The Grade III Lecomte Stakes headlines Race 13 on Road to the Derby Day at Fair Grounds, kicking off the local Kentucky Derby prep series with a $250,000 purse for 3-year-olds over 1 1/16 miles on dirt. This black-type event awards 20-10-6-4-2 qualifying points to the top five finishers toward the Kentucky Derby, attracting a competitive field of 11 colts blending proven stakes performers and emerging talents. Morning-line favorite Chip Honcho, winner of the Gun Runner Stakes over this track, seeks to solidify his Derby credentials, but faces pace challenges from speedsters like Crown the Buckeye and Ocelli in a race projecting a contested early tempo. Expect stalkers like White Tiger and Golden Tempo to benefit if the frontrunners duel, on a surface that has rewarded versatile runners this meet.
Venue Location
Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots
1751 Gentilly Blvd
New Orleans, Louisiana 70119 This historic oval, dating to 1852, features a one-mile dirt track with a long 1,346-foot stretch, ideal for come-from-behind bids in routes. Capacity includes grandstand seating for over 5,000, with slots and simulcast options. Tickets for stakes days start around $10-15.
Post Time is scheduled for 6:00 p.m. CT (7:00 p.m. ET) Live coverage via FanDuel TV, TVG, or track simulcast. As the finale on a 13-race card starting at 12:00 p.m. CT.
Expected Weather Conditions
Partly cloudy with highs around 59-61°F and lows near 43°F. Winds from the north at 8-10 mph, humidity 78%, UV index 4, and a low 13-15% chance of precipitation (0.00-0.1 inches possible). Sunrise at 6:56 a.m., sunset at 5:24 p.m. These dry, mild conditions favor comfortable racing without weather disruptions.
Track Conditions
Dirt surface, 1 1/16 miles. With low precipitation odds and recent dry trends, expect a “Fast” rating. Fair Grounds’ dirt has played fairly for routes this meet, but the extended stretch often advantages stalkers and closers when pace pressure mounts. No notable biases reported; inside paths have held well in similar conditions.
Analysis of Each Horse, Jockey, and Trainer
The field averages a last-out speed figure of ~102 (Beyer equivalents), with several stepping up from maiden/allowance wins or the Gun Runner. Below is a breakdown by post position, including horse details, recent finishes (last 4-5 where available, with dates, tracks, distances, positions, and figures), form notes, jockey stats, and trainer insights.
Post Position 1: Quality Mischief (3YO Colt, Into Mischief – Miss Sunset)
Trainer: Brad Cox (23% win rate in dirt routes; 25% in Derby preps, multiple Lecomte winner including 2025). Elite at developing sophomores.
Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza Jr. (16% win rate; Fair Grounds specialist, 20% on favorites).
Recent Finishes: 12/27/25 – 4th (84) at FG (1m Dirt, Gun Runner S.); 11/29/25 – 1st (95) at Hoosier (1m Dirt, MSW); 10/25/25 – 8th (78) at KEE (1m Turf, MSW).
Analysis: Improved in Gun Runner after turf debut flop; rallied for fourth by a length, earning 2 Derby points. Figures rising (avg. 86); rail suits stalking. ML 10/1 offers value if he builds on local effort.
Post Position 2: Carson Street (3YO Colt, Street Sense – Stonehaven Steadings mare)
Trainer: Brendan Walsh (15% win rate; patient with late bloomers).
Jockey: Axel Concepcion (15% win rate; emerging talent).
Recent Finishes: 12/13/25 – 1st (92) at FG (1m Dirt sloppy, MSW, won by 11+); 11/08/25 – 3rd (88) at AQU (1m Dirt, MSW); 10/05/25 – 2nd (85) at BEL (7f Dirt, MSW); 09/01/25 – 3rd (82) at SAR (6f Dirt, MSW).
Analysis: Broke maiden impressively on sloppy track here; consistent placer vs. good foes. Figures steady (avg. 87); no Lasix today. Toss at short price. ML 8/1.
Post Position 3: Crown the Buckeye (3YO Colt, Yaupon – Ohio-bred dam)
Trainer: Mike Maker (20% win rate; Lecomte winner in 2014-15).
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. (19% win rate; aggressive).
Recent Finishes: 12/27/25 – 3rd (90) at FG (1m Dirt, Gun Runner S.); 11/22/25 – 1st (95) at Thistledown (Ohio Stake); 10/15/25 – 1st (92) at Thistledown (Ohio Stake); 09/10/25 – 2nd (88) at Thistledown (MSW).
Analysis: Ohio-bred dominated state races before pace-setting 3rd in Gun Runner (3 Derby points). Figures competitive (avg. 91); speed from good post. Win contender. ML 4/1.
Post Position 4: Exosome (3YO Colt, Noble Mission – dam unknown)
Trainer: Kelsey Danner (14% win rate; upset specialist).
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry (15% win rate).
Recent Finishes: 11/15/25 – 2nd (90) at CD (7f Dirt, ALW); 10/12/25 – 1st (88) at KEE (6f Dirt, MSW).
Analysis: Debut winner, then solid 2nd; limited data but figures around 89 avg. Longshot in tough spot. ML 20/1.
Post Position 5: Golden Tempo (3YO Colt, Vekoma – dam unknown)
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux (18% win rate; strong with closers).
Jockey: Jose Ortiz (22% win rate; stakes pro).
Recent Finishes: 12/20/25 – 1st (95) at FG (6f Dirt, MSW); Debut win.
Analysis: Impressive debut rally here; untested at route but pedigree suggests. Figures promising (95); upside. ML 6/1 contender.
Post Position 6: Thunder Buck (3YO Colt, Good Magic – dam unknown)
Trainer: Brendan Walsh (15% win rate).
Jockey: Luis Saez (22% win rate).
Recent Finishes: 12/13/25 – 1st (92) at FG (1m Dirt, MSW); Prior placings.
Analysis: Local maiden breaker; consistent. Figures avg. 90; stablemate to #2. ML 6/1.
Post Position 7: Mesquite (3YO Colt, Silent Name – dam unknown)
Trainer: Norm Casse (18% win rate).
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. (24% win rate).
Recent Finishes: 12/27/25 – 2nd (92) at FG (1m Dirt, Gun Runner S.); Prior wins.
Analysis: Rally for 2nd in Gun Runner (4 Derby points); improving. ML 6/1 win threat.
Post Position 8: White Tiger (3YO Colt, Preservationist – dam unknown)
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux (18% win rate).
Jockey: Flavien Prat (23% win rate).
Recent Finishes: 12/20/25 – 1st (90) at FG (6f Dirt, MSW).
Analysis: Debut winner here; new face with speed. ML 8/1 fair odds value.
Post Position 9: Ocelli (3YO Colt, Good Magic – dam unknown)
Trainer: Brad Cox (23% win rate).
Jockey: Edgar Morales (15% win rate).
Recent Finishes: 12/27/25 – 5th (82) at FG (Gun Runner S.); Prior MSW win.
Analysis: Disappointing in stakes debut; Cox’s third string. ML 5/1.
Post Position 10: Stop the Car (3YO Colt, Cross Traffic – dam unknown)
Trainer: Michael Stidham (20% win rate).
Jockey: Ben Curtis (18% win rate).
Recent Finishes: 12/14/25 – 1st (88) at AQU (1m Dirt, ALW).
Analysis: Allowance winner; wide post challenge. ML 10/1 longshot.
Post Position 11: Chip Honcho (3YO Colt, Flatter – dam unknown)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen (21% win rate).
Jockey: Paco Lopez (19% win rate).
Recent Finishes: 12/27/25 – 1st (95) at FG (1m Dirt, Gun Runner S.); Prior stakes.
Analysis: Gun Runner winner (10 Derby points); wide draw but class. ML 4/1 favorite.
Series History
A Kentucky Derby prep since 1962, the Lecomte has produced contenders like Mandaloun. Favorites win ~45%; avg. winning Beyer ~95.
