Tuesday, September 26, 2023
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Opinion: Seahawks at Lions

I am tired of all the banter via social media, all those podcasts that are readily available on the Internet or Twitter, (X,) Instagram, etc. are you? Sharp vs. public, line moves vs. what the perception of what the numbers should be? I ignore the sharp vs. public wagers, plus a line that hasn’t moved along with a huge disparity of the dollars wagered on the favorites or dogs.

Thursday night, Vikings at Eagles

If you bet the Vikings early on Thursday and got +7/+65.5 or +6 you won or pushed. The line eventually moved down to -.5.5 at some books. So if you jumped in at -5.5, were you a sharp better or simply betting a key number that was lower than -6?

That is why it is important to have more than one out. I jumped in at -5.5 and a long time investor friend of mine had the dog at +6.5.

Monday night, Bills at Jets

Before the Jets game kicked off I bet the Cowboys at -3, then Rodgers was injured, (you can see my selection after that game kicks-off at SportsWatchMonitor.com. That line moved 6.5 points when it was first posted after Rodgers was injured and it was then posted with the Cowboys up to -9.5. 

When the 49ers were without Montana and Young, enter Steve Bono

Does anyone remember Steve Bono? He warmed the bench during the 1989 and 1990 seasons as the 49ers’ third-string quarterback behind Joe Montana and Steve Young. In 1991, with Montana lost for the season, and Steve Young being injured mid-season, Bono started six games. He went 5-1 as a starter and finished the season fourth in passer rating. Bono was an unknown when compared to Montana and Young. So now it is Zach Wilson replacing Aaron Rodgers and the Jets are a substancial road dog with a total that’s well below the key number of 40. I see current totals of 38.5/38 and 37.5.

Now I look at the Seahawks at Lions

Have you ever heard this old adage before,” No team is as bad as they previously looked vs. a team off a win vs. last years Super Bowl winners.

How would have the Lions fared in the Chiefs game if Kelcie and Jones played? Well, the “sharps or is it the “public” that has moved the line from -2.5 to -3.5 points favoring Kansas City?

Do the Lions Roar?

The Lions are 10-01 ATS in their last 11 games while the Seahawks are on a negative 1-8 ATS streak.Detroit hosts a Seattle team that played the worst second half of any team in Week one gaining one first down and 12 yards in the second half against the Rams who took the field without Cooper Kupp. It was the Seahawks worst defeat at home since December 17, 2017 when the Rams crushed Seattle (42-07.)

All the sharps are on the Seahawks, I did not make a wager on this game but if you are going to back Seattle getting +4.5 keep in mind the Seahawks are without both starting offensive tackles, Abraham Lucas and Charles Cross, they both left in the third quarter against the Rams. 

My numbers have Detroit as a 5.5 point favorite, I will just watch this one. Often the best bets you can make is the one that you don’t.

Good fortune with your investments this weekend!

Troy Wins

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