The Holy Bull Stakes is a prestigious $275,000 Grade 3 race for three-year-olds, run over 1 1/16 miles on dirt. Named after the Hall of Fame horse who won the 1994 Florida Derby and Travers Stakes, this event serves as a key early prep on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, awarding 20-10-6-4-2 qualifying points to the top five finishers. With a field of nine (originally 10 but one scratch reported due to weather preparations), the race promises a tactical battle on Gulfstream’s dirt oval, where speed and stamina are essential. The field features a mix of lightly raced prospects, graded stakes winners, and shippers, with several making their two-turn debut. Expect a moderate-to-hot pace set by inside speed, potentially favoring stalkers if the rail plays fair. Track bias favors mid-pack runners in routes, but recent cards have shown even play for closers with clean trips.
Venue Location
Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Florida, United States. This iconic Thoroughbred racetrack, opened in 1939, features a 1 1/8-mile dirt oval and a 1-mile turf course, renowned for its winter meet and major stakes like the Pegasus World Cup. The facility includes a casino, shopping, and dining, making it a full entertainment destination.
Post time is scheduled for 5:45 PM ET (2:45 PM PT / 10:45 PM GMT). The full card begins at 12:20 PM ET, with races spaced approximately 32-35 minutes apart. The Holy Bull Stakes is the finale of a stakes-heavy day including the Swale Stakes (Race 8) and Forward Gal Stakes (Race 10).
Expected Weather Conditions
Hallandale Beach is forecasted for partly cloudy, mild conditions on race day with a high of 75°F (24°C) and a low of 64°F (18°C). Winds from the east at 11 mph, 0% chance of precipitation, and 35% cloud cover. Humidity around 70%. These conditions should yield a fast dirt track (good to fast rating), favoring speed horses, though the light wind may slightly affect front-runners on the backstretch. No major impact on track conditions expected, but monitor for any morning humidity affecting early races.
Track Conditions
Gulfstream’s dirt track is expected to be fast based on the dry forecast. The rail is at 0 feet, which typically favors inside speed and rail runners in routes. Recent cards have shown even play with no strong bias, but stamina has been key in two-turn races like the 1 1/16m Holy Bull. Post position bias: Inner posts (1-4) have won 55% of similar routes, benefiting front-runners and stalkers with ground-saving trips. If any unexpected moisture persists, it could soften to good, favoring closers, but conditions should be ideal for speed.
Analysis of Each Horse, Jockey, and Trainer
The field of nine three-year-olds (one scratch reported due to weather preparations) features a mix of dirt specialists and turf crossovers. Post positions, horses, jockeys, trainers, and analysis below, including starting position, recent finishes, and key notes. Recent finishes are listed as (date – race type – finish position / field size – margin – track/surface).
Post Position 1: Incredibolt (KY)
Jockey: Jaime A. Torres (up-and-coming rider with 15% win rate; good on closers).
Trainer: Riley Mott (son of Bill Mott; emerging with 18% win rate in stakes; focuses on patient development).
Analysis: G3 Street Sense winner; deep closer who earned a strong speed figure last out. Recent finishes: 11/28/25 – Street Sense Stakes (CD Dirt) – 1st/7 by 1 length; 10/15/25 – Allowance (CD Dirt) – 2nd/8 by neck. Rail draw challenges his closing style, but Torres can save ground; prefers fast track. Rating: 8/10 (contender if pace melts).
Post Position 2: Roger That Dana (KY)
Jockey: Renzo Rojas Pinzon (experienced with 12% win rate; solid on longshots).
Trainer: Luis M. Ramirez (Florida-based with 14% win rate; value horses).
Analysis: Added experience from 2nd in Mucho Macho Man; consistent stalker. Recent finishes: 12/10/25 – Mucho Macho Man Stakes (GP Dirt) – 2nd/8 by 1.5 lengths; 11/05/25 – Allowance (GP Dirt) – 1st/7 by neck. Mid-pack type; Pinzon’s positioning helps. Rating: 6/10 (upset potential).
Post Position 3: Project Ace (KY)
Jockey: Corey J. Lanerie (veteran with 15% win rate; good on Kentucky shippers).
Trainer: Dale L. Romans (stakes veteran with 16% win rate; Churchill specialist).
Analysis: Churchill maiden winner; Romans dangerous with prices. Recent finishes: 12/05/25 – MSW (CD Dirt) – 1st/9 by 2 lengths; 11/10/25 – MSW (CD Dirt) – 3rd/10 by 1 length. Stamina for route; Lanerie saves ground. Rating: 7/10.
Post Position 4: Global Aviator (KY)
Jockey: Joe Bravo (veteran with 17% win rate; “Jersey Joe” excels on turf-to-dirt).
Trainer: Rohan Crichton (Florida-based with 15% win rate; “wiseguy” horses).
Analysis: The “wiseguy” horse; earned 85 Beyer in debut win. Recent finishes: 12/15/25 – MSW (GP Dirt) – 1st/8 by 3 lengths; debut. Speedy type; Bravo pushes pace. Rating: 8/10.
Post Position 5: Cannoneer (KY)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (leading rider with 28% win rate; stakes specialist).
Trainer: Brad H. Cox (multiple Eclipse winner with 25% win rate; 3yo expert).
Analysis: Morning line favorite; 100 Brisnet Speed Fig breaking maiden. Recent finishes: 12/20/25 – MSW (CD Dirt) – 1st/8 by 4 lengths; debut. Mid-pack stalker; Ortiz’s rail-riding key. Rating: 9/10 (top contender).
Post Position 6: Buetane (KY)
Jockey: Joel Rosario (Hall of Famer with 20% win rate; strong on Baffert shippers).
Trainer: Bob Baffert (Hall of Famer with 30% win rate in stakes; cross-entered but committed).
Analysis: Cross-entered in Southwest but staying; G1 Hopeful runner-up. Recent finishes: 09/02/25 – Hopeful Stakes (SAR Dirt) – 2nd/8 by 1 length; 07/20/25 – Allowance (SAR Dirt) – 1st/7 by 2 lengths. Adds early pressure; Rosario’s timing ideal. Rating: 8/10.
Post Position 7: Nearly (KY)
Jockey: John R. Velazquez (Hall of Famer with 22% win rate; excels on Pletcher speed).
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher (Hall of Fame with 28% win rate; 3yo master).
Analysis: Won last two by 14+ lengths; speed of the race. Recent finishes: 12/10/25 – Allowance (AQU Dirt) – 1st/6 by 7 lengths; 11/15/25 – MSW (AQU Dirt) – 1st/8 by 7 lengths. Front-runner; Velazquez sends early. Rating: 9/10 (co-favorite).
Post Position 8: Bravaro (NY)
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione (Gulfstream leader with 24% win rate; versatile).
Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. (Gulfstream specialist with 22% win rate; 28% at meet).
Analysis: Undefeated NY-Bred (2-for-2); Joseph hot. Recent finishes: 12/05/25 – MSW (AQU Dirt) – 1st/8 by 3 lengths; 11/10/25 – MSW (AQU Dirt) – 1st/9 by 2 lengths. Stalker; Gaffalione rallies. Rating: 8/10.
Post Position 9: Game for It (KY)
Jockey: Junior Alvarado (veteran with 15% win rate; good on shippers).
Trainer: Chad Summers (New York-based with 14% win rate).
Analysis: Aqueduct maiden winner shipping in. Recent finishes: 12/15/25 – MSW (AQU Dirt) – 1st/8 by 2 lengths; 11/20/25 – MSW (AQU Dirt) – 4th/10 by 3 lengths. Closer; wide post favors rally. Rating: 6/10.
Track Conditions
Gulfstream’s dirt track is expected to be fast based on the sunny forecast. The rail is at 0 feet, which typically favors inside speed and rail runners in routes. Recent cards have shown even play with no strong bias, but stamina has been key in two-turn races like the 1 1/16m Holy Bull. Post position bias: Inner posts (1-5) have won 60% of similar routes, benefiting front-runners and stalkers with ground-saving trips. If any unexpected moisture from morning dew persists, it could soften to good, favoring closers, but conditions should be ideal for speed.
