Scheduled Post Time (Race 5): 2:03 PM CT (3:03 PM ET)
Venue: Oaklawn Park, 2709 Central Avenue, Hot Springs, Arkansas (main dirt track)
Distance: 1 1/2 miles (12 furlongs)
Surface: Dirt
Purse: $135,000 (Overnight Stakes for 4-year-olds & upward which have not won a sweepstakes in 2025-2026; weights 124 lbs. with allowances)
Track Conditions (projected): Fast dirt. Oaklawn’s main track has been consistently fast this winter meet and drains exceptionally well.
Expected Weather Conditions: Mild early March weather with highs in the mid-60s°F (around 62-67°F by post time), lows in the low-to-mid 30s°F overnight. 40-52% chance of scattered showers or light rain possible in the afternoon, but any precipitation should be brief and light. Winds light (5-10 mph). Track should remain fast unless a heavier shower hits; if wet, it would play “good” with a slight bias toward inside posts and stalkers in the marathon distance.
Full Field Analysis
PP 1 – Otello (5/G, KY-bred by Curlin out of Isabella Sings by Eskendereya)
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano (veteran with strong Oaklawn win rate in routes)
Trainer: Wayne Potts (solid with front-running types; good local stats)
Weight: 117 lbs
ML Odds: 15/1
Recent Finishes: Competitive in recent allowances and optional claimers at Oaklawn and Fair Grounds; speed figures in the mid-90s to low-100s.
Analysis: The likely lone early speed from the rail. Bejarano can ration him perfectly over the marathon trip. Potts excels getting cheap speed to relax and wire fields at this distance. Vulnerable late if pressed, but the rail and pace scenario make him a live longshot to steal it or set up the closers.
PP 2 – Archie the Giza (5/G, KY-bred by Cairo Prince out of Gloria S by Tapit)
Jockey: Cristian A. Torres (aggressive rider who fits stalkers well)
Trainer: Robert Medina (improving barn with mid-level claimers/allowance horses)
Weight: 117 lbs
ML Odds: 20/1
Recent Finishes: Recent mid-pack placings in allowance company at Oaklawn.
Analysis: Classic longshot with tactical speed to sit just off Otello. Torres knows how to save ground. Medina gets them fit for these spots. Best as an exotic bomb underneath in exactas/trifectas if the pace heats up early.
PP 3 – Quality Chic (5/G, KY-bred by Quality Road out of Chica Boom Chic by Tapit)
Jockey: Erik Asmussen (rising young rider in the family barn)
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (Hall of Famer; dominant at Oaklawn with depth)
Weight: 117 lbs
ML Odds: 12/1
Recent Finishes: Consistent placer in recent allowances; speed figures climbing into the 100-105 range.
Analysis: Asmussen barn is always dangerous in these overnight stakes. Quality Chic has the pedigree (Quality Road/Tapit cross) to love the stretch-out to 1 1/2 miles. Mid-pack stalker who can close strongly. Excellent exotic filler at a square price.
PP 4 – Catching Freedom (5/G, KY-bred by Constitution out of Catch My Drift by Pioneerof the Nile)
Jockey: Flavien Prat (elite closer specialist; perfect for this trip)
Trainer: Brad H. Cox (top national trainer; excellent with older routers)
Weight: 117 lbs
ML Odds: 6/5 (favorite)
Recent Finishes: 3rd (sharp effort, 118 speed figure) in 1 1/16-mile AlwOC at Oaklawn Feb. 7, 2026; 9th (bounced) in allowance Jan. 4 at Oaklawn; solid placings in 2025 (2nd at Keeneland, 3rd at Churchill).
Analysis: The classiest horse in the field and a natural router (Smarty Jones winner as a 3-year-old). Cox stretches him out after recent shorter tries, and Prat is a master at rationing energy over long distances. Has the tactical versatility to stalk or close. Top selection — looks like a perfect spot to return to the winner’s circle.
PP 5 – Systemic Change (5/G, KY-bred by Ghostzapper out of Majestic River by A.P. Indy)
Jockey: Ramon A. Vazquez (consistent Oaklawn rider)
Trainer: Michael J. Maker (master with routers and shippers; high win % in stakes)
Weight: 117 lbs
ML Odds: 4/1
Recent Finishes: Open-length winner last out in a 1 1/8-mile allowance (strong speed figure).
Analysis: Bred to love the marathon (Ghostzapper/A.P. Indy). Maker is unbeatable stretching horses out, and Vazquez fits perfectly. Comes in with peak form and should relish the extra ground. Strong contender to run 1-2 with the top picks.
PP 6 – Batten Down (5/G, KY-bred by Tapit out of Close Hatches by First Defence)
Jockey: John R. Velazquez (Hall of Fame rider; big-race closer)
Trainer: William I. Mott (Hall of Famer; supplemented this one in)
Weight: 117 lbs
Recent Finishes: 3rd (game, 118 speed figure) in 1 1/16-mile AOC at Gulfstream Jan. 16, 2026; 5th in 2025 Excelsior (listed) at Aqueduct; 4th in 2025 Mineshaft (G3).
Analysis: Mott supplemented this Tapit son (out of champion Close Hatches) specifically for the distance. All wins have come on the lead, but he’s shown stalking ability (e.g., 3rd in 2024 Jim Dandy behind Fierceness and Sierra Leone). Velazquez knows exactly when to move. Big threat if he gets an easy trip from the outside.
