Classic Empire out of Glide On By by Candy Ride)
Jockey: Jaime A. Torres (solid with Medina barn)
Trainer: Robert Medina (improving with 3YOs)
Weight: 119 lbs
ML Odds: 30/1
Recent Finishes: Competitive in recent allowances; mid-80s figures.
Analysis: Longshot with closing kick. Medina gets them fit; Torres fits. Best as a deep exotic bomb.
PP 9 – Explora (KY-bred by Blame out of Exploring by Medaglia d’Oro)
Jockey: Flavien Prat (elite closer specialist; perfect for this filly)
Trainer: Bob Baffert (Hall of Famer; 7/5 favorite)
Weight: 121 lbs
ML Odds: 7/5 (favorite)
Recent Finishes: 2nd (1 ½ lengths) in the Las Virgenes S. (G3, Feb. 8 at Santa Anita — grueling speed duel); 1st (5 ¼ lengths) in Santa Ynez S.; 2nd (¾ length) in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). Eclipse Award finalist as 2YO.
Analysis: The class of the field and a natural router. Baffert ships her in fresh after the tough Las Virgenes loss. Prat knows exactly when to move. Looks to rebound and stamp herself as the Oaks favorite. Top selection.
PP 10 – Taken by the Wind (FL-bred by Wind of Change out of Taken by Storm by Storm Cat)
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. (McPeek’s go-to rider)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek (master with Oaks fillies)
Weight: 121 lbs
ML Odds: 5/2
Recent Finishes: 1st (dominant) in the Silverbulletday S. (Jan. 17 at Fair Grounds); undefeated 3-for-3.
Analysis: The local phenom remains perfect. McPeek has her as good as she can be. Outside post is manageable; she’ll stalk and pounce. The biggest threat to Explora and a must-use in all wagers.
