Horse Race Preview: Race 8 – Stymie Stakes at Aqueduct

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Aqueduct Racetrack – Ozone Park, Queens, New York
1 mile (one turn) – Dirt – For 4-year-olds and upward
Scheduled Post Time: 4:15 PM ET

Aqueduct Racetrack is located at 110-00 Rockaway Blvd in Ozone Park, Queens, New York. The Stymie Stakes, named after the legendary handicap star of the 1940s, is a traditional mid-winter test for older horses and serves as a key local prep for the Grade II Carter (April 5) and other spring stakes. This year’s edition drew a compact, competitive field of six on Gotham Day, part of a loaded 10-race card.

Expected Weather
Cold and dry with highs near 47°F (8°C) by post time and lows in the low 30s°F overnight. Skies partly to mostly cloudy with light winds (5–10 mph northwest). Precipitation chance near 0%. Track temperatures in the low-to-mid 40s°F. The main dirt track is currently fast and should stay that way — no overnight moisture and recent cards have been played on a firm, sealed-fast surface in similar cold/dry conditions.

Track Conditions: Main dirt track – expected fast. Aqueduct’s winter inner dirt has favored inside posts and tactical speed in one-turn miles this meet, with stalkers and closers getting their chance when early fractions are honest. No extreme bias noted in recent condition books.

Full Field with Post Positions, Morning-Line Odds, Jockeys, Trainers, Weights:

PPHorseAge/SexML OddsWeightJockeyTrainer
1Ridgewood Runner6YO Gelding12/1119Christopher ElliottMichelle Nevin
2Full Screen7YO Gelding8/5121Manuel FrancoBrad H. Cox
3Phileas Fogg5YO Horse9/5123Jaime RodriguezGustavo Rodriguez
4Yo Daddy5YO Gelding5/1119Jose LezcanoLinda Rice
5Counterspy6YO Gelding15/1119Francisco MartinezRobert Mosco
6Komorebino Omoide (JPN)6YO Horse7/2123Ramon A. VazquezRob Atras

Detailed Analysis of Each Horse, Jockey, and Trainer:

PP 1 – Ridgewood Runner (Klimt – Honored Promise, 6YO Gelding, 12/1, 119 lbs, J: Christopher Elliott, T: Michelle Nevin)
A six-time winner and consistent grinder for the Nevin barn. He’s a confirmed closer who has hit the board in several recent optional-claiming and allowance races at Aqueduct and elsewhere. Elliott is a capable rider on the inner rail, but this is a sharp class hike. Nevin knows the track well and has had success with similar longshots in winter stakes. He’ll need a hot pace and a clean trip from the fence to factor late; best used in the superfecta or as a deep bomb at 12/1.

PP 2 – Full Screen (Big Screen – Lyndenshire, 7YO Gelding, 8/5, 121 lbs, J: Manuel Franco, T: Brad H. Cox)
The clear morning-line favorite and most logical winner. This multiple stakes-winning Ontario-bred has been dominant since being haltered for $100,000 last summer: a six-length optional-claiming romp here in November and a five-length score in the Listed Queens County on Dec. 27 (career-best 101 Beyer). Cox (dual Eclipse winner) has him razor-sharp, and Franco is a perfect fit on the one-turn mile. He has tactical speed, loves the Aqueduct surface, and projects to sit a dream stalking trip just off any early pace. Very tough to beat in current form.

PP 3 – Phileas Fogg (Astern (AUS) – …, 5YO Horse, 9/5, 123 lbs, J: Jaime Rodriguez, T: Gustavo Rodriguez)
A legitimate Grade 2 winner making his first start with blinkers removed. He has high-class form and the speed to be forwardly placed from post 3. Rodriguez retains the mount and should have him in a perfect stalking position. The barn is sharp at the meet, and this cutback to one mile should suit his style perfectly. At 9/5 he’s a short price, but the class and recent works make him a major threat to the favorite.

PP 4 – Yo Daddy (Yoshida (JPN) – Elle Stormin’, 5YO Gelding, 5/1, 119 lbs, J: Jose Lezcano, T: Linda Rice)
Multiple graded stakes-placed and Aqueduct’s winter meet-leading trainer Linda Rice’s top hope. He just won a nine-furlong optional-claiming route here on Feb. 4 by 1¾ lengths and has hit the board in 12 of his last 15 starts since Rice claimed him for $50,000. Lezcano is excellent at rationing speed on this track. The cutback to one mile is a question mark (he was fifth in last year’s Stymie), but his consistency and Rice’s hot hand make him a live exotic play at 5/1.

PP 5 – Counterspy (Gun Runner – …, 6YO Gelding, 15/1, 119 lbs, J: Francisco Martinez, T: Robert Mosco)
Grade 3-placed veteran with lower recent figures. He’s a confirmed closer who can pick up pieces when the pace collapses, but this field is deeper than his typical level. Martinez is capable, and Mosco hits occasional longshots at the meet, but at 15/1 he’s best used only in the bottom of multis.

PP 6 – Komorebino Omoide (JPN) (California Chrome – Decennial, 6YO Horse, 7/2, 123 lbs, J: Ramon A. Vazquez, T: Rob Atras)
The well-traveled graded stakes winner (G3 Steve Sexton Mile, etc.) makes his New York and first start for new trainer Rob Atras. A versatile 6-time winner with wins at a mile and sprints, he pressed fast fractions and finished a solid fifth in the Listed Tenacious last out. Vazquez (meet leader) gets the mount, and the sharp 5-furlong work (1:01.20) on Feb. 19 at Fair Grounds shows he’s ready. The class is there, but the cross-country trip and new barn are question marks. Live second choice at 7/2 with big upside.

Overall Outlook and Betting Angles:
This is a high-quality Listed stakes with two standouts in Full Screen (#2) (recent Aqueduct dominance and Cox barn) and Phileas Fogg (#3) (G2 winner with ideal post). Komorebino Omoide (#6) adds international class at a square price, while Yo Daddy (#4) offers value as a consistent Rice runner cutting back. Pace should be moderate-to-honest with Full Screen and possibly Ridgewood Runner involved early, setting it up for stalkers.