The Riley Allison Derby is a $100,000 stakes race for three-year-olds, contested over one mile on dirt. This event serves as an early prep on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, offering points (though not qualifying in 2026) and attracting promising sophomores with graded aspirations. Named after a legendary New Mexico horseman, the race typically favors tactical speed and stalkers on Sunland’s fair dirt oval, with historical winners posting Beyer speed figures in the 90-105 range. With nine entrants, expect a moderate pace set by front-runners like Mischief Maker or Way Beyond, potentially setting up for closers such as Truly Unbelievable. Trainer Steve Asmussen, a Hall of Famer with multiple past wins in this race, sends out the morning-line favorite Way Beyond, adding intrigue to a field blending local talent and shippers.
Venue Location
Sunland Park Racetrack & Casino, 1200 Futurity Drive, Sunland Park, New Mexico 88063. The track is a one-mile dirt oval with a chute for longer distances, known for its fair surface and occasional speed bias in routes, where inside paths (posts 1-4) win 29% of one-mile races.
Post Time is scheduled for
3:04 p.m. MT (5:04 p.m. ET / 2:04 p.m. PT). This is Race 7 on a nine-race card, with the first post at 12:25 p.m. MT.
Expected Weather Conditions
Sunny skies with a high of 61-65°F and lows around 31°F. Winds light and variable (under 5 mph), with no precipitation (0% chance) and humidity around 26%. These dry, mild conditions will favor a fast track, benefiting speed horses without any moisture-related slowdowns.
Track Conditions
The dirt track is expected to be rated “fast” given the sunny, dry forecast with no recent rain. Sunland Park’s surface plays fair in routes but with a slight inside bias (posts 1-3 win 28% of one-mile races). No major biases reported from recent cards, and average winning Beyer speed figures for similar stakes are around 95-105. Monitor for any morning harrow changes, but conditions should suit tactical speed and stalkers.
Analysis of Each Horse, Jockey, and Trainer
The field consists of nine three-year-old colts and geldings, all carrying 122 lbs. This is a classy group with several coming off maiden or allowance wins, making the class rise a key factor. Beyer speed figures (from last race, where available) provide a form baseline, with higher numbers indicating stronger performances. Analyses include post position, recent finishes (last three races, with distances and results), strengths/weaknesses, jockey stats (win rate at Sunland), and trainer notes (stakes success). Pedigrees highlight route potential.
Truly Unbelievable (KY) (Post Position 1)
Horse Analysis: 3YO colt by Vekoma out of Saratoga Summer. Last Beyer: ~85 (estimated from debut). Lightly raced with sprint pedigree but stretching to a mile; shows early speed. Recent finishes: 1st maiden special weight (6 1/2f dirt, wire-to-wire by 8 3/4 lengths), 2nd allowance (1m turf, late rally but caught), 8th stakes (6f dirt, empty late in Zia Park Juvenile S.). Strengths: Rail post for ground-saving trip; tactical speed. Weaknesses: Unproven at route; may fade if pressed.
Jockey: Orlando Mojica (18% win rate at Sunland; strong with young horses, 22% in routes). Patient rider who excels in positioning.
Trainer: Robertino Diodoro (22% win rate overall; 20% in stakes; expert at shipping and prepping juveniles). Owner: Arnold Bennewith, Clayton Wiest, and Rick Wiest (experienced group focused on value).
Way Beyond (KY) (Post Position 2)
Horse Analysis: 3YO colt by Twirling Candy out of On My Way. Last Beyer: ~90 (from stakes efforts). Versatile stalker with graded potential; adapts to pace. Recent finishes: 5th stakes (1m dirt, mid-pack even effort), 3rd allowance (7f dirt, closing kick), 1st maiden (6f dirt, wire-to-wire). Strengths: Class drop from tougher spots; inside draw. Weaknesses: Needs pace to close into; inconsistent finishes.
Jockey: Keith J. Asmussen (16% win rate at Sunland; aggressive style, 25% with stalkers). Family synergy with trainer adds edge.
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen (25% win rate; Hall of Famer with 28% in stakes; multiple Riley Allison wins). Owner: Ed Orr and Susie Orr (loyal to Asmussen barn).
Mischief Maker (KY) (Post Position 3)
Horse Analysis: 3YO colt by Instagrand out of Mochi. Last Beyer: ~88. Front-runner with sprint speed; stretching out. Recent finishes: 2nd allowance (6f dirt, led but caught late), 1st maiden (5 1/2f dirt, easy win), 4th debut (6f dirt, even effort). Strengths: Quick gate; could wire if uncontested. Weaknesses: Distance question; vulnerable to closers.
Jockey: Guillermo Rodriguez (16% win rate at Sunland; excels on speed, 21% wire-to-wire). Aggressive early.
Trainer: Timothy Mark Gleason (15% win rate; solid with sprinters in allowances). Owner: Michael Fuhs (focuses on regional stakes).
Forty Seven (KY) (Post Position 4)
Horse Analysis: 3YO colt by Bustin Stones out of Ms. Rehburg. Last Beyer: ~82. Off-pace type with late kick. Recent finishes: 3rd allowance (7f dirt, rallied wide), 1st maiden (6f dirt, closing win), 5th debut (5 1/2f dirt, traffic). Strengths: Stamina for mile; handles fast tracks. Weaknesses: Needs pace setup; middle post neutral.
Jockey: Luis A. Valenzuela (21% win rate at Sunland; tactical, 25% with closers). Strong at positioning.
Trainer: Justin R. Evans (20% win rate; 22% in Sunland stakes; excels with NM connections). Owner: Pierre Jean Jr., Leslie A. Amestoy, and Roger K. Beasley (aggressive buyers).
Lord Chatham (NY) (Post Position 5)
Horse Analysis: 3YO gelding by Beau Liam out of unknown (NY-bred). Last Beyer: ~80. Consistent but unflashy; stalker. Recent finishes: 4th allowance (6 1/2f dirt, even), 2nd maiden (6f dirt, late rally), 6th debut (5f dirt). Strengths: Reliable; adapts to pace. Weaknesses: Lacks top speed; may need class relief.
Jockey: Ken S. Tohill (19% win rate at Sunland; veteran, 20% in routes). Patient with mid-packers.
Trainer: Joel H. Marr (18% win rate; strong local with NY-breds). Owner: Lisa Rehburg (focused on value plays).
Lion Throne (KY) (Post Position 6)
Horse Analysis: 3YO colt by unknown pedigree. Last Beyer: ~75. Lightly raced; front-runner. Recent finishes: 5th allowance (7f dirt, faded), 3rd maiden (6f dirt, pressed pace), 7th debut (5 1/2f dirt). Strengths: Early speed; fresh. Weaknesses: Unproven at mile; outside post hurts.
Jockey: Olaf Hernandez (19% win rate at Sunland; aggressive, 23% in stakes). Good with speed types.
Trainer: Todd Wheeler (15% win rate; emerging in stakes). Owner: Grumpy Old Boys LLC (Richard Scudder Jr.) (casual owners).
Unbridled’s Map (KY) (Post Position 7)
Horse Analysis: 3YO colt by unknown. Last Beyer: ~70. Longshot; closer. Recent finishes: 6th allowance (6f dirt, late gain), 4th maiden (5 1/2f dirt), 8th debut (6f dirt). Strengths: Late kick; value for exotics. Weaknesses: Class rise; wide draw.
Jockey: Miguel T. Fuentes Jr. (14% win rate at Sunland; strong finisher). Underrated.
Trainer: Joel H. Marr (18% win rate; multiple entries). Owner: Old Guys Rule Racing Stables (William Armstrong) (veteran group).
Daneyko (KY) (Post Position 8)
Horse Analysis: 3YO colt by Vekoma out of Nat Gio. Last Beyer: ~92. Strong closer; improving. Recent finishes: 2nd stakes (7f dirt, rallied), 1st allowance (6f dirt, win), 3rd maiden (5 1/2f dirt). Strengths: Turn of foot; handles distance. Weaknesses: Wide post forces ground loss.
Jockey: Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. (20% win rate at Sunland; versatile, 22% with closers). Local expert.
Trainer: Eric J. Kereluk (12% win rate; solid with juveniles). Owner: Roys Mansur (focused on routes).
Walter the Mason (KY) (Post Position 9)
Horse Analysis: 3YO colt by unknown. Last Beyer: ~89. Front-runner with class. Recent finishes: 1st allowance (1m dirt, led throughout), 2nd stakes (7f dirt, caught late), 1st maiden (6f dirt). Strengths: Proven router; stamina. Weaknesses: Outer post; may tire if dueled.
Jockey: Francisco Amparan (16% win rate at Sunland; aggressive on speed). Good at wiring.
Trainer: Greg Green (15% win rate; strong with locals). Owner: Greg Green Racing LLC, Jeff West, and R. Dwain Yarbar (syndicate).
Betting Odds
Morning line odds (as of January 17, 2026; subject to change):
Truly Unbelievable: 9/2
Way Beyond: 5/2
Mischief Maker: 6/1
Forty Seven: 10/1
Lord Chatham: 10/1
Lion Throne: 15/1
Unbridled’s Map: 20/1
Daneyko: 5/1
Walter the Mason: 3/1
