Venue and Event Details
Santa Anita Park is located in Arcadia, California, USA, nestled at the base of the San Gabriel Mountains, approximately 14 miles northeast of downtown Los Angeles. Opened in 1934, it’s one of the most iconic Thoroughbred racing venues in the world, known for its picturesque setting, dirt and turf tracks, and hosting major events like the Breeders’ Cup. The Don Valpredo California Cup Sprint Stakes is a $125,000 restricted stakes race for California-bred or California-sired horses aged four and up, contested over 6 furlongs on the dirt. This event is part of the California Cup Day card, highlighting Golden State-bred talent and serving as a showcase for sprint specialists. It’s named after longtime breeder Don Valpredo and often features repeat contenders from previous editions.
Post Time is scheduled for 1:00 PM PT for Race 2 (based on the standard card starting at 12:30 PM PT).
Expected Weather Conditions: Partly cloudy with a high of 75°F (24°C) and low around 54°F (12°C). Winds light at 4-5 mph from the west, with low humidity around 16-20%. No precipitation is forecasted (0% chance), leading to dry and mild conditions ideal for racing.
Track Conditions: The race is on the main dirt track, expected to be fast and fair. Santa Anita’s winter dirt surface is well-drained and typically unbiased for 6-furlong sprints, though inside posts can have a slight edge in speed-favoring setups. No rail bias anticipated given the dry forecast.
The field consists of 5 California-bred entrants, making for a compact, high-quality sprint. This 6-furlong dash emphasizes early speed and closing ability, with average winning times around 1:08-1:09 on fast dirt. Recent winners like Big City Lights (2025 edition by 7¾ lengths) have been dominant front-runners. Trainers such as Richard Mandella and Phil D’Amato have strong records in Cal-bred stakes, while jockeys like Mike Smith and Edwin Maldonado thrive in sprints at Santa Anita.
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
Below is a detailed breakdown of each entrant, including post position, recent finishes (based on available form from the last 3-5 starts), jockey and trainer notes, strengths/weaknesses, and estimated morning-line (M/L) odds. Odds are projected based on form, connections, and historical patterns; actual odds may vary. Recent finishes are listed as position/finishing margin with Equibase Speed Figures (ESF) in parentheses where available.
Book Smart (Post 1, 7yo Gelding, Sire: Stanford, Weight: 122 lbs)
Jockey: Mike E. Smith – Hall of Famer with a 25% win rate at Santa Anita; expert at breaking sharply from the rail.
Trainer: Robert B. Hess, Jr. – Solid with veterans (20% win rate in sprints); focuses on consistent performers.
Analysis: Seasoned gelding with tactical speed; the inside post allows him to save ground and stalk. Strength: Experience and rail affinity. Weakness: Age may limit late kick against younger speed. Logical board hitter if pace melts.
Recent Finishes: 4th by 3 lengths (92 ESF) in a Santa Anita allowance (12/28/2025); 2nd by neck (95) in a Del Mar stakes (11/15/2025); 1st by 1 length (93) in a Los Alamitos optional claimer (10/10/2025).
M/L Odds: 6-1.
Drop Um (Post 2, 4yo Colt, Sire: Far From Over, Weight: 124 lbs)
Jockey: Kyle Frey – Aggressive rider with 18% win rate in Cal-bred sprints; good at rating young horses.
Trainer: Felix Rondan – Underrated with improvers (19% win rate); breeds his own stock.
Analysis: Lightly raced colt stepping up; has shown early foot in allowances. Strength: Youth and light weight edge. Weakness: Class test may expose inexperience. Value longshot for exotics.
Recent Finishes: 1st by 2 lengths (90 ESF) in a Santa Anita claimer (12/20/2025); 3rd by 1.5 lengths (88) in a Del Mar allowance (11/20/2025); 2nd by head (87) in a Los Alamitos maiden (10/5/2025).
M/L Odds: 8-1.
Big City Lights (Post 3, 6yo Horse, Sire: Mr. Big, Weight: 124 lbs)
Jockey: Mirco Demuro – International talent with sharp timing; 22% win rate in U.S. sprints.
Trainer: Richard Mandella – Hall of Famer (28% win rate in stakes); excels with sprinters.
Analysis: Defending champion with explosive speed; dominated last year. Recent form includes a ninth in turf stakes, but back on dirt suits. Strength: Proven winner here (7 wins in 15 starts, $598,920 earnings). Weakness: Layoff since Nov 30 may need sharpness. Heavy favorite if ready.
Recent Finishes: 9th by 5 lengths (85 ESF) in Del Mar Stormy Liberal (11/30/2025); 1st by 7.75 lengths (102) in this race (1/18/2025); 2nd by 1 length (98) in 2023 edition (1/21/2023).
M/L Odds: 2-1 (Favorite).
Speedy Wilson (Post 4, 5yo Gelding, Sire: Tough Sunday, Weight: 122 lbs)
Jockey: Armando Ayuso – Rising star with 17% win rate; handles speed types well.
Trainer: Phil D’Amato – Turf/sprint specialist (24% win rate at Santa Anita); overachieves with Cal-breds.
Analysis: Multiple stakes winner with closing kick; recent third in G1 Malibu shows class. Strength: Versatile and in peak form ($330,488 earnings). Weakness: Mid-pack style risks traffic. Strong win threat.
Recent Finishes: 3rd by 2 lengths (96 ESF) in Santa Anita G1 Malibu (12/28/2025); 1st by 1.5 lengths (94) in a Del Mar allowance (11/10/2025); 4th by 3 lengths (90) in a Santa Anita stakes (10/15/2025).
M/L Odds: 3-1.
Man O Rose (Post 5, 5yo Horse, Sire: Stanford, Weight: 122 lbs)
Jockey: Edwin Maldonado – Santa Anita regular (21% win rate in sprints); aggressive from outside.
Trainer: Phil D’Amato (second entrant) – See above; doubles chances with similar profiles.
Analysis: Stakes winner with front-end speed; can press or lead. Strength: Durable and track affinity. Weakness: Outside post may force wide trip. Upset potential if loose early.
Recent Finishes: 2nd by nose (93 ESF) in a Del Mar stakes (12/15/2025); 1st by 2 lengths (95) in a Santa Anita allowance (11/5/2025); 3rd by 1 length (92) in a Los Alamitos optional (10/20/2025).
M/L Odds: 4-1.
