Two Options on How to Bet the CFB Playoffs
Welcome Back Gridiron Gold Bettors!
The college football playoffs have arrived. Let’s Go!
Two Games ‘Til Glory
The last time a #1 seed lost to a #4 seed in a CFB playoff game was the 2017-18 season, when 4th ranked Alabama beat #1 ranked Clemson, 24-6.Despite being the 4-seed that year, the Crimson Tide were 3-point favorites, so we don’t classify that result as an upset.Where #1 ranked teams have shown signs of struggling is in their six championship game appearances.Straight up, the #1 seed is just 2-4 when playing for a National Title.
However, that stat presented by itself is very misleading.
- #1 ranked teams have made the championship game in six of the eight years. (75%)
- The #4 ranked team has made the championship game in only two of the eight years (25%), and in one of those years, 4th-ranked Alabama was actually the betting favorite.
Our point is that historically, not all four teams left are equal.
The Case For Betting On #1 Georgia This Year
A $50 futures bet @ -125 would pay out $40 in profit if the Bulldogs are crowned National Champs.
- Currently, Georgia is a -6.5 favorite to beat Ohio State.
- At -260 on the moneyline, the odds suggest that Georgia has just over a 70% win probability against the Buckeyes.
Many would argue that Georgia will face their toughest opponent in the semi-final, regardless of whether #2 Michigan or #3 TCU wins the other game.
The Case For Betting The Field
Interesting to see what happens if we play the the odds on the remaining three teams, and spread our $50 on Michigan, TCU and Ohio St., instead of betting it all on Georgia.
- With a $25 wager on Michigan, after we subtract our TCU and Ohio St. bets, we are still left with a $50 profit if the Wolverines can win two more games.
- A small $5 wager on TCU gives us a $45 profit if the Horned Frogs can pull off back-to-back surprising upsets.
- $20 on the Buckeyes to be the last team standing pays out $42 in profit.
As a bettor, it’s interesting to look at our futures options. We can take the consensus favorite and bet $50 to win $40 in profit on the defending champs from Georgia.Or, we can take that $50 and spread it over the other teams and make the same profit (or slightly more) by having three teams to cheer for instead of one.I’m leaning Option B and betting the field.
If you’re more interested in placing a college football pick on each game we have you covered at Gridiron Gold with guaranteed college football bowl game picks. I also have my bowl game of the year pick ready now.
Happy New Year
Dennis Stagliano
Gridiron Gold
