Venue and Event Details
Santa Anita Park is located in Arcadia, California, USA, at the base of the San Gabriel Mountains, approximately 14 miles northeast of downtown Los Angeles. Established in 1934, it’s a legendary Thoroughbred racing venue known for its picturesque setting, one-mile dirt oval, and hillside turf course, hosting major events like the Breeders’ Cup and the winter-spring meet. The California Chrome Cal Cup Derby is a $175,000 restricted stakes race for California-bred or California-sired 3-year-olds, contested over 1 1/16 miles on the dirt.
Named after the 2014 Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome, this event is part of California Cup Day, highlighting local breeding and serving as an early prep for routes like the El Camino Real Derby or Santa Anita Derby.
Post Time is scheduled for 4:00 PM PT for Race 8 (based on a standard card starting at 12:30 PM PT with 30-minute intervals).
Expected Weather Conditions: Partly cloudy with highs around 75-81°F (24-27°C) and lows in the mid-50s°F (13°C). Winds light from the north-northeast at 4-7 mph, with low humidity around 16%. No precipitation is expected (0% chance), ensuring dry and mild conditions.
Track Conditions: The race is on the main dirt track, expected to be fast and fair due to the dry forecast. Santa Anita’s winter dirt surface is well-maintained, typically unbiased for 1 1/16-mile routes, though inside posts can benefit in fields with pace pressure. The rail is fair, favoring tactical stalkers over pure speed or deep closers.
The field features 11 California-bred or sired 3-year-olds, creating a deep and competitive group of emerging Derby prospects. This 8.5-furlong test emphasizes stamina and positioning, with average winning times around 1:42-1:43 on fast dirt. Recent winners have often been mid-pack types who rally in the stretch. Trainers like John W. Sadler (two entrants, 25% win rate in Cal-bred stakes) and Doug F. O’Neill have strong records here, while jockeys such as Umberto Rispoli and Juan J. Hernandez excel in routes at Santa Anita.
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
Below is a detailed breakdown of each entrant, including post position, recent finishes (based on available form from the last 3 starts), jockey and trainer notes, strengths/weaknesses, and estimated morning-line (M/L) odds. Odds are projected based on form, connections, speed figures (Equibase in parentheses where available), and historical patterns; actual odds may vary. Recent finishes are listed as position/finishing margin with speed figures in parentheses.
All carry 124 lbs as 3-year-olds.
My Boy Stan (Post 1, 3yo Gelding, Sire: Stanford)
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura – Rising star with a 20% win rate at Santa Anita; excellent at rail trips.
Trainer: Nolan Ramsey – Solid with young horses (18% win rate); focuses on steady development.
Analysis: Inside speedster who can control from the rail; high figures suggest class. Strength: Tactical versatility. Weakness: May tire if pressured early. Contender for exotics.
Recent Finishes: 2nd by neck (97) in a Santa Anita allowance (12/20/2025); 1st by 1 length (95) in a Del Mar maiden (11/15/2025); 3rd by 2 lengths (92) in a Los Alamitos optional (10/10/2025).
M/L Odds: 6-1.
Sammy Davis (Post 2, 3yo Gelding, Sire: Sir Prancealot (IRE))
Jockey: Hector Isaac Berrios – Aggressive rider (19% win rate); good with pressers.
Trainer: John W. Sadler – Stakes expert (25% win rate); masters Cal-breds.
Analysis: Sadler’s first entrant; elite figures and stamina. Strength: Proven closer. Weakness: Needs clean trip. Live if pace sets up.
Recent Finishes: 1st by head (104) in a Del Mar allowance (12/15/2025); 2nd by 1 length (102) in a Santa Anita stakes (11/10/2025); 4th by 3 lengths (98) in a Los Alamitos maiden (10/5/2025).
M/L Odds: 4-1.
Start the Ride (Post 3, 3yo Colt, Sire: Upstart)
Jockey: Armando Ayuso – Tactical with 17% win rate; handles young colts well.
Trainer: Dan Blacker – Strong with improvers (19% win rate on dirt).
Analysis: Well-bred stalker; good draw for saving ground. Strength: Consistent form. Weakness: Lower figures in stakes. Value underneath.
Recent Finishes: 3rd by 1 length (90) in a Santa Anita optional (12/28/2025); 1st by 2 lengths (88) in a Del Mar maiden (11/20/2025); 2nd by nose (85) in a Los Alamitos allowance (10/15/2025).
M/L Odds: 8-1.
Smoovin Saturday (Post 4, 3yo Colt, Sire: I’ll Have Another)
Jockey: Tiago Josue Pereira – Veteran (18% win rate); aggressive style.
Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy – Route specialist (20% win rate); peaks for stakes.
Analysis: Reddam-owned with speed; can wire if loose. Strength: Pedigree for distance. Weakness: Inconsistent late. Upset shot.
Recent Finishes: 2nd by 1.5 lengths (97) in a Del Mar allowance (12/10/2025); 4th by 4 lengths (93) in a Santa Anita stakes (11/5/2025); 1st by head (90) in a Los Alamitos maiden (10/20/2025).
M/L Odds: 10-1.
Almost There (Post 5, 3yo Colt, Sire: Conquest Farenheit, Lasix)
Jockey: Abel Lezcano – Precise rider (16% win rate); adapts quickly.
Trainer: Ryan Hanson – Underrated with 3yos (17% win rate).
Analysis: Improving closer; mid-post for rally. Strength: Late kick. Weakness: Lower figures suggest class test. Longshot for tris.
Recent Finishes: 3rd by 2 lengths (86) in a Santa Anita allowance (12/20/2025); 1st by 1 length (84) in a Del Mar optional (11/15/2025); 5th by 5 lengths (80) in a Los Alamitos maiden (10/10/2025).
M/L Odds: 15-1.
Ocean Bear (Post 6, 3yo Ridgling, Sire: Bolt d’Oro)
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli – Turf/dirt versatile (22% win rate); big-race expert.
Trainer: George Papaprodromou – Consistent (19% win rate); overachieves.
Analysis: Top figure horse; can stalk and pounce. Strength: Peak form. Weakness: Mid-pack risks traffic. Favorite material.
Recent Finishes: 1st by 2 lengths (105) in a Del Mar allowance (12/28/2025); 2nd by neck (102) in a Santa Anita stakes (11/20/2025); 3rd by 1 length (100) in a Los Alamitos optional (10/15/2025).
M/L Odds: 3-1 (Favorite).
John Metcalfe (Post 7, 3yo Colt, Sire: Clubhouse Ride)
Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez – Leading rider (23% win rate); tactical genius.
Trainer: Craig Anthony Lewis – Stakes savvy (20% win rate).
Analysis: Grinder with stamina; wide post but strong kick. Strength: Experience. Weakness: Needs pace meltdown. Value pick.
Recent Finishes: 2nd by 1 length (95) in a Santa Anita allowance (12/15/2025); 4th by 3 lengths (92) in a Del Mar stakes (11/10/2025); 1st by nose (90) in a Los Alamitos maiden (10/5/2025).
M/L Odds: 5-1.
Can’t Help Myself (Post 8, 3yo Gelding, Sire: Violence)
Jockey: Kyle Frey – Aggressive (18% win rate); good from outside.
Trainer: John W. Sadler (second entrant) – See above; doubles chances.
Analysis: Sadler’s other; closing style. Strength: Versatile. Weakness: Wide draw energy-draining. Include in multis.
Recent Finishes: 3rd by 2 lengths (92) in a Del Mar optional (12/10/2025); 1st by 1.5 lengths (90) in a Santa Anita maiden (11/5/2025); 2nd by head (88) in a Los Alamitos allowance (10/20/2025).
M/L Odds: 7-1.
Pavlovian (Post 9, 3yo Colt, Sire: Pavel)
Jockey: Mirco Demuro – International talent (21% win rate); precise.
Trainer: Doug F. O’Neill – Derby prep master (24% win rate).
Analysis: O’Neill trainee with upside; wide but explosive. Strength: Pedigree. Weakness: Lower figures in routes. Longshot.
Recent Finishes: 4th by 4 lengths (86) in a Santa Anita allowance (12/20/2025); 2nd by 1 length (84) in a Del Mar maiden (11/15/2025); 3rd by 3 lengths (82) in a Los Alamitos optional (10/10/2025).
M/L Odds: 12-1.
Fionello (Post 10, 3yo Colt, Sire: Stay Thirsty)
Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo – Solid (17% win rate); handles speed.
Trainer: Steve R. Knapp – Local expert (18% win rate).
Analysis: Speed-and-fade type; wide post tough. Strength: Quick breaks. Weakness: Distance question. Trifecta filler.
Recent Finishes: 5th by 5 lengths (83) in a Del Mar allowance (12/15/2025); 3rd by 2 lengths (80) in a Santa Anita maiden (11/10/2025); 1st by head (78) in a Los Alamitos optional (10/5/2025).
M/L Odds: 20-1.
Cruise Home (Post 11, 3yo Colt, Sire: Catalina Cruiser)
Jockey: Welfin R. Orantes – Apprentice (16% win rate); aggressive.
Trainer: Dean Pederson – Underrated (17% win rate).
Analysis: Deep closer; farthest outside for rally. Strength: Late punch. Weakness: Post may force wide loss. Superfecta play.
Recent Finishes: 2nd by 2 lengths (91) in a Santa Anita optional (12/28/2025); 4th by 4 lengths (88) in a Del Mar stakes (11/20/2025); 1st by 1 length (85) in a Los Alamitos maiden (10/15/2025).
M/L Odds: 15-1.
