Miami Hurricanes (13–2) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (15–0)
Monday, January 19, 2026 — 7:30 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium — Miami Gardens, Florida
TV: ESPN
VENUE INFORMATION
Hard Rock Stadium — Miami Gardens, FL
- Capacity: ~65,000
- Surface: Natural grass
- Home of: Miami Hurricanes, Miami Dolphins
- Notable: Miami becomes the first team in CFP history to play a title game in its home stadium.
WEATHER FORECAST (GAME DAY — JAN 19, 2026)
From Miami Gardens forecast data:
- High: 69°F
- Low: 55°F
- Conditions: Partly sunny during the day, partly cloudy at night
- Rain Chance: 1%
- Wind: 11 mph from the north
Source:
Impact:
Cooler-than-usual South Florida weather favors defense and ball control, slightly benefiting Miami’s physical front and Indiana’s precision passing game.
INJURY REPORT (PROJECTED)
No major injuries reported for either team in available sources.
Both teams enter the championship fully healthy, with all primary starters available.
TEAM RECORDS & SEASON OVERVIEW
Miami Hurricanes (13–2, 6–2 ACC)
Sources:
- Points For: 474
- Points Allowed: 210
- Strength: Elite defense (47 sacks, 16 INTs)
- Playoff Path:
- Beat #7 Texas A&M 10–3
- Beat #2 Ohio State 24–14
- Beat #6 Ole Miss 31–27
- Notable: 7 wins vs AP Top 25 — most in ACC history for a single season
Indiana Hoosiers (15–0, 9–0 Big Ten)
Sources:
- Points For: 639
- Points Allowed: 166
- Strength: Nation’s largest scoring margin (+28.6 PPG)
- Playoff Path:
- Beat #9 Alabama 38–3
- Beat #5 Oregon 56–22
- Notable: First undefeated Indiana team since 1945; first Big Ten title since 1967.
CONFERENCE vs. CONFERENCE
- ACC (Miami): 9–4 in postseason entering title game — best among all conferences
- Big Ten (Indiana): 10 postseason wins — most of any conference
SERIES HISTORY
- All-time series: Tied 1–1
- Last meeting: Miami won 14–7 in 1966
RECENT FORM
Miami — Last 5 Games
- W 38–7 @ Pitt
- W 10–3 @ Texas A&M
- W 24–14 vs Ohio State
- W 31–27 vs Ole Miss
- Streak: 7 straight wins
Indiana — Last 5 Games
- W 31–7 vs Wisconsin
- W 56–3 @ Purdue
- W 13–10 vs Ohio State (Big Ten title)
- W 38–3 vs Alabama
- W 56–22 vs Oregon
- Streak: 15 straight wins (nation’s longest)
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
QB: Carson Beck (Miami) vs. Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)
- Beck: Veteran, efficient, clutch in playoffs
- Mendoza: Heisman Trophy winner, 36 TD / 6 INT, elite efficiency
Edge: Indiana — Mendoza is the most efficient QB in the nation.
Miami Pass Rush vs. Indiana Offensive Line
- Miami: 47 sacks (top 5 nationally)
- Indiana OL: Allowed very few sacks; kept Mendoza clean all postseason.
Edge: Even — Miami’s best unit vs. Indiana’s best unit.
Indiana RB Trio vs. Miami Front Seven
- Indiana: Three RBs with 500+ yards each
- Miami: Top‑10 rushing defense.
Edge: Miami — slightly, due to elite gap discipline.
Miami WR Malachi Toney vs. Indiana Secondary
- Toney: Freshman breakout star
- Indiana: Multiple pick‑six threats; opportunistic defense.
Edge: Indiana — ball‑hawking secondary.
BETTING TRENDS
- Indiana is 15–0 straight up
- Indiana has 12 double‑digit wins this season
- Miami is 7–0 ATS in its last 7 games
- Miami has beaten three SEC teams this season (Florida, Texas A&M, Ole Miss)
- Indiana has covered both CFP games easily (+33 vs Alabama, +34 vs Oregon)
HISTORICAL BETTING RESULTS
- Miami: Covered as underdogs vs Ohio State and Ole Miss
- Indiana: Covered in 14 of 15 games this season
- Indiana has not lost a game ATS by more than 3 points all season
GAME PREDICTION
How Miami Wins
- Control tempo with Mark Fletcher Jr.
- Generate pressure with Bain Jr. and Mesidor
- Win turnover battle
- Use home‑field familiarity to their advantage
How Indiana Wins
- Mendoza stays clean in the pocket
- Defense forces Beck into mistakes
- Maintain balanced attack with three RBs
- Jump out early and force Miami to chase
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION
Indiana 31, Miami 20
Why:
Indiana has been the most complete team in college football — elite offense, elite defense, elite coaching. Miami’s run is historic, but Indiana’s precision, depth, and turnover margin give them the edge.
Game Odds
Miami-FL Hurricanes 47.5
Indiana Hoosiers – 8.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Sunday, January 18, 2025
