Focus On Just The NBA Tip…
Of course, I’m referring to the opening tip, and I’m talking about NBA First Field Goal Betting.
If you are not yet familiar with this trendy NBA Prop Bet… you soon will be.
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When it comes to betting which player will score the first field goal, if you can figure out who will win the opening tip, you have a big advantage over the sportsbooks.
A quick glance at the stats page tells us that the Minnesota Timberwolves win a lot of opening tips.
In fact, they had won 76% of all opening tips at the time of this writing, which led the league.
The T-Wolves played at home against Portland on Wednesday night.
We were curious to see what else the stats page could teach us.
Using The Stats Page For Betting
The team stats page showed us that both Minnesota and Portland are very good – when it comes to tipoffs.
What also jumped off the stats page was Portland’s inability to translate winning the opening tip into scoring the game’s first field goal.
The Blazers have started 66% of the games with the first possession but scored the first basket less than 50% of the time.
Meanwhile, Minny scores the game’s first hoop 66% of the time, or 23% more often than Portland.
I found all those numbers interesting and went searching for more.
Next Level Analytics
I learned that the two big men jumping off in the Portland vs. Minnesota game were Jusuf Nurkic vs. Rudy Gobert.
Gobert is two inches taller and weighs 40 pounds less than Nurkic.
One would think that those facts have to be some sort of advantage in a jump ball contest.
With my research completed, I gave the opening tip advantage to Minnesota and turned my focus to some T-Wolves players and their odds of scoring the game’s first field goal.
Show Me The Money
The odds table below is interesting.
It is the T-Wolves who win 76% of the opening jump balls, and it is the T-Wolves who we determined have the opening tip advantage.
Yet, Damian Lillard (Portland) is the betting favorite. What’s up with that Mr. Oddsmaker?
The Gift That Keeps On Giving
Because the stats page was helpful to me earlier, I turned to it again.
This time, I wanted to see if it could help us narrow my list of players to bet on.
It didn’t disappoint.
| Focusing on the individual player stats section, I can see some great information for me to use, if not today, definitely down the road. Did any of us know that Joel Embiid takes over 50% of the 76ers first field goal attempts? That seems like good information to have stored away. The Dallas Mavericks have a pretty good player named Luka Doncic. Yet it is Tim Hardaway Jr. who attempts 42% of the Mavs first shots. When we looked for information on some Timberwolves players, we learned that: Rudy Gobert attempts the first field goal 34% of the time. Eight times in the 32 games (25%) he started, Gobert scored the first basket. In their last ten games, Gobert has scored the first field goal three times. (30%) That was enough info for us to throw down a half-unit on Rudy G. at +550. Analytical Deep Dive… Again Because the odds can be so enticing for a bet like this, we are all about splitting units and sprinkling money on a couple of players. To help us select our second Minnesota player, we jumped into the Timberwolves last five box scores and clicked on the play-by-play tab. This is what I learned. Over the last five games, Rudy Gobert and Kyle Anderson each scored the T-Wolves opening basket once. During those same five games, Anthony Edwards scored the first field goal for Minnesota three times. I could select Edwards at +550 and have a couple of chalky options to root for. Or I could get aggressive and look at Kyle Anderson +1100 as a potential longshot with a chance to payout. I was hoping to get paid, so I dropped a half until on Anderson (+1100) to pair with our Gobert ticket. How Does This All Play Out? There was great drama right off the top. (Rudy Gobert won the opening tip, increasing the T-Wolves overall record to 30-9 this year.) Chaos and mayhem soon followed. (Both teams combined to miss the first five shots of the game.) A few of our bets included. Finally, there was the agony of defeat. (The Blazers Jerami Grant (+600) made a lay-up and scored the game’s first field goal.) I lost my bet. But with my stats page resource, I’m ready for more NBA action on first field goal betting. I expect my future bets will be a winning NBA picks. Best of luck with all your upcoming NBA picks and college basketball picks this weekend! |
