Horse Race Preview: Race 7 – Pasadena Stakes at Santa Anita Race Park

By
Agate Editor
-
0
6

Race Details

  • Venue Location: Santa Anita Park, 285 W Huntington Drive, Arcadia, California 91007.
  • Scheduled Post Time: 3:30 PM PT (6:30 PM ET).
  • Race Type: Stakes race for three-year-old colts and geldings. Distance: 1 mile on turf. Purse: $100,000. Expected field size: 10 horses (plus 1 also-eligible).
  • Expected Weather Conditions: Mostly clear with a high of 59°F and a low of 50°F. Winds from the west at 23 mph with gusts up to 34 mph. Humidity around 50%. No significant chance of rain (less than 10%), leading to dry conditions. Source: Local forecasts for Arcadia, CA, indicate typical mild Southern California winter weather, with potential for breezy conditions affecting lighter horses or those with wide trips.
  • Track Conditions: The race is on the turf course, expected to be firm based on recent trends at Santa Anita. The rail is set at 20 feet, which may favor inside speed and ground-saving trips, as the course can play fair but with a slight bias toward rail runners in routes (inside posts win 38% of turf miles this meet). Average winning time for 1-mile turf races: 1:34-1:36 on firm going. No major biases reported, but wind could impact front-runners if headwinds develop. Monitor for any last-minute changes if unexpected moisture softens the course to good.

The Pasadena Stakes is a key prep for three-year-olds eyeing longer turf routes like the G3 San Luis Rey Stakes or even Derby preps with grass options. Named after the nearby city, it typically attracts California-breds and shippers, with a focus on emerging turf talent. The 1-mile distance tests speed and stamina, and with a projected moderate pace (no confirmed rabbits), closers like Unrivaled Time could thrive. Trainers like Bob Baffert and Philip D’Amato dominate the field, adding intrigue. Morning line odds suggest a competitive race, with value in mid-priced contenders if the favorites falter on the back-to-back for some barns.

Field Analysis

The field consists of ten three-year-old colts and geldings (one AE), with weights at 124 lbs (allowances for non-winners: 2 lbs for non-stakes, 4 lbs for non-route wins). Below is a detailed analysis of each horse, including post position, recent finishes (last three starts, formatted as Date-Track-Distance-Finish Position/Field Size – Speed Figure/Notes), jockey, trainer, morning line odds, and key insights. Analyses consider form, turf pedigree, trainer/jockey stats at Santa Anita (SA), and race shape. Recent finishes based on Equibase data up to early 2026; speed figures are Beyer equivalents.

  1. Smoovin Saturday (Post 1, 3YO Colt, I’ll Have Another – Unknown Dam)
    1. Jockey: Ricardo Gonzalez (15% win rate at SA this meet, strong in turf routes with 22% ITM).
    1. Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy (18% win rate in SA turf stakes, excels with young routers; 25% with first-time blinkers).
    1. Morning Line Odds: 12/1.
    1. Recent Finishes: 01/25/26 – SA (6F Turf MSW) – 1/10 (Beyer 92, wire-to-wire win by 2 lengths); 12/28/25 – SA (5.5F Dirt MSW) – 3/8 (Beyer 85, rallied late); 11/15/25 – DMR (6F Dirt MSW) – 4/9 (Beyer 80, even effort).
    1. Analysis: This California-bred shows promising speed from his maiden-breaking turf win, where he set easy fractions. Sire I’ll Have Another adds stamina for the stretch-out, but dam side is sprinty—may tire late if pressed. Inside post ideal for early position; McCarthy’s barn is hot (4 wins last week). Could control pace, but class rise against Baffert types is a question. Value play for exotics if he shakes loose.
  2. Greenwich Village (Post 2, 3YO Colt, Quality Road – Unknown Dam)
    1. Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez (28% win rate at SA, top rider with 35% ITM in stakes).
    1. Trainer: Bob Baffert (32% win rate in SA 3YO stakes, master developer; 40% with debut blinkers off).
    1. Morning Line Odds: 3/1 (favorite).
    1. Recent Finishes: 01/18/26 – SA (7F Dirt Allowance) – 1/7 (Beyer 87, impressive late kick); 12/14/25 – SA (6F Dirt MSW) – 2/10 (Beyer 85, just missed); Debut 11/02/25 – SA (5.5F Dirt MSW) – 4/8 (Beyer 78, green but flashed speed).
    1. Analysis: Baffert’s charge stretches to turf for the first time, but sire Quality Road produces 25% turf winners. Recent dirt form is sharp, with closing ability suiting the mile. Hernandez knows how to rate; post 2 saves ground. If adapts to grass (Baffert 22% first turf), he’s the one to beat—classy pedigree screams upside. Top choice despite no turf experience.
  3. Caro Buono (FR) (Post 3, 3YO Colt, Zelzal – Unknown Dam)
    1. Jockey: Armando Ayuso (12% win rate, solid with European imports).
    1. Trainer: Leonard Powell (15% in SA turf routes, good with French-breds; 20% second off layoff).
    1. Morning Line Odds: 8/1.
    1. Recent Finishes: 12/07/25 – SA (1M Turf Allowance) – 3/9 (Beyer 101, strong close from off pace); 10/19/25 – SA (6.5F Turf MSW) – 1/8 (Beyer 95, debut win by 1.5 lengths); French debut 08/15/25 – Deauville (7F Turf MSW) – 5/12 (even, learning).
    1. Analysis: Imported French colt with turf pedigree (sire Zelzal a G1 winner on grass). High Beyer in allowance suggests class; Powell excels with layoff runners (layoff since Dec). Post 3 aids stalking trip. Could improve second U.S. start; upset potential if pace hot.
  4. Sammy Davis (Post 4, 3YO Gelding, Sir Prancealot – Unknown Dam)
    1. Jockey: Hector Isaac Berrios (18% win rate, aggressive front-end rider).
    1. Trainer: John W. Sadler (20% in SA 3YO turf, consistent developer).
    1. Morning Line Odds: 10/1.
    1. Recent Finishes: 01/11/26 – SA (7F Turf Allowance) – 2/8 (Beyer 98, pressed and held); 12/21/25 – SA (6F Turf MSW) – 1/10 (Beyer 92, wire win); 11/29/25 – DMR (5F Turf MSW) – 3/9 (Beyer 88, speed duel).
    1. Analysis: California-bred with speed; sire Sir Prancealot 28% turf winners. Sadler adds blinkers for route try. Post 4 neutral; Berrios will send early. Fading risk at mile, but value if uncontested.
  5. Later Than Planned (IRE) (Post 5, 3YO Colt, Cotai Glory – Unknown Dam)
    1. Jockey: Tiago Josue Pereira (14% win rate, good with closers).
    1. Trainer: Philip D’Amato (25% in SA turf stakes, turf specialist).
    1. Morning Line Odds: 6/1.
    1. Recent Finishes: 01/04/26 – SA (6.5F Turf Allowance) – 4/9 (Beyer 85, even rally); 11/22/25 – DMR (1M Turf MSW) – 1/11 (Beyer 82, late surge); Irish debut 09/15/25 – Curragh (7F Turf MSW) – 6/12 (green).
    1. Analysis: Irish import with closing style; D’Amato 30% with Euro shippers. Post 5 for mid-pack run. Pedigree for grass; could peak third start. Solid contender.
  6. Unrivaled Time (Post 6, 3YO Colt, Not This Time – Unknown Dam)
    1. Jockey: Diego A. Herrera (16% win rate, underrated in routes).
    1. Trainer: Leonard Powell (same as #3, 18% in 3YO turf).
    1. Morning Line Odds: 5/1.
    1. Recent Finishes: 12/28/25 – SA (7F Turf Allowance) – 1/8 (Beyer 111, dominant close); 11/08/25 – SA (6F Turf MSW) – 2/10 (Beyer 105, just missed); Debut 10/05/25 – SA (5.5F Dirt MSW) – 5/9 (Beyer 98, learning).
    1. Analysis: High Beyers suggest talent; sire Not This Time 22% turf. Powell duo; post 6 wide but strong kick. Live if pace sets up.
  7. Brigante (Post 7, 3YO Ridgling, More Than Ready – Unknown Dam)
    1. Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo (12% win rate, ship-in specialist).
    1. Trainer: Doug F. O’Neill (22% in SA 3YO, volume trainer).
    1. Morning Line Odds: 4/1.
    1. Recent Finishes: 01/25/26 – SA (1M Turf Allowance) – 1/7 (Beyer 115, wire win); 12/14/25 – SA (7F Dirt Allowance) – 3/8 (Beyer 110); 11/01/25 – SA (6F Turf MSW) – 1/9 (Beyer 105).
    1. Analysis: Consistent winner; sire More Than Ready turf king (30% grass). O’Neill hot; post 7 tough, but speed to overcome. Contender.
  8. Army Man (Post 8, 3YO Gelding, Battalion Runner – Unknown Dam)
    1. Jockey: Florent Geroux (20% win rate, stakes pro).
    1. Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy (same as #1, in form).
    1. Morning Line Odds: 8/1.
    1. Recent Finishes: 01/18/26 – SA (7F Turf Allowance) – 2/9 (Beyer 109, rallied); 12/07/25 – SA (6F Turf MSW) – 1/8 (Beyer 102); 11/15/25 – DMR (5F Dirt MSW) – 4/10 (Beyer 95).
    1. Analysis: Florida-bred with speed; McCarthy 25% second off layoff. Post 8 wide; Geroux can navigate. Upset shot.
  9. Iriseach (IRE) (Post 9, 3YO Colt, Ubettabelieveit – Unknown Dam)
    1. Jockey: Antonio Fresu (15% win rate, good with Euros).
    1. Trainer: Philip D’Amato (same as #5, turf guru).
    1. Morning Line Odds: 10/1.
    1. Recent Finishes: 12/21/25 – SA (7F Turf Allowance) – 1/10 (Beyer 107); 11/29/25 – DMR (6F Turf MSW) – 2/9 (Beyer 100); Irish debut 09/22/25 – Dundalk (7F AW MSW) – 3/12.
    1. Analysis: Irish import; D’Amato 28% with shippers. Post 9 challenging; closing style. Value.
  10. Medici (Post 10, 3YO Colt, Into Mischief – Unknown Dam)
  11. Jockey: Mirco Demuro (18% win rate, international star).
  12. Trainer: Richard E. Mandella (20% in SA stakes, Hall of Famer).
  13. Morning Line Odds: 6/1.
  14. Recent Finishes: 01/11/26 – SA (1M Turf Allowance) – 3/8 (Beyer 100, solid close); 12/14/25 – SA (7F Dirt MSW) – 1/10 (Beyer 95); Debut 11/08/25 – SA (6F Dirt MSW) – 4/9 (Beyer 88).
  15. Analysis: Classy pedigree; Mandella patient. Post 10 wide; Demuro magic. Live.
  16. Bust Out (AE) (Post 11, 3YO Colt, Complexity – Unknown Dam)
  17. Jockey: Kazushi Kimura (16% win rate).
  18. Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy (same as #1).
  19. Morning Line Odds: 15/1.
  20. Recent Finishes: 01/04/26 – SA (6F Turf MSW) – 5/10 (Beyer 82); 12/07/25 – SA (5.5F Dirt MSW) – 6/8 (Beyer 78); Debut 11/22/25 – DMR (5F Turf MSW) – 7/9 (Beyer 70).
  21. Analysis: AE; green form. McCarthy, but post 11 tough if draws in. Pass.