Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, Florida
Broadcast: ESPN+ (U.S. national/streaming), SCRIPPS (Panthers regional TV), TSN4 & TVAS (Canada)
Game Context
Both Atlantic Division clubs sit outside the playoffs with 25 games remaining and are desperate for points. Toronto holds 63 points and sits two points ahead of Florida in the division (6th vs. 8th). The Panthers trail the second Eastern Conference wild-card spot by eight points. Every game carries massive weight in this tight Eastern bubble.
Recent Form
- Maple Leafs: 3-6-1 in their last 10 games (entering this contest). They opened the post-Olympic schedule with a 4-2 road loss to Tampa Bay on Feb. 25. Offensively capable but defensively vulnerable (allowing 3.40 goals per game, 27th in the NHL).
- Panthers: 4-6-0 in their last 10 games before the Olympic break, capped by a ugly 6-1 road loss at Tampa Bay on Feb. 5. This is Florida’s first game back after the three-week break; rust and re-integration of Olympians are factors. The Panthers have been outscored in recent play and rank 19th in goals scored per game (2.98).
Injury Report
Florida Panthers (significant absences):
- Aleksander Barkov (C) – Knee (out for the season)
- Seth Jones (D) – Upper body/collarbone (LTIR, close but out)
- Tomas Nosek (LW) – Knee (IR)
- Jonah Gadjovich (LW) – Upper body (IR)
- Dmitry Kulikov (D) – Shoulder/upper body (IR, skating but out tonight)
- Tobias Bjornfot (D) – Undisclosed (scratched)
Positive notes: Brad Marchand, Evan Rodrigues, and Aaron Ekblad return after missing the final pre-break game. Tomas Nosek, Kulikov, and Gadjovich skated in regular jerseys but remain sidelined.
Toronto Maple Leafs:
- Chris Tanev (D) – Groin (IR)
- Dakota Mermis (D) – Knee (injured reserve)
Positive notes: Dakota Joshua (lacerated kidney, missed 20 games) activated off LTIR and expected to draw in tonight. Auston Matthews (fresh off captaining Team USA to Olympic gold) and the rest of the Olympic contingent are available.
Projected Lineups & Goalies
Maple Leafs (Coach Craig Berube)
F: McMann – Matthews – Domi
F: Maccelli – Tavares – Nylander
F: Knies – Roy – Robertson
F: Lorentz – Laughton – Joshua
D: Rielly – Carlo
D: McCabe – Ekman-Larsson
D: Benoit – Stecher
G: Joseph Woll (expected starter; 13-7-4, 2.92 GAA, .910 SV%, 2 SO)
Backup: Anthony Stolarz
Scratches: Cowan, Myers, Jarnkrok
Panthers (Coach Paul Maurice)
F: Verhaeghe – Rodrigues – Reinhart
F: Samoskevich – Bennett – Tkachuk
F: Luostarinen – Lundell – Marchand
F: Greer – Schwindt – Vilmanis
D: Forsling – Ekblad
D: Mikkola – Balinskis
D: Sebrango – Petry
G: Sergei Bobrovsky (expected starter; 21-17-1, 3.13 GAA, .871 SV%, 3 SO)
Backup: Daniil Tarasov
Scratches: Kunin, Boqvist, Bjornfot
Key Player Matchups
- Auston Matthews / William Nylander vs. Florida’s top pairing (Forsling-Ekblad): Matthews (26G, 49P in 52 GP) and Nylander (18G-36A-54P in 41 GP) give Toronto elite skill. Florida’s structure without Barkov and Jones will be tested.
- John Tavares (48P) line vs. Sam Bennett / Matthew Tkachuk: Tavares is riding a three-game point streak and has historically feasted on Florida’s bottom-six matchups.
- Dakota Joshua’s return: Adds physicality and energy to Toronto’s fourth line in his first action since December.
- Goaltending edge: Woll has owned the Panthers this season (strong 4-1 win on Jan. 6 with 31/32 saves). Bobrovsky is 16-11-1 lifetime vs. Toronto but has been inconsistent (.871 SV% this year).
Series History
Toronto leads the 2025-26 season series 2-0-0 and has outscored Florida 8-2.
- Dec. 2, 2025: TOR 4-1 @ FLA
- Jan. 6, 2026: TOR 4-1 vs. FLA (Woll 31/32 saves)
The Panthers have yet to solve Toronto’s speed and goaltending this year.
Betting Trends
- The Over is 66-45-4 in combined games involving these clubs this season.
- Florida is just 17-23 as a moneyline favorite overall and 1-4 in its last 5 games.
- Toronto has cleared the 2.5 team-total goal line in both head-to-head matchups and in 4 of its last 6 overall.
- Panthers are 3-6-1 in their last 10 home games; Maple Leafs are 11-12-3 on the road.
- Post-Olympic break games often trend lower-scoring due to rust, but Toronto’s leaky defense (27th in GA/GP) and Florida’s home urgency push expectations toward 6+ goals.
Game Odds
Toronto Maple Leafs 6.5
Florida Panthers – 162
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Wednesday, February 25, 2026
