Horse Race Preview: Race 4 – Bill Thomas Memorial Stakes at Sunland Park

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Race Overview

The Bill Thomas Memorial Stakes is scheduled for Sunday, February 15, 2026, at Sunland Park Racetrack & Casino in Sunland Park, New Mexico. This venue, located just across the state line from El Paso, Texas, features a one-mile dirt oval and is known for its winter racing meet, attracting a mix of regional and national talent. The track is famous for hosting the Sunland Derby, a key Kentucky Derby prep, but this stakes serves as a supporting feature on the card.

The race is Race 4 on a 10-race program, with a scheduled post time of 1:45 PM MT (3:45 PM ET). It’s open to 4-year-olds and upward, contested over 6 1/2 furlongs on the dirt surface, with a purse of $100,000. This sprint stakes typically favors speed horses on Sunland’s dirt, which often plays fair but can reward early pace in shorter distances. All horses carry 124 lbs, and no major equipment changes are noted in the entries.

Expected weather conditions in Sunland Park on February 15, based on forecasts, include mostly cloudy skies with a high around 73°F and lows in the low 40s. Winds from the west at 8-9 mph, humidity around 22-30%, and minimal chance of precipitation (under 5%). The track should be fast and dry, with no significant impact from weather, though the mild winds could slightly favor inside speed.

The compact field of five includes multiple stakes winners, with trainers Justin Evans (three entrants) and Steve Asmussen bringing strong contenders. Speed is likely to be prominent, setting up for a tactical affair.

Field Analysis (By Post Position)

  1. Clovisconnection (CA)
    1. Post Position: 1
    1. Morning Line Odds: 5/2
    1. Jockey: Luis Negron (local specialist with a 20% win rate at Sunland; excels in front-running rides, strong from the rail with a 18% strike rate in sprints).
    1. Trainer: Justin R. Evans (leading trainer at Sunland with ~25% wins; dominates with California-bred imports and sprinters, multiple stakes winners this meet).
    1. Breeding: Vronsky – La Darling (by Perfect Mandate). Sire Vronsky brings stamina and class from California stakes, while the dam adds sprint speed and consistency.
    1. Recent Finishes: Consistent stakes performer. Last out: 1st in an optional claiming allowance at Pleasanton on 5/26/2025 (6f dirt, fast), Equibase Speed Figure (ESF) ~105. Before that: 1st in the Oak Tree Sprint Stakes at Alameda County Fair on 6/29/2025 (6f dirt, fast), ESF 111, winning by 2 1/4 lengths in 1:10.35. Earlier: Targeted higher-level stakes like the Longacres Mile, finishing competitively with ESFs in the 100-110 range. Track conditions: Primarily fast dirt, where he thrives.
    1. Analysis: The rail draw is ideal for his speed-oriented style, allowing him to break sharp and save ground. At 5/2, he’s respected for his recent form and barn’s hot streak. Pedigree suits the 6 1/2f distance, with enough stamina to hold off closers. If the track stays fast, he could wire the field; his high ESFs (up to 111) make him a threat. A logical contender, especially with Evans’ success at Sunland.
  2. Katonah (KY)
    1. Post Position: 2
    1. Morning Line Odds: 4/1
    1. Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez (top California rider shipping in, 22% win rate; tactical genius in sprints, excellent at rating horses).
    1. Trainer: Justin R. Evans (see above; has a proven track record with older geldings in stakes, often improving them dramatically).
    1. Breeding: Klimt – Ctimene (by Consolidator). Klimt imparts precocious speed and grit, with the dam adding route influence that helps at extended sprints.
    1. Recent Finishes: Strong closer. Last out: Implied strong performance in a graded stakes like the San Pasqual (details sparse, but known for last-to-first wins). Prior: Wins in allowance/optional claimers with ESFs around 100-105, including a blinkers-off victory where he rallied impressively. Earlier form includes graded placings on fast dirt. Track conditions: Fast dirt preferred, handles speed-favoring surfaces well.
    1. Analysis: Good inside post for stalking the pace. At 4/1, he offers value as Evans’ second string. His closing kick could exploit a duel up front, and pedigree provides versatility. Hernandez’s expertise is a plus in tactical races. If cloudy conditions keep the track firm, he moves up; a solid exotic play.
  3. Augusta Melody (KY)
    1. Post Position: 3
    1. Morning Line Odds: 3/1
    1. Jockey: Orlando Mojica (veteran with 15% wins at Midwest/Southwest tracks; aggressive style suits speed types, good in stakes).
    1. Trainer: Robertino Diodoro (high-percentage trainer ~20% wins; excels with claiming-to-stakes progressors, strong at Sunland).
    1. Breeding: Speightstown – Tar Heel Mom (by Flatter). Speightstown offers elite sprint speed (sire of multiple G1 winners), dam was a graded stakes performer adding durability.
    1. Recent Finishes: Veteran campaigner in top form. Last out: 1st in the Ft. Bliss Stakes at Sunland on 1/18/2026 (6f dirt, fast), ESF ~105, winning in 1:08.76 by a clear margin. Before that: Competitive in Preakness day allowance at Pimlico on 5/17/2025 (6f dirt, fast), finishing in the money with time of 1:10.39. Earlier: Win at Keeneland on speed-friendly track, bobbling start but recovering for victory. Track conditions: Fast dirt, where he’s dominant.
    1. Analysis: Mid-pack draw allows options to press or stalk. At 3/1, he’s a contender off his recent Sunland win, showing he loves the surface. Pedigree screams sprint class, and at 9 years old, he’s still sharp with ESFs over 100. Diodoro’s prep work is reliable; light winds favor his speed. A major player if pace sets up kindly.
  4. Ryvit (KY)
    1. Post Position: 4
    1. Morning Line Odds: 9/5
    1. Jockey: Keith J. Asmussen (up-and-coming rider, son of trainer Steve, 16% wins; strong finisher in sprints).
    1. Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (Hall of Fame trainer with 25%+ wins; dominates stakes nationwide, multiple winners at this distance).
    1. Breeding: Competitive Edge – She Is Bedazzling (by Medaglia d’Oro). Competitive Edge brings sharp early speed, dam adds gold-standard class and stamina.
    1. Recent Finishes: Classy performer. Last out: Strong in allowance at Oaklawn (details imply closing well despite no pace, ESF ~105). Prior: 1st in the Whitmore Stakes on 3/12/2025 (6f dirt, fast), ESF 112, highest in field. Earlier: Competitive against top speed in stakes like those with Skelly, closing for placings with ESFs 100-110. Track conditions: Fast dirt, excels when pace collapses.
    1. Analysis: Outside the inside speed, perfect for a stalking trip. As the 9/5 favorite, he’s the one to beat with superior recent figures (up to 112 ESF). Asmussen’s barn fires in these spots, and pedigree fits ideally. If the mostly cloudy weather keeps things dry, his closing punch shines. Top selection.
  5. Neiman (KY)
    1. Post Position: 5
    1. Morning Line Odds: 4/1
    1. Jockey: Luis A. Valenzuela (reliable Southwest rider, 14% wins; good with closers from outside posts).
    1. Trainer: Justin R. Evans (see above; versatile with his string, often springs value in stakes).
    1. Breeding: Munnings – Tizacity (by Tizway). Munnings provides consistent speed and turf/dirt versatility, dam adds tactical edge for sprints.
    1. Recent Finishes: Improving type. Last out: Competitive in allowance/stakes (speed analysis shows even pace, sections 40.75-38.61-34.68). Prior: Placings in optional claimers with ESFs ~95-100, showing progress. Earlier: Solid efforts in mid-level races, handling fast tracks well. Track conditions: Fast dirt, even-paced runner.
    1. Analysis: Widest draw requires a rally, but Valenzuela can navigate. At 4/1, he’s live as Evans’ third entrant, with upside. Pedigree suggests he handles 6 1/2f, and recent form indicates peaking. If frontrunners tire, he closes; mild conditions suit. Exotic contender.