The Martha Washington Stakes is a significant early-season points race on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks, offering 20-10-6-4-2 points to the top five finishers. This $300,000 event for 3-year-old fillies covers 1 1/16 miles on dirt and features a compact field of eight contenders. Originally set for January 31, the race was rescheduled due to winter weather cancellations at Oaklawn. Expect a pace scenario with early speed from inside posts and potential closers from wider draws on a fair track. Morning-line favorite Hit Parade brings graded form, but value lies in proven stakes performers like Counting Stars and Grace Is Free.
Venue Location
Oaklawn Park
2705 Central Ave
Hot Springs, AR 71901 Established in 1904, this iconic dirt oval hosts a winter-spring meet with a capacity of about 20,000. The track favors tactical speed in routes like this.
Post time is scheduled for 2:59 PM CT (3:59 PM ET / 12:59 PM PT) First post is at 12:30 PM CT, with races approximately every 30 minutes. The card includes nine races, with this being the featured event.
Expected Weather Conditions
Sunny skies with a high of 68°F and a low of 39°F. Winds light at 3-6 mph from the west, humidity around 62%, and no precipitation (0 inches). Mild conditions should promote fast times without impacting the surface.
Track Conditions
Expected fast dirt. Oaklawn resumed racing on February 5 after weather-related cancellations from January 30-February 1. With dry, sunny weather forecasted, the track should play evenly, without significant bias toward speed or closers.
Betting Odds
| Post | Horse | M/L Odds |
| 1 | Knickleandime | 8/1 |
| 2 | Maximum Offer | 10/1 |
| 3 | Search Party | 3/1 |
| 4 | Spitfire | 15/1 |
| 5 | Counting Stars | 5/2 |
| 6 | Hit Parade | 2/1 |
| 7 | Newtown Pike | 15/1 |
| 8 | Grace Is Free | 15/1 |
Analysis of Each Horse, Jockey, and Trainer
Field of eight 3-year-old fillies on dirt at 1 1/16 miles. Weights are 117-122 lbs, with allowances for stakes winners. Below is a detailed breakdown, including starting position (post), recent finishes (last 3-5 races where available, with date/track/finish/field/distance/surface/speed figure/comments), and analysis. Data draws from 2025-2026 performances.
1. Knickleandime (KY, 3yo Filly, Knicks Go – She’s Trouble)
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano (117 lbs) – Veteran with 23% win rate; strong at Oaklawn routes.
Trainer: Randy L. Morse – 15% win rate; excels with improving sophomores.
Recent Finishes: Nov 28, 2025 Churchill Downs (allowance), 1st/8, 1m dirt, speed fig 99, “impressive win by 2 1/4 lengths.” Career: 5 starts, 2-1-1.
Analysis: Rail draw suits her tactical speed. Ships in after a sharp Churchill win; Morse’s horses often improve second off the layoff. Contender if she handles the stretch-out, but faces class test at 8/1.
2. Maximum Offer (KY, 3yo Filly, Maxfield – No Better Terms)
Jockey: Emmanuel Esquivel (117 lbs) – 16% win rate; patient style fits closers.
Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek – 18% win rate; multiple stakes entries here.
Recent Finishes: Limited details; recent allowance efforts show consistency. Career: 4 starts, 1-1-1.
Analysis: McPeek trainee with upside; post 2 allows stalking trip. Lightly raced but needs to prove stamina at route. Value at 10/1 for exotics if pace sets up.
3. Search Party (KY, 3yo Filly, Gun Runner – Devious Charm)
Jockey: Cristian A. Torres (117 lbs) – 22% win rate; aggressive on frontrunners.
Trainer: Mark E. Casse – 20% win rate; strong with juveniles turning 3.
Recent Finishes: Recent workouts sharp; maiden win in fall 2025. Career: 3 starts, 1-0-1.
Analysis: Gun Runner filly with pedigree for distance; Casse’s dual entry adds confidence. Post 3 ideal for mid-pack run. Live at 3/1 if she builds on debut form.
4. Spitfire (KY, 3yo Filly, McKinzie – Freud’s Irish Miss)
Jockey: Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. (117 lbs) – 20% win rate; tactical expert.
Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek – See above; Oaklawn specialist.
Recent Finishes: Dec 2025 allowance, 4th/8, 1m dirt, speed fig 84, “even effort.” Career: 4 starts, 1-0-0.
Analysis: McPeek’s other entry; post 4 suits pressing style. Improving but longshot at 15/1; needs career-best to factor.
5. Counting Stars (KY, 3yo Filly, Honor A. P. – Paynterbynumbers)
Jockey: Francisco Arrieta (122 lbs) – 20% win rate; strong finisher.
Trainer: Mark E. Casse – See above; hot with stakes fillies.
Recent Finishes: Jan 2026 Oaklawn stakes, 1st/7, 1m dirt, “stakes double.” Career: 5 starts, 3-1-0.
Analysis: Recent back-to-back stakes wins at Oaklawn; carries top weight but post 5 allows clear trip. Second choice at 5/2; major player.
6. Hit Parade (KY, 3yo Filly, Street Sense – Wedding Band)
Jockey: Luis Saez (122 lbs) – 28% win rate; elite in big races.
Trainer: Brad H. Cox – 25% win rate; bypassing easier spot for this.
Recent Finishes: Dec 2025 Fair Grounds (Untapable S.), 1st/8, 1m dirt, speed fig 97, “dominant win.” Career: 4 starts, 2-1-1.
Analysis: Favorite at 2/1; Cox ships confidently after graded score. Post 6 fine for stalking; top contender on class.
7. Newtown Pike (KY, 3yo Filly, McKinzie – Newellton)
Jockey: Abel Cedillo (117 lbs) – 18% win rate; underrated in routes.
Trainer: Lindsay Schultz – 17% win rate; emerging talent.
Recent Finishes: Fall 2025 allowance, 2nd/7, 1m dirt, speed fig 90. Career: 3 starts, 1-1-0.
Analysis: McKinzie filly with speed; post 7 may force wide ground. Longshot at 15/1 but could clunk up for minors.
8. Grace Is Free (KY, 3yo Filly, American Freedom – Vivian’s Grace)
Jockey: Kelsi Harr (122 lbs) – 15% win rate; knows the horse well.
Trainer: Robert N. Cline – 14% win rate; local with upset potential.
Recent Finishes: Jan 4, 2026 Oaklawn (Mockingbird S.), 1st/8, 6f dirt, speed fig 115, “breakthrough stakes win by 1 length.” Dec 14, 2025 Oaklawn (Astral Spa S.), 4th/8, 6f dirt, 70. Aug 17, 2025 Canterbury (MSW), 1st/6, 5.5f dirt, 73. Career: 5 starts, 3-0-0.
Analysis: Recent Mockingbird winner at Oaklawn; stretching out but post 8 suits closing style. Upset chance at 15/1 if pace collapses.
