Thursday, January 26, 2023
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How to Bet the CFB Playoffs

Two Options on How to Bet the CFB Playoffs

Welcome Back Gridiron Gold Bettors!

The college football playoffs have arrived. Let’s Go!

Two Games ‘Til Glory

The last time a #1 seed lost to a #4 seed in a CFB playoff game was the 2017-18 season, when 4th ranked Alabama beat #1 ranked Clemson, 24-6.Despite being the 4-seed that year, the Crimson Tide were 3-point favorites, so we don’t classify that result as an upset.Where #1 ranked teams have shown signs of struggling is in their six championship game appearances.Straight up, the #1 seed is just 2-4 when playing for a National Title.

However, that stat presented by itself is very misleading.

  • #1 ranked teams have made the championship game in six of the eight years. (75%)
  • The #4 ranked team has made the championship game in only two of the eight years (25%), and in one of those years, 4th-ranked Alabama was actually the betting favorite.

Our point is that historically, not all four teams left are equal.

The Case For Betting On #1 Georgia This Year

​A $50 futures bet @ -125 would pay out $40 in profit if the Bulldogs are crowned National Champs.

  • Currently, Georgia is a -6.5 favorite to beat Ohio State.
  • At -260 on the moneyline, the odds suggest that Georgia has just over a 70% win probability against the Buckeyes.

Many would argue that Georgia will face their toughest opponent in the semi-final, regardless of whether #2 Michigan or #3 TCU wins the other game.

The Case For Betting The Field

​Interesting to see what happens if we play the the odds on the remaining three teams, and spread our $50 on Michigan, TCU and Ohio St., instead of betting it all on Georgia.​

  • With a $25 wager on Michigan, after we subtract our TCU and Ohio St. bets, we are still left with a $50 profit if the Wolverines can win two more games.
  • A small $5 wager on TCU gives us a $45 profit if the Horned Frogs can pull off back-to-back surprising upsets.
  • $20 on the Buckeyes to be the last team standing pays out $42 in profit.

As a bettor, it’s interesting to look at our futures options. We can take the consensus favorite and bet $50 to win $40 in profit on the defending champs from Georgia.Or, we can take that $50 and spread it over the other teams and make the same profit (or slightly more) by having three teams to cheer for instead of one.I’m leaning Option B and betting the field.
If you’re more interested in placing a college football pick on each game we have you covered at Gridiron Gold with guaranteed college football bowl game picks. I also have my bowl game of the year pick ready now.


Happy New Year

Dennis Stagliano

Gridiron Gold

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Dennis Stagliano
Dennis Staglianohttp://www.gridirongold.com/
Dennis Stagliano is an award winning football handicapper with an earned reputation as the #1 documented sports handicapper since 1981 for excellence in college and pro football and college and pro basketball handicapping. National sports writer and the Director of the American Association of Documented Handicappers said this about Dennis. "The best football handicapper I have ever had the privilege to monitor. A splendid performer, past, present and I sure wouldn't want to bet against the future". Now that's a pretty remarkable accomplishment! Well, Martin was right, because Dennis has a lifetime record of excellence that has never been matched. "The Highest Capital Ever Achieved in an AADSS Football Handicapping Contest, $10,000 Bankroll Turned into $123,000" - American Association of Documented Sports Services "An Award Winning Sports Service". Sporting Times Magazine "Gridiron Gold is an Investment Not a Gamble" - Gambling Times Magazine" Dennis has outstanding documented credentials as a football and basketball handicapper. *Rated Nations No. 1 Football & Basketball Handicapper - H&H Sporting Times *Rated Nations No. 1 Football & Basketball Handicapper - Experts Magazine *Rated Nations No. 1 Football & Basketball Handicapper - Million$ Magazine *Rated Nations No. 1 Football & Basketball Handicapper - Sports Features Syndicate. Ron Sataloff, President, Sports Features Syndicate Inc. had this to say about the Dennis. "65% Football Handicapping Winning Pct. And For the First Time Ever, a Sports Service Football Handicapper Went the Entire Season Picking 4 Games Weekly In our National Newspaper Professional Handicapping Contest Without a Single Losing Week"! Dennis Stagliano's reputation is one of integrity, honesty and long term consistent winning results. Gridiron Gold was the first sports service to post their football and basketball picks right after kickoff. Unlike others, their entire season record is visible. This ensures customers, without a shadow of a doubt, that they're getting the same sports picks as everyone else, and there are no false records posted. We know of no others, that have been as transparent as long as Gridiron Gold handicappers.

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