Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Lenovo Center, Raleigh, North Carolina
Broadcast: ESPN+ (national/streaming), FanDuel Sports Network South / The Spot (Carolina regional), additional regional feeds
Game Context
A marquee Eastern Conference showdown between the top two teams in the league standings. Tampa Bay leads the Atlantic Division and sits atop the Eastern Conference with 80 points. Carolina is 1st in the Metropolitan Division and just two points back overall (78 points). Both clubs are elite defensive teams with high-end scoring talent, making this one of the highest-quality regular-season matchups of the year. Every point is critical as the playoff positioning tightens.
Recent Form
- Lightning: Outstanding 9-1-0 in their last 10 games (including a 6-game win streak entering the break). They opened the post-Olympic schedule with a 4-2 road win over Toronto on Feb. 25. Tampa Bay ranks 2nd in the NHL in both goals scored per game (3.55) and goals allowed per game (2.50).
- Hurricanes: 8-0-2 in their last 10 games pre-break (10-game point streak). Their final pre-break game was a 2-0 home win over the Rangers on Feb. 5. Carolina has been one of the hottest teams in the league and plays with elite structure and speed at home.
Injury Report
Tampa Bay Lightning:
- Anthony Cirelli (C) – Upper body (out; expected to miss at least the next 1-2 games)
- Nick Paul (LW) – Lower body/undisclosed (IR)
- Max Crozier (D) – Core/abdomen (IR, out ~10 weeks)
Positive notes: Brayden Point and Victor Hedman (Olympic participants) are expected back and in the lineup. Erik Cernak also available after Olympic duty.
Carolina Hurricanes:
- Pyotr Kochetkov (G) – Hip (likely out for the season)
- Eric Robinson (LW) – Upper body (returning after missing 7 games)
Positive notes: Sebastian Aho (felt “run down” post-Olympics) is expected to play. Frederik Andersen and Brandon Bussi (hot lately) anchor the net.
Projected Lineups & Goalies
Lightning (Coach Jon Cooper)
F: Gage Goncalves – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
F: Jake Guentzel – Dominic James – Brandon Hagel
F: Zemgus Girgensons – Yanni Gourde – Pontus Holmberg
F: Oliver Bjorkstrand – Scott Sabourin (or similar depth)
D: J.J. Moser – Darren Raddysh
D: Ryan McDonagh – Erik Cernak
D: Charle-Edouard D’Astous – Emil Lilleberg / Victor Hedman rotation
G: Jonas Johansson (likely) / Andrei Vasilevskiy
Scratched: Curtis Douglas, Declan Carlile
Injured: Cirelli, Paul, Crozier
Hurricanes (Coach Rod Brind’Amour)
F: Andrei Svechnikov – Sebastian Aho – Seth Jarvis
F: Taylor Hall – Logan Stankoven – Jackson Blake
F: Nikolaj Ehlers – Jordan Staal – Jordan Martinook
F: William Carrier – Jesperi Kotkaniemi – Eric Robinson
D: Jaccob Slavin – Jalen Chatfield
D: K’Andre Miller – Sean Walker
D: Shayne Gostisbehere – Alexander Nikishin
G: Brandon Bussi (hot streak) / Frederik Andersen
Scratched: Mark Jankowski, Mike Reilly
Injured: Kochetkov
Key Player Matchups
- Nikita Kucherov / Brayden Point vs. Carolina’s top pairing (Slavin/Chatfield or Miller): Kucherov leads the league in points (near 94 in 52 GP); Carolina’s shutdown defense will be tested.
- Sebastian Aho / Seth Jarvis vs. Tampa’s checking lines: Aho’s two-way game and speed are pivotal against Tampa’s speed.
- Goaltending battle: Vasilevskiy (elite .921 SV%, 2.11 GAA among starters) or Johansson vs. Bussi (winner of last 7 starts, recent shutout) or Andersen. Both teams boast top-tier netminding.
- Special teams: Lightning PP (21.9%, 12th) vs. Carolina PK (80.6%, 11th); Carolina PP (21.6%) vs. Lightning PK (83.5%, 5th).
Series History (2025-26 Season)
Tampa Bay leads the season series 1-0 after a wild 6-4 win on Dec. 20 (Carolina led 3-0 after the first period but collapsed). Historically, these teams play tight, high-event games, but Tampa has the slight edge in recent head-to-head outcomes.
Betting Trends
- The total has gone UNDER in recent high-quality Eastern matchups for both clubs.
- Carolina is 35-17 as a moneyline favorite this season and dominant at home.
- Tampa Bay is red-hot (9-1-0 last 10) but playing the second half of a back-to-back (after winning in Toronto on Feb. 25).
- Both teams rank top-6 in goals allowed; combined scoring average suggests a lower-scoring affair than the season norm.
- Hurricanes have earned points in 10 straight; Lightning have won 6 straight.
Game Odds
Tampa Bay Lightning 6.5
Carolina Hurricanes – 148
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Wednesday, February 25, 2026
