The New England Patriots travel to face the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game at Empower Field at Mile High. As the top seed, Denver earned home-field advantage and a first-round bye, while New England advanced through the divisional round. This matchup features two strong, balanced teams with elite defenses, but Denver’s home elevation and recent form give them a slight edge in a projected low-scoring, physical contest.
Game Details
Kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. ET (1:00 p.m. MT / 12:00 p.m. PT)
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
TV Broadcast: CBS: Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson (field reporter)
Streaming: Paramount+, NFL+
Westwood One: Ryan Radtke, Mike Golic
Weather Updates
Denver in late January is typically cold and potentially snowy. Forecast for game time: Daytime highs 37–39°F, lows around 16–19°F, 55% chance of light snow or flurries (1–3 inches possible), winds 5–10 mph from the northwest, and low humidity. Altitude (~5,280 ft) will affect passing and endurance; expect wind chill near 25–30°F. Teams have prepared with cold-weather gear and altitude acclimation.
Injury Report
New England Patriots: Questionable: RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle), LB Robert Spillane (hamstring), OT Mike Onwenu (knee). Out: CB Jonathan Jones (concussion protocol, limited). Limited practice participants include several secondary players.
Denver Broncos: Out: QB Bo Nix (fractured right ankle – season-ending/surgery; backup Jarrett Stidham or similar expected to start). Questionable: RB J.K. Dobbins (foot – possible return). Limited: WR Courtland Sutton (illness), OL Garrett Bolles (ankle). Broncos’ depth at QB and RB tested.
Key Player Matchups
QB Jarrett Stidham (or Broncos backup) vs. Patriots secondary (led by Jabrill Peppers/Jonathan Jones): Broncos’ passing game limited without Nix; Patriots’ pass rush (led by Keion White, Christian Gonzalez coverage) could dominate.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Broncos run defense (led by Patrick Surtain II, Baron Browning): New England leans on ground game; Broncos rank top-10 vs. run but Dobbins’ status impacts.
WRs Drake London/DeMario Douglas vs. Broncos CBs (Surtain, Damarri Mathis): Elevation favors Broncos’ secondary; Patriots need big plays from slot/TE.
Patriots OL vs. Broncos pass rush (Nik Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper): Key for protecting QB and opening run lanes.
Special teams: Broncos’ altitude advantage in kicking/punting; field goal reliability critical in cold/snow.
Recent Team Forms
Patriots (last 5): Strong divisional round win; 4-1 in last five with balanced offense/defense.
Broncos (last 5): Dominant regular-season close + bye week rest; 4-1 with stout defense but QB injury looms large.
Series History
Patriots lead all-time series (historically strong vs. Broncos), but Broncos have won recent home meetings. Last playoff clash favored home team; average margin close in modern era (~3–5 points).
Betting Trends
Patriots cover 55–60% as road favorites in playoffs; Broncos strong home underdogs (cover ~52% historically). Unders hit ~58% in cold-weather playoff games (under 41.5 popular). Broncos cover well at home vs. spread (top-5 ATS home); public heavily on Patriots (70%+ tickets). Altitude games trend lower scoring (fewer completions, more run-heavy).
Best Bet: Under 41.5 (-110) – Cold, snow, elevation, and QB uncertainty suppress totals (58% historical hit rate in similar games). Strong value.
Alternative: Patriots ML (-250)
PATRIOTS NOTES:
• PATRIOTS will appear in 1st Conf. Champ game since 8 consecutive appearances from 2011-18. Seeking 4th SB appearance in last 10 seasons (2016-25) & 1st since 2018 (SB LIII win). • QB DRAKE MAYE passed for 179 yards & 3 TDs for 100.7 passer rating in AFC-D, his 14th game this season with 100+ rating, incl. playoffs, tied-4th most in single season in NFL history. Aims for 3rd in row in playoffs with TD pass. Led NFL with 113.5 rating. Ranked 3rd with career-high 31 TD passes & 4th with career-high 4,394 pass yards in 2025 & is 6th QB under 24 in NFL history with 4,000+ pass yards & 30+ TD passes in a single season. Became 3rd QB under 24 all-time with 2+ TD passes & 100+ rating in 10 games in a single season. • RB RHAMONDRE STEVENSON led team with 70 rush yards in AFC-D. Aims for 3rd in row with 80+ scrimmage yards. Had career-high 9 scrimmage TDs this season. • RB TREVEYON HENDERSON ranked 2nd among rookies with 911 rush yards & 1,132 scrimmage yards in 2025. Became 3rd rookie in NFL history (Saquon Barkley & HOFer Lenny Moore) with 4+ rush TDs of 50+ yards. • WR STEFON DIGGS had TD catch in NFC-D & became 7th player in NFL history with playoff TD catch with 3+ different teams. • WR KAYSHON BOUTTE led team with 75 rec. yards & had TD catch in AFC-D. • WR DEMARIO DOUGLAS had 1st career playoff TD catch in AFC-D. • DT MILTON WILLIAMS has 2+ sacks in 2 of his past 3 playoff games. • TE HUNTER HENRY had career-high 768 rec. yards & had 7 TD catches this season. • LB K’LAVON CHAISSON had sack & PD in AFC-D. Had career-high 7.5 sacks, 10 TFL & 2 FFs in 2025. • LB CHRISTIAN ELLISS had TFL & PD in AFC-D & aims for 3rd in row in playoffs with PD. • LB ROBERT SPILLANE had 6 tackles & PD in AFC-D & aims for 3rd in row in playoffs with PD. • CB CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ had 9 tackles, PD & FF in AFC-D. • CB MARCUS JONES had 2 PD & INT-TD in AFC-D. Had career-high 3 INTs this season. • CB CARLTON DAVIS had 4 PD & 2 INT in AFC-D, 1 of 9 to do so in playoff
BRONCOS NOTES:
• BRONCOS won AFC West & earned No. 1 seed for 1st time since 2015. Tied franchise record with 14 wins this season. Have advanced to Super Bowl 6 of previous 8 times as No. 1 seed. Seeking 1st SB appearance since 2015 (SB 50 win). • QB JARRETT STIDHAM expected to make 1st career playoff start & 5th career start in AFC-C. Has 1,422 passing yards & 8 TDs in his career. • RB RJ HARVEY (rookie) had 66 scrimmage yards in AFC-D, his 1st career playoff game. Led rookies with 12 scrimmage TDs in 2025. Was 1 of 2 rookie RBs (Alvin Kamara) since 2000 with 7+ rush TDs & 5+ rec. TDs. Has TD in 5 of his past 6. • WR COURTLAND SUTTON had 53 rec. yards in AFC-D & aims for 3rd in row in playoffs with 50+ rec. yards. Led team in receptions (74) & rec. yards (1,017) in 2025, 3rd season with 1,000+ rec. yards. Made 2nd-career Pro Bowl in 2025. • WR MARVIN MIMS led team with 8 receptions for 93 yards & had TD catch in AFC-D, his 1st career playoff TD. • TE EVAN ENGRAM is 1 of 3 TEs all-time with 40+ receptions in each of 1st 9 seasons. • T FRANK CRUM had TD catch in AFC-D, 6th OL with rec. TD in playoff game since 2000 & 1st since 2021. • LB ALEX SINGLETON led team with 14 tackles & had FF in AFC-D & aims for 3rd in row in playoffs with 14+ tackles. Led team with 135 tackles in 2025, 5th-career season with 100+ tackles. • LB NIK BONITTO had 2 FFs & sack in AFC-D. Had career-high 14 sacks in 2025. Made 2nd-career Pro Bowl in 2025. • DL ZACH ALLEN had 5 tackles & half sack in AFC-D. Made 1st-career Pro Bowl in 2025. • CB PAT SURTAIN II had 47 tackles & 12 PD in 2025. Is 1 of 5 since 2010 with 45+ tackles & 10+ PD in each of 1st 5 seasons. Made 4th-career Pro Bowl in 2025. • CB RILEY MOSS tied-most in NFL with career-high 19 PD this season. • CB JA’QUAN MCMILLIAN had 1st career postseason INT in AFC-D. • S TALANOA HUFANGA had 10 tackles & FR in AFC-D. Set career highs in tackles (106), PD (11) & TFL (6) in 2025. • S P.J. LOCKE had 9 tackles, INT & FF in AFC-D. Aims for 3rd in row in playoffs with 9+ tackles.
Game Odds
New England Patriots – 5.5
Denver Broncos 42.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Saturday, January 24, 2026
