Race Overview
The $100,000 Mardi Gras Stakes (Listed) is scheduled for Tuesday, February 17, 2026, at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans, Louisiana. This legendary venue, situated in the Gentilly neighborhood just minutes from the French Quarter, boasts a one-mile dirt oval and a seven-furlong turf course renowned for its firm, speed-favoring grass that often produces thrilling downhill turf sprints. The race is the eighth on a nine-race Tuesday card (Fat Tuesday), with a scheduled post time of 4:15 PM CT (5:15 PM ET).
Contested over 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf for fillies and mares 4 years old and upward, this Listed event is a highlight of the Carnival week, drawing sharp sprinters from across the Gulf Coast and beyond. All horses carry 120 lbs (with 3 lbs off for non-winners of a stakes since November 2025), and the purse includes $60,000 to the winner. The downhill turf course at Fair Grounds typically rewards tactical speed and inside posts, though closers can pounce if the pace is honest.
Expected weather conditions in New Orleans on February 17: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny, with a high of 68°F and lows near 55°F. Winds from the south-southeast at 5-10 mph, humidity around 70%, and a 30% chance of light showers in the late afternoon. The turf is currently listed as firm but could slip to good if rain materializes—favoring horses with proven wet-turf form or those who handle a yielding surface.
The field of nine features a mix of established stakes performers and improving allowance types, with Lotsandlotsofcandy the 2/1 morning line favorite off her recent dirt success and turf experiment. Pace should be lively, setting up for a tactical battle on the grass.
Field Analysis (By Post Position)
1. Big Trouble (KY)
- Morning Line Odds: 9/2
- Jockey: Declan Cannon (18% win rate at Fair Grounds; aggressive rider who excels in turf sprints)
- Trainer: Gregory D. Foley (22% wins; local specialist with a hot meet)
- Breeding: Kantharos – Big Drama Queen (by Big Drama)
- Recent Finishes: Last: 1st in allowance optional claiming (5 1/2f turf, firm) at Fair Grounds on Jan. 25, 2026 (by 1 1/4 lengths, Equibase Speed Figure ~105). Before: 2nd in the Pan Zareta S. (5f turf, firm) at FG on Jan. 3. Track conditions: Firm/good turf.
- Analysis: The rail draw is golden for this consistent front-runner. Foley has her razor-sharp, and Cannon’s local knowledge is a plus. Pedigree screams sprint speed, and her recent figures are among the best in the field. If she gets an easy lead, she’s very tough to catch on firm turf; a top contender at a square price.
2. Gavea (GER)
- Morning Line Odds: 8/1
- Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza, Jr. (16% wins; patient stalker)
- Trainer: Albert M. Stall, Jr. (20% wins; perennial Fair Grounds powerhouse)
- Breeding: Gleneagles (IRE) – Gavea (by Acclamation)
- Recent Finishes: Last: 3rd in allowance (5 1/2f turf, good) at FG on Feb. 1, 2026. Before: 1st in the 2025 Mardi Gras S. (5 1/2f turf, firm) at FG on Feb. 18, 2025 (defending champ). Track: Firm/good.
- Analysis: The defending champion returns with Stall’s magic touch. Pedroza can rate her perfectly from post 2. German-bred with a strong grass pedigree; she loves the course and handles any going. At 8/1, she’s live for a repeat if the pace sets up kindly—exotic must.
3. Twirl Around (KY)
- Morning Line Odds: 12/1
- Jockey: Mitchell Murrill (local ace, 19% wins)
- Trainer: Gregory D. Foley (see above; dual entry with #1)
- Breeding: Twirling Candy – Twirl (by Distorted Humor)
- Recent Finishes: Last: 4th in optional claiming (6f turf, firm) at FG on Jan. 31. Before: 2nd in allowance (5 1/2f turf, firm) at Delta Downs on Dec. 20, 2025. Track: Firm.
- Analysis: Foley’s second string is a consistent placer. Murrill knows every inch of the course; post 3 allows a ground-saving trip. Pedigree for the distance; value longshot if the favorites overbet.
4. Serving Time (GB)
- Morning Line Odds: 8/1
- Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (elite shipper, 25% wins)
- Trainer: Cherie DeVaux (hot barn, 21% wins)
- Breeding: Without Parole (GB) – Serving Time (by Elusive Quality)
- Recent Finishes: Last: 1st in allowance (5f turf, firm) at Gulfstream on Jan. 18, 2026 (by 2 lengths, figure ~102). Before: 3rd in the Giant’s Causeway S. (5 1/2f turf, firm) at Keeneland on Oct. 12, 2025. Track: Firm.
- Analysis: British-bred shipper with Ortiz aboard—a dangerous combo. DeVaux excels with Euro imports; post 4 is ideal for her mid-pack style. If she handles the trip, she’s a major threat on firm turf.
5. Civetta (KY)
- Morning Line Odds: 6/1
- Jockey: Ben Curtis (rising star, 17% wins)
- Trainer: Brendan P. Walsh (18% wins; sharp with turf fillies)
- Breeding: Into Mischief – Civetta (by Medaglia d’Oro)
- Recent Finishes: Last: 2nd in allowance (5 1/2f turf, firm) at FG on Feb. 8. Before: 1st in optional claiming (5f turf, firm) at Churchill on Nov. 29, 2025. Track: Firm.
- Analysis: Walsh has her peaking, and Curtis fits her stalking style. Post 5 is versatile; pedigree blends speed and class. Solid for the board if the rain stays away.
6. Shining Star (CHI)
- Morning Line Odds: 5/2
- Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz (top rider, 24% wins)
- Trainer: Brad H. Cox (meet leader, 26% wins)
- Breeding: Saraha Spirit – Shining Star (by Lookin At Lucky)
- Recent Finishes: Last: 1st in allowance (5 1/2f turf, firm) at FG on Jan. 25 (by 3 lengths, figure ~108). Before: 2nd in the Pan Zareta S. at FG on Jan. 3. Track: Firm.
- Analysis: The class dropper with Cox and Ortiz—a lethal combination. Chilean import has blossomed on U.S. grass; post 6 suits her closing kick. The one to beat on any surface.
7. Lotsandlotsofcandy (KY)
- Morning Line Odds: 2/1
- Jockey: Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. (local favorite, 20% wins)
- Trainer: Paul J. McGee (consistent 17% wins)
- Breeding: Twirling Candy – Lotsandlotsofcash (by Hard Spun)
- Recent Finishes: Last: 1st in optional claiming (6f dirt, fast) at FG on Feb. 1 (wire-to-wire). Before: 3rd in allowance (5 1/2f turf, firm) at FG on Jan. 11. Track: Fast dirt/firm turf.
- Analysis: The heavy favorite stretching back to turf after a dirt win. McGee’s barn is rolling, and Hernandez knows her perfectly. Post 7 is a bit wide but her speed can overcome it. Deserved favorite if she translates dirt form to grass.
8. Annie’s Joy (KY)
- Morning Line Odds: 50/1
- Jockey: James Graham (veteran, 14% wins)
- Trainer: Steve Bryant (longshot specialist, 9% wins)
- Breeding: Kitten’s Joy – Annie’s Joy (by Joyful Joy)
- Recent Finishes: Last: 6th in claiming (5f turf, good) at FG on Jan. 30. Before: 4th in allowance at Delta Downs. Track: Good/firm.
- Analysis: Deep closer at huge odds. Bryant can spring surprises; if the pace collapses, she could sneak into the super.
9. Party Pauline (KY)
- Morning Line Odds: 20/1
- Jockey: C.J. McMahon (local rider, 15% wins)
- Trainer: Chris A. Hartman (18% wins; Arkansas shipper)
- Breeding: Into Mischief – Party Pauline (by Distorted Humor)
- Recent Finishes: Last: 5th in optional claiming (5 1/2f turf, firm) at Oaklawn on Feb. 7. Before: 2nd at Remington (5f turf, firm) on Jan. 18. Track: Firm.
- Analysis: Ship-in with tactical speed. Hartman preps well for stakes; widest post requires a clean trip. Live longshot for exotics if she gets a soft pace.
