Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 PM EST
Venue: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
TV: SN, CBC, TVAS2, ESPN+
The Battle of Ontario resumes in a heated Atlantic Division matchup as the Ottawa Senators visit the struggling Toronto Maple Leafs. Both teams sit in the middle of the Atlantic pack, with Ottawa holding a slight edge in points and playoff positioning (around 6th in division), while Toronto fights to snap a home skid and climb back into contention. This rivalry game always brings intensity, especially post-Olympic break.
Team Context
- Senators: 28-22-8 (64 points), 6th Atlantic / Eastern bubble. Solid road form (14-12-3 away), positive goal differential in recent stretches, strong secondary scoring.
- Maple Leafs: 27-23-9 (63 points), 7th Atlantic / pressing for wild-card/division spot. Home record mixed (16-9-6 but recent struggles), negative trends in goals against lately.
Recent Form
Senators enter motivated after a 1-2 OT loss to Detroit on Feb. 26 (their post-break opener; Brady Tkachuk scored, but defensive lapses cost them). They’ve been competitive (6-3-1 in last 10 per trends), with Tim Stutzle (28G-33A) leading and depth like Stephen Halliday contributing (4G-1A in recent 10). Ottawa has shown resilience on the road.
Maple Leafs are slumping at home, on a five-game home losing streak (most recent a 1-5 road loss to Florida on Feb. 26 post-break; Panthers scored three in first). They’ve gone 3-6-1 in recent stretches, with defensive issues and inability to hold leads. Auston Matthews and William Nylander remain key, but team needs bounce-back.
Injury Report
Senators
- Tim Stutzle (C) – Day-to-Day (game-time decision; points streak at 8 games entering break—huge if he plays).
- Nikolas Matinpalo (D) – Out (status for Feb. 28 unclear).
- David Perron (LW) – IR (return ~Mar 14).
- Linus Ullmark (G) – Day-to-Day (recent practice return from leave; probable if cleared).
Maple Leafs
- Chris Tanev (D) – IR-LT (return ~Mar 2).
- No major new reports post-break; core forwards (Matthews, Nylander, Tavares) expected available, though Nylander had prior lower-body concerns earlier in season.
Key Player Matchups
- Goaltending: Anton Forsberg / Linus Ullmark (OTT – solid tandem) vs. Joseph Woll / Anthony Stolarz (TOR – home support key). Edge to Ottawa if Ullmark plays.
- Top Lines: Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk–Tim Stutzle–Claude Giroux (physical, skilled) vs. Toronto’s Auston Matthews–William Nylander–Mitch Marner (elite offense). Matthews (top scorer) vs. Tkachuk’s leadership.
- Scoring Depth: Senators’ Drake Batherson, Shane Pinto vs. Leafs’ John Tavares, Max Domi. Toronto’s PP potent but PK vulnerable lately.
- Defense: Ottawa’s mobile group (Thomas Chabot) vs. Toronto’s Morgan Rielly anchoring amid home struggles.
Special teams: Toronto strong PP; Ottawa improved PK. Expect power plays to factor in rivalry intensity.
Series History (2025-26 Season)
Toronto leads the season series 1-0:
- Dec. 27: TOR 7-5 vs. OTT (high-scoring affair at Scotiabank).
Toronto has historical edge in recent meetings, but Ottawa competitive (Sens won 6 of last 10 overall trends). Rivalry games often high-event.
Betting Trends
- Total: Recent head-to-head high-scoring (7-5); both offenses capable, defenses leaky lately. Overs in Toronto home games during skid.
- Other Trends: Senators 6-3 SU last 9; Maple Leafs 0-5 SU home skid. Ottawa 2-5 SU last 7 vs. TOR but road overs common.
This Battle of Ontario clash promises emotion and skill. Toronto’s home crowd and need to halt the skid give them the edge, but Ottawa’s depth and Stutzle factor could make it competitive.
Game Odds
Ottawa Senators – 118
Toronto Maple Leafs 5.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, February 27, 2026
