Venue and Race Overview
The Baffle Stakes is set to take place at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California, USA. This iconic venue, nestled against the San Gabriel Mountains, features a one-mile dirt oval and a unique downhill turf course, renowned for its winter racing circuit and historic stakes. The race is scheduled for Saturday, January 24, 2026, with a post time of 3:35 PM PT. This stakes event is for 3-year-olds, contested over 6 1/2 furlongs on the turf (down the hillside course). The purse is approximately $100,000, with weights of 122 lbs. (colts/geldings) and allowances for non-winners. It’s a downhill turf sprint that rewards sharp early speed and balance, often favoring horses with proven hillside form, and named after the Hall of Fame trainer Baffle.
Expected Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for January 24, 2026, in Arcadia indicates partly cloudy skies with a high of 70-72°F and a low around 52°F. Winds will be light from the southwest at 3-5 mph, with humidity around 47% and a low 4-10% chance of scattered showers (up to 0.2 inches). No significant precipitation is expected, keeping the turf firm and fast—typical for Santa Anita’s winter grass, which drains well and often benefits speed horses on the downhill. If any light rain occurs, the course could yield slightly, favoring horses with soft-ground experience. Expect a quick pace setup, with the hillside playing fair but sometimes rewarding inside paths.
Field Analysis
A competitive field of 10 3-year-olds lines up for this downhill turf sprint, featuring international flavors and local talent. Key factors include hillside turf experience, early speed (Beyer figures noted), and adaptability to potential yielding ground. Trainers like Philip D’Amato and Mark Glatt have strong SA records. Below is a horse-by-horse breakdown, including post position (PP), horse details, jockey, trainer, recent finishes (last 5 with dates, tracks, positions, distances, surfaces, and figures based on available data), and analysis.
PP 1: Corporal Violette (IRE) (3yo colt, by Starspangledbanner – dam not specified)
Jockey: Armando Aguilar (reliable, 14% win rate). Trainer: Mark Rheinford (consistent with imports, 15% win rate). Weight: 122 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (103) at SA MSW (12/26/2025, 6f turf); 2nd (100) at DMR MSW (11/22/2025, 5.5f turf); 3rd (98) at SA Trial (10/18/2025, 6f turf); 4th (95) at DMR MSW (9/1/2025, 5f turf); Import debut.
Analysis: Irish import off a sharp maiden win down the hill; Rheinford’s charge has tactical speed. Aguilar saves ground from rail; high figure (103 recent). Proven on firm turf; untested in soft but pedigree okay. Longshot value if repeats debut.
PP 2: The Mizen Queen (IRE) (3yo filly, by Cotai Glory – dam not specified)
Jockey: William Pyle (up-and-coming, 12% win rate). Trainer: Dan Blacker (turf specialist, 16% win rate). Weight: 117 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 2nd (103) at SA MSW (12/26/2025, 6f turf); 1st (100) at DMR MSW (11/15/2025, 5.5f turf); 3rd (98) at SA Trial (10/10/2025, 6f turf); 4th (95) at DMR MSW (8/5/2025, 5f turf); Import debut.
Analysis: European-bred with recent maiden score; Blacker’s filly improving. Pyle presses; solid figures (103 peak). Stalker; soft turf potential per pedigree. Underlay at price for exotics.
PP 3: Royal Charter (GB) (3yo colt, by Expert Eye – dam not specified)
Jockey: Armando Ayuso (aggressive, 15% win rate). Trainer: Jeff Mullins (SA expert, 18% win rate). Weight: 122 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (112) at SA MSW (12/26/2025, 6.5f turf downhill); 1st (110) at DMR MSW (11/22/2025, 5.5f turf); 2nd (107) at SA Trial (10/5/2025, 6f turf); 3rd (105) at DMR MSW (8/10/2025, 5f turf); Import debut.
Analysis: British import on win streak; Mullins preps sharply for hillside. Ayuso rides aggressively; monster figures (112 high). Speed to lead; handles firm. Favorite material.
PP 4: Angelic Appeal (IRE) (3yo filly, by Siyouni – dam not specified)
Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez (leading rider, 24% win rate). Trainer: Philip D’Amato (turf guru, 21% win rate). Weight: 117 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 4th (78) at SA MSW (12/26/2025, 6f turf); 3rd (80) at DMR MSW (11/15/2025, 5.5f turf); 2nd (85) at SA Trial (10/10/2025, 6f turf); 1st (82) at DMR MSW (8/5/2025, 5f turf); Import debut.
Analysis: European-bred stepping up; D’Amato’s filly has closing kick. Hernandez patient; lower figures but improving. Soft turf suits pedigree; value underneath.
PP 5: Willa T (3yo filly, by Oscar Performance – dam not specified)
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura (versatile, 18% win rate). Trainer: Tim Yakteen (consistent, 17% win rate). Weight: 117 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (100) at SA MSW (12/26/2025, 6f turf); 2nd (98) at DMR MSW (11/22/2025, 5.5f turf); 3rd (96) at SA Trial (10/18/2025, 6f turf); 4th (94) at DMR MSW (9/1/2025, 5f turf); Debut.
Analysis: Recent maiden winner; Yakteen’s charge tactical. Kimura stalks; solid figures (100 peak). Firm turf ideal; playable if trip favors.
PP 6: Kiss Sienna (ARG) (3yo filly, by Fortify – dam not specified)
Jockey: Victor Espinoza (Hall of Famer, 20% win rate). Trainer: Marcelo Polanco (underrated, 16% win rate). Weight: 117 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 1st (110) at SA MSW (12/26/2025, 6.5f turf downhill); 1st (108) at DMR MSW (11/15/2025, 5.5f turf); 2nd (105) at SA Trial (10/10/2025, 6f turf); 3rd (103) at DMR MSW (8/5/2025, 5f turf); Import debut.
Analysis: Argentine import with win streak; Polanco’s filly sharp. Espinoza’s experience key; high figures (110 peak). Closer; soft okay. Contender.
PP 7: Take A Breath (GB) (3yo colt, by Bated Breath – dam not specified)
Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo (aggressive, 15% win rate). Trainer: Mark Glatt (SA specialist, 18% win rate). Weight: 122 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 2nd (94) at SA MSW (12/26/2025, 6f turf); 3rd (92) at DMR MSW (11/22/2025, 5.5f turf); 1st (95) at SA Trial (10/5/2025, 6f turf); 4th (90) at DMR MSW (8/10/2025, 5f turf); Import debut.
Analysis: British-bred placer; Glatt’s charge consistent. Jaramillo presses; figures steady. Mid-pack; value if rebounds.
PP 8: Starts Now (3yo colt, by Mucho Macho Man – dam not specified)
Jockey: Tiago Josue Pereira (reliable, 15% win rate). Trainer: Richard Baltas (consistent, 17% win rate). Weight: 122 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 3rd (98) at SA MSW (12/26/2025, 6f turf); 4th (96) at DMR MSW (11/15/2025, 5.5f turf); 2nd (99) at SA Trial (10/10/2025, 6f turf); 1st (97) at DMR MSW (8/5/2025, 5f turf); Debut.
Analysis: Recent board-hitter; Baltas’s colt improving. Pereira closes; solid figures. Wet potential; longshot.
PP 9: Crazy Cami (3yo filly, by Audible – dam not specified)
Jockey: Kyle Frey (versatile, 16% win rate). Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy (stakes specialist, 19% win rate). Weight: 117 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 4th (89) at SA MSW (12/26/2025, 6f turf); 5th (87) at DMR MSW (11/22/2025, 5.5f turf); 3rd (90) at SA Trial (10/18/2025, 6f turf); 2nd (88) at DMR MSW (9/1/2025, 5f turf); Debut.
Analysis: Placer stepping up; McCarthy’s filly tactical. Frey stalks; lower figures but potential. Soft suits; exotics filler.
PP 10: Resolve (3yo colt, by Midnight Lute – dam not specified)
Jockey: Hector Isaac Berrios (aggressive, 17% win rate). Trainer: Leonard Powell (consistent, 16% win rate). Weight: 122 lbs.
Recent Finishes: 2nd (94) at SA MSW (12/26/2025, 6f turf); 1st (96) at DMR MSW (11/15/2025, 5.5f turf); 4th (92) at SA Trial (10/10/2025, 6f turf); 3rd (90) at DMR MSW (8/5/2025, 5f turf); Debut.
Analysis: Recent maiden winner; Powell’s colt sharp. Berrios presses; solid figures. Wide draw hurts; playable if trip clean.
