The Swale Stakes is a prestigious $150,000 Grade 3 race for three-year-olds, run over 7 furlongs on dirt. Named after the 1984 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner, this event serves as an early-season sprint prep for the Florida Derby trail and often highlights speed-oriented Dirt Classic contenders. With a field of eight, the race promises a fast pace on Gulfstream’s speed-favoring dirt oval, where rail speed and tactical positioning are crucial. The field includes a mix of lightly raced prospects and more seasoned runners, with several making their stakes debut. Expect a wire-to-wire battle if the pace is hot, or a closer’s rally if it collapses late. Track bias favors speed on the rail (set at 0 feet), but recent cards have shown fair play for stalkers.
Venue Location
Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Florida, United States. This iconic Thoroughbred racetrack, opened in 1939, features a 1 1/8-mile dirt oval and a 1-mile turf course, renowned for its winter meet and major stakes like the Pegasus World Cup. The facility includes a casino, shopping, and dining, making it a full entertainment destination.
Post time is scheduled for 3:56 PM ET (12:56 PM PT / 8:56 PM GMT). The full card begins at 12:20 PM ET, with races spaced approximately 32-35 minutes apart. The Swale Stakes is part of a stakes-heavy day including the Holy Bull (Race 12) and Kitten’s Joy (Race 5).
Expected Weather Conditions
Hallandale Beach is forecasted for sunny, mild conditions on race day with a high of 79°F (26°C) and a low of 50°F (10°C). Winds from the east at 7-11 mph, 0% chance of precipitation, and 51% humidity. These conditions should yield a fast dirt track (good to fast rating), favoring speed horses, though the light wind may slightly affect front-runners on the turns. No major impact on track conditions expected, but monitor for any morning dew affecting early races.
Track Conditions
Gulfstream’s dirt track is expected to be fast based on the dry forecast. The rail is at 0 feet, which typically favors inside speed and rail runners. Recent cards have shown even play with no strong bias, but speed has held up in shorter sprints like the 7f Swale. If any unexpected moisture from morning dew persists, it could favor closers, but conditions should be ideal for front-runners.
Analysis of Each Horse, Jockey, and Trainer
The field of eight three-year-olds includes a mix of dirt specialists and turf crossovers. Post positions, horses, jockeys, trainers, and analysis below, including starting position, recent finishes, and key notes. Recent finishes are listed as (date – race type – finish position / field size – margin – track/surface).
Post Position 1: Bold Swagger (KY)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (leading Gulfstream rider with 28% win rate in 2025 stakes; excels on speed horses).
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (Hall of Fame trainer with 25% win rate in Gulfstream stakes; masters 3yo development).
Analysis: Bold Reason colt with inside speed; wired a maiden field last out. Recent finishes: 12/15/25 – MSW (GP Dirt) – 1st/8 by 3 lengths; 11/20/25 – MSW (GP Dirt) – 2nd/10 by neck. Rail draw perfect for his front-running style; Ortiz’s gate work helps. Could set pace and hold if unchallenged. Rating: 8/10.
Post Position 2: Mystic Moon (KY)
Jockey: John R. Velazquez (Hall of Famer with 20% win rate in Gulfstream stakes; strong on closers).
Trainer: Chad Brown (turf expert but 18% win rate on dirt; focuses on route development).
Analysis: Moonshine Mullin son switching from turf; stretched out well last out. Recent finishes: 12/10/25 – Allowance (AQU Turf) – 2nd/7 by head; 11/05/25 – MSW (AQU Dirt) – 1st/9 by 2 lengths. Stalker with late kick; Velazquez’s timing ideal. Rating: 7/10.
Post Position 3: Rebel Yell (FL)
Jockey: Javier Castellano (veteran with 16% win rate; good on Florida-breds).
Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. (Gulfstream specialist with 22% win rate; excels with locals).
Analysis: Florida-bred Rebel Dane with dirt pedigree; broke maiden impressively. Recent finishes: 12/22/25 – MSW (GP Dirt) – 1st/8 by 4 lengths; 11/18/25 – MSW (GP Dirt) – 3rd/10 by 1.5 lengths. Presser with stamina; Castellano saves ground. Rating: 8/10.
Post Position 4: Thunder Bay (KY)
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione (Gulfstream leader with 24% win rate; versatile).
Trainer: Dale L. Romans (Kentucky-based with 15% win rate; stakes veteran).
Analysis: Thunder Snow colt with route form. Recent finishes: 12/05/25 – Allowance (CD Dirt) – 1st/7 by 1 length; 11/10/25 – MSW (CD Dirt) – 2nd/8 by neck. Mid-pack type; Gaffalione’s positioning key. Rating: 7/10.
Post Position 5: Golden Glory (KY)
Jockey: Luis Saez (aggressive rider with 19% win rate; strong on speed).
Trainer: Michael J. Maker (high-volume trainer with 17% win rate; turf-to-dirt switches).
Analysis: Goldencents son debuting on dirt. Recent finishes: 12/18/25 – MSW (GP Turf) – 1st/9 by 2 lengths; 11/25/25 – MSW (GP Turf) – 4th/10 by 3 lengths. Speedy; Saez pushes pace. Rating: 6/10 (unknown dirt).
Post Position 6: Knight Rider (KY)
Jockey: Edgard J. Zayas (Gulfstream specialist with 18% win rate).
Trainer: Carlos F. Martin (New York-based with 14% win rate).
Analysis: Knight of Thunder with balanced form. Recent finishes: 12/20/25 – Allowance (AQU Dirt) – 2nd/6 by 1 length; 11/15/25 – MSW (AQU Dirt) – 1st/8 by 2 lengths. Consistent stalker; Zayas saves ground. Rating: 7/10.
Post Position 7: Storm Surge (KY)
Jockey: Jose Alvarado (Florida specialist with 14% win rate).
Trainer: Patrick L. Biancone (French trainer with 16% win rate).
Analysis: Storm Cat descendant with late kick. Recent finishes: 12/12/25 – MSW (CD Dirt) – 1st/8 by 2 lengths; 11/08/25 – MSW (CD Dirt) – 3rd/9 by 1.5 lengths. Closer; wide post favors rally. Rating: 6/10.
Post Position 8: Victory Lap (FL)
Jockey: Corey J. Lanerie (veteran with 15% win rate).
Trainer: Jeff Engler (Midwest-based with 13% win rate).
Analysis: Florida-bred Victory Cat with speed. Recent finishes: 12/22/25 – Allowance (GP Dirt) – 3rd/7 by 2 lengths; 11/18/25 – MSW (GP Dirt) – 1st/10 by 1 length. Pace presser; wide post could hurt. Rating: 5/10.
Track Conditions
Gulfstream’s dirt track is expected to be fast based on the sunny forecast. The rail is at 0 feet, which typically favors inside speed and rail runners. Recent cards have shown even play with no strong bias, but speed has held up in shorter sprints like the 7f Swale. If any unexpected moisture from morning dew persists, it could favor closers, but conditions should be ideal for front-runners.
