The Houston Texans (12-5, No. 5 seed in AFC) face the New England Patriots (14-3, No. 2 seed in AFC) in an AFC Divisional Round playoff matchup. This is the third postseason encounter between the teams, with New England holding a 2-0 playoff record, including a 34-10 win in the 2016 Divisional Round and a 41-28 victory in the 2012 Divisional Round. Houston advanced with a convincing 30-6 Wild Card shutout of the Pittsburgh Steelers on Jan. 12, forcing three turnovers and limiting Pittsburgh to 175 total yards. New England earned a bye after clinching the No. 2 seed with a 16-3 Wild Card win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Jan. 11, relying on their defense (three INTs) and run game (142 rushing yards). The Texans are on a 10-game win streak, but New England’s home dominance (6-3 at Gillette) and historical playoff edge make them favorites. Houston’s elite defense (No. 3 in yards allowed, 299.8 YPG) vs. New England’s balanced attack could define this low-scoring battle, with cold weather favoring ground games.
Venue Location
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA (Capacity: 64,628). The open-air venue often features harsh weather, amplifying home-field advantage with crowd noise and elements.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 PM ET (Broadcast: ESPN/ABC).
Broadcast: ESPN/ABC: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Lisa Salters / Laura Rutledge (field reporter)
Westwood One: John Sadak, Jason McCourty
Weather Updates
Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow showers. Highs around 36°F (2°C), lows dropping to 27°F (-3°C) by game’s end. Winds S at 6.3 mph, gusts up to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 20-30% (0.2 inches of snow possible), humidity 64%. The cold and potential flurries could impact passing accuracy and favor run-heavy offenses, with wind affecting field goals over 40 yards. Altitude is not a factor, but the elements could exacerbate fatigue for the Texans.
Injury Report
Both teams are managing injuries, with Houston’s receiving corps depleted and New England’s offensive line vulnerable. Reports are based on Wednesday’s practice sessions.
Houston Texans:
WR Nico Collins (concussion): DNP; questionable, in protocol.
WR Justin Watson (concussion): DNP; questionable, in protocol.
OT Trent Brown (ankle): DNP; questionable.
DE Denico Autry (knee): DNP; questionable.
LB Azeez Al-Shaair (knee): LP; probable.
RB Jawhar Jordan (ankle): LP; questionable.
OT Tytus Howard (ankle): LP; probable.
OG Ed Ingram (shoulder): LP; probable.
CB Kamari Lassiter (ankle/knee): LP; probable.
DT Sheldon Rankins (elbow): LP; probable.
OT Aireontae Ersery (thumb): FP; probable.
S Jaylen Reed (forearm): FP; probable.
New England Patriots:
OT Morgan Moses (knee): DNP; questionable.
OT Thayer Munford Jr. (knee): DNP; questionable.
CB Christian Gonzalez (concussion): LP; questionable, in protocol.
TE Hunter Henry (knee): LP; questionable.
LB Anfernee Jennings (knee): LP; questionable.
RB Terrell Jennings (concussion): LP; questionable, in protocol.
DE Harold Landry (knee): LP; questionable.
DT Khyiris Tonga (foot): LP; questionable.
CB Alex Austin (wrist): FP; probable.
Key Player Matchups to Watch
This game features dynamic quarterbacks against strong defenses, with injuries forcing secondary players to step up.
QB C.J. Stroud (HOU) vs. QB Drake Maye (NE): Stroud (3,800+ passing yards, 25 TDs; 250 yards in Wild Card) is efficient but faces a Patriots secondary that forced 3 INTs in their win. Maye (~3,500 yards, efficient rookie) must manage the game against Houston’s No. 3 pass rush (48 sacks).
WR Christian Kirk (HOU) vs. CB Christian Gonzalez (NE): Kirk (1,000+ yards; 144 in Wild Card) becomes primary target sans Collins. Gonzalez (concussion; LP) is New England’s top cover corner, aiming to limit explosive plays.
RB Woody Marks (HOU) vs. DT Khyiris Tonga (NE): Marks (1,000+ rushing yards; 112 in Wild Card) leads Houston’s ground attack. Tonga (foot; LP) anchors New England’s run D, clogging lanes.
LB Azeez Al-Shaair (HOU) vs. TE Hunter Henry (NE): Al-Shaair (knee; LP, leading tackler) is Houston’s coverage LB. Henry (knee; LP) is New England’s red-zone threat, exploiting mismatches.
Recent Team Forms
Houston Texans (7-3 in last 10 games, +8.5 point differential):
The Texans are on a 10-game win streak (including playoffs), averaging 27.2 PPG while allowing 18.7. Road form: 5-3. They’re coming off a 30-6 Wild Card rout of Pittsburgh, where their defense forced 3 turnovers and limited the Steelers to 175 total yards.
| Date | Opponent | Result |
| Jan 12 | vs PIT (Wild Card) | W 30-6 |
| Jan 4 | vs SF | W 13-3 |
| Jan 1 | vs IND | W 152-128 |
| Dec 29 | vs MIN | W 35-28 |
| Dec 27 | vs CHI | W 112-103 |
| Dec 25 | @ SEA | W 28-21 |
| Dec 21 | vs ATL | W 116-112 |
| Dec 19 | @ MIN | L 28-35 |
| Dec 14 | vs NYJ | W 35-28 |
| Dec 7 | @ BUF | W 31-24 |
New England Patriots (8-2 in last 10 games, +12.5 point differential):
The Patriots averaged 25.4 PPG while allowing 17.4 in their last 10. Home form: 6-3. They’re on a 4-game win streak after a 16-3 Wild Card victory over the Chargers, forcing 3 INTs and holding them to 217 yards.
| Date | Opponent | Result |
| Jan 11 | vs LAC (Wild Card) | W 16-3 |
| Jan 4 | @ MIA | W 24-21 |
| Jan 1 | vs NE | W 35-28 |
| Dec 29 | @ NYJ | W 21-24 |
| Dec 27 | vs CHI | W 112-103 |
| Dec 25 | @ KC | L 21-28 |
| Dec 21 | vs MIA | W 31-24 |
| Dec 18 | @ BUF | W 35-28 |
| Dec 14 | vs KC | L 24-31 |
| Dec 7 | @ NE | W 28-21 |
Series History
New England leads the all-time series 9-5 (including playoffs 2-0). The Patriots have won 5 of the last 6 meetings, with an average margin of 12.5 points. Houston’s largest win was 20-9 in 2010; New England’s was 42-14 in 2012. At Gillette Stadium, New England is 5-1 vs. Houston. Recent games average 48.2 points, trending over in 4 of last 6.
Betting Trends
Texans are 10-8 ATS overall (55.6%), 5-3 ATS on the road (62.5%). Patriots are 12-6 ATS (66.7%), 6-3 ATS at home (66.7%). Over has hit in 9 of Texans’ 17 games (52.9%), 8 of Patriots’ 17 (47.1%). Trends: Texans 10-0 SU in last 10; Patriots 5-2 ATS in last 7 as favorites. Total under in 4 of last 5 Texans playoff games; over in 3 of last 5 Patriots home playoff games. Texans 2-4 ATS in last 6 as underdogs; Patriots 7-3 ATS in last 10 vs. AFC South.
TEXANS NOTES:
• TEXANS can advance to 1st Conf. Champ. Game in franchise history. Won 12 games in a season for 2nd time in franchise history (2012). • QB C.J. STROUD passed for 250 yards & TD in AFC-WC & became 4th QB ever to start & win playoff game in each of 1st 3 seasons. Had 3,041 yards & 19 TD passes in 2025. Aims for 4th in row in playoffs with 245+ pass yards. Has TD pass in 2 of his past 3 postseason games. Had 3 TD passes in last reg. season meeting. • RB WOODY MARKS (rookie) had 112 rush yards & TD in AFC-WC. Ranked 6th among rookies with 703 rush yards in 2025. Aims for his 4th in row on road with 75+ scrimmage yards. • WR NICO COLLINS led team with 1,132 scrimmage yards & ranked tied-9th in NFL with 1,117 rec. yards in 2025. Is 1 of 4 WRs with 1,000+ scrimmage yards & 5+ TDs in each of past 3 seasons. Made 2nd-career Pro Bowl in 2025. • WR CHRISTIAN KIRK had 144 rec. yards & TD in AFC-WC. Aims for 4th in row in playoffs with TD catch. • WR JAYDEN HIGGINS ranked tied-2nd among rookies with 6 rec. TDs in 2025. Had 2nd-most rec. TDs by a rookie in franchise history. • TE DALTON SCHULTZ ranked 3rd among TEs in catches (82) & 6th in rec. yards (777) in 2025. • DE DANIELLE HUNTER had sack & FF in AFC-WC. Has sack in 4 of his past 5 on road in playoffs. Ranked 3rd in NFL with 15 sacks in 2025, 7th-career season with 10+ sacks. • DE WILL ANDERSON had 0.5 sack & FF in AFC-WC & aims for 4th in row in playoffs with 0.5+ sacks.. Had career-high 12 sacks in 2025. Made 2nd-career Pro Bowl in 2025. • DT SHELDON RANKINS had 1.5 sacks & FR-TD in AFC-WC & became 1st DT since 1982 with FR-TD & 1+ sack in a playoff game. • LB AZEEZ AL-SHAAIR had 6 tackles & TFL in AFC-WC. Made 1st-career Pro Bowl in 2025. • CB KAMARI LASSITER had 6 tackles & PD in AFC-WC. Ranked tied-5th in NFL with career-high 17 PD in 2025. Has PD in 2 of his past 3 playoff games. • CB DEREK STINGLEY had 15 PD this season, as he & Lassiter were 1 of 2 pairs of teammates each with 15+ PD. Made 2nd-career Pro Bowl in 2025. • S CALEN BULLOCK had 1st-career postseason INT in AFC-WC.
PATRIOTS NOTES:
• PATRIOTS won 1st playoff game since 2018 & are seeking 1st Conf. Champ game since 8 consec. appearances from 2011-18. • QB DRAKE MAYE passed for 268 yards & TD & had 66 rush yards in AFC-WC, his 1st career playoff start. Ranked 3rd with career-high 31 TD passes & 4th with career-high 4,394 pass yards in 2025 & is 6th QB under 24 in NFL history with 4,000+ pass yards & 30+ TD passes in a single season. Became 3rd QB under 24 all-time with 2+ TD passes & 100+ rating in 10 games in a single season. Had 3 TD passes in last reg. season meeting. • RB RHAMONDRE STEVENSON had 128 scrimmage yards (75 rec., 53 rush) in AFCWC & had career-high 9 scrimmage TDs this season. • RB TREVEYON HENDERSON ranked 2nd among rookies with 911 rush yards & 1,132 scrimmage yards in 2025. Became 3rd rookie in NFL history (Saquon Barkley & HOFer Lenny Moore) with 4+ rush TDs of 50+ yards. • WR STEFON DIGGS ranks 3rd since 2015 with 71 receptions & 925 rec. yards in postseason. Had 100+ rec. yards in 2 of his last 3 reg. season games. • WR KAYSHON BOUTTE had career-high 6 TD catches in 2025. • TE HUNTER HENRY had 64 rec. yards & TD catch in AFC-WC. Had career-high 768 rec. yards & had 7 TD catches this season. • LB K’LAVON CHAISSON had 2 sacks & FF in AFC-WC. Had career-high 7.5 sacks, 10 TFL & 2 FFs in 2025. • LB CHRISTIAN ELLISS had 7 tackles, PD & FR in AFC-WC. • LB ROBERT SPILLANE had 6 tackles & PD in AFC-WC & aims for 4th in row in postseason with 5+ tackles. • CB CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ had 2 PD in AFC-WC & had 10 PD in 2025, his 2nd consecutive season with 10+ PD. • CB MARCUS JONES had sack, PD & FF in AFC-WC. Had career-high 3 INTs this season. • S CRAIG WOODSON (rookie) had team-high 9 tackles & had TFL in AFC-WC. • S JAYLINN HAWKINS ranked tied-8th with career-high 4 INTs this season. Had PD in 4 of his last 5 reg. season games.
Game Odds
Houston Texans 40.5
New England Patriots – 3.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Saturday, January 17, 2026
