The Oklahoma City Thunder (38-11) face the Denver Nuggets (33-16) in a pivotal Western Conference showdown between the top two teams. With both squads dealing with injuries to key contributors, this matchup at Ball Arena could come down to star performances from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić. The Thunder aim to rebound from a recent loss, while the Nuggets look to extend their home winning streak. Broadcast nationally on NBC/Peacock.
Venue Location
Ball Arena
Denver, CO
Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET
Recent Team Forms
Both teams have been strong lately, but injuries have impacted consistency.
Oklahoma City Thunder (7-3 in last 10 games, lost 1 of last 2):
The Thunder average 119.2 PPG in their last 10, allowing 112.5 PPG (positive margin of +6.7). They’ve shot 48.5% from the field with elite defense. Recent results:
Jan 29: L 111-123 @ MIN (45.2% FG, 14 TO)
Jan 27: W 104-95 vs NOP (47.8% FG, 11 TO)
Jan 25: L 101-103 vs TOR (44.4% FG, 15 TO)
Jan 23: L 114-117 vs IND (43.3% FG, 17 TO)
Jan 21: W 105-104 vs LAC
Overall, OKC ranks 1st in PPG (120.3) and 1st in opponent PPG (108.0), with 2nd in RPG (43.6).
Denver Nuggets (7-3 in last 10 games, on 2-game win streak):
The Nuggets average 113.4 PPG in their last 10, allowing 108.9 PPG (positive margin of +4.5). They’ve shot 47.2% from the field with strong rebounding. Recent results:
Jan 30: W 122-109 vs LAC (54.8% FG, 13 TO)
Jan 29: W 107-103 vs BKN (47.5% FG, 7 TO)
Jan 27: L 107-109 vs DET (47.6% FG, 15 TO)
Jan 23: W 102-100 @ MIL (40.2% FG, 8 TO)
Jan 21: W 107-97 @ WAS
Overall, Denver ranks 2nd in PPG (120.1) and 14th in opponent PPG (115.6), with 24th in RPG (42.5).
Injury Report
Oklahoma City Thunder:
Alex Caruso (G): Out – Right Adductor Strain
Ajay Mitchell (G): Out – Abdominal Strain
Jalen Williams (G/F): Out – Right Hamstring Strain
Nikola Topić (G): Out – Left ACL Tear
Denver Nuggets:
Tamar Bates (G): Out – Left Foot Surgery
Christian Braun (G): Doubtful – Left Ankle Sprain
Aaron Gordon (F): Out – Right Hamstring Strain
Cameron Johnson (F): Out – Right Knee Bone Bruise
Nikola Jokić (C): Probable – Left Knee Bone Bruise
Key
Player Matchups
Injuries force both teams to rely on stars and depth. OKC’s perimeter speed could exploit Denver’s weakened wings, but Jokić’s dominance inside is a mismatch.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) vs. Jamal Murray (DEN): Gilgeous-Alexander (32.0 PPG, 6.2 APG, 1.3 SPG) is an MVP frontrunner with elite scoring; Murray (25.9 PPG, 7.4 APG) must contain him while providing offense.
Chet Holmgren (OKC) vs. Nikola Jokić (DEN): Holmgren (17.8 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 2.0 BPG) brings length and blocks; Jokić (29.7 PPG, 12.2 RPG, 10.8 APG) is a triple-double machine who could overwhelm the sophomore.
Luguentz Dort (OKC) vs. Peyton Watson (DEN): Dort (defensive specialist, 8.7 PPG) locks down wings; Watson (14.7 PPG, 1.1 BPG) provides scoring and blocks.
Aaron Wiggins (OKC) vs. Dillon Brooks (DEN): Wiggins (10.5 PPG) steps up with injuries; Brooks (defensive anchor) could disrupt OKC’s flow.
Denver’s bench (O’Neale, Gillespie) has an edge if Braun plays, but OKC’s depth (Wiggins, Hartenstein) is tested.
Series History
The Thunder hold a 107-96 all-time edge over the Nuggets (including variants). In recent matchups, OKC averages 116.5 PPG while Denver scores 114.0 PPG.
Recent games:
Nov 8, 2025: Nuggets 114-103 Thunder (DEN won on road)
Nov 6, 2025: Nuggets 115-102 Thunder (DEN won at home)
Oct 24, 2025: Thunder 102-87 Nuggets (OKC won at DEN)
Mar 4, 2025: Nuggets 119-117 Thunder (DEN won at home)
Jan 27, 2025: Nuggets 111-109 Thunder (DEN won at home)
Denver has won 4 of the last 5.
Betting Trends
OKC is 23-26 ATS this season (11-12 ATS on road), while Denver is 29-20 ATS (14-9 ATS at home). The Thunder’s games hit the over 53.1% of the time (26/49), and combined, these teams average 240.4 PPG (exceeding the total by 13.9). However, with injuries, recent unders trend—Thunder 5-5 O/U last 10; Nuggets 6-4 O/U last 10. OKC is 6-5 in last 11 head-to-head; Nuggets 7-4 ATS vs. Thunder.
Game Odds
Oklahoma City Thunder – 7.5
Denver Nuggets 222.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, January 31, 2026
